NLCS Game 3: LA Dodgers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

The LA Dodgers and New York Mets play Game 3 of their best-of-7 NLCS Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 8:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1

New York won 7-3 in Los Angeles on Monday to tie the series while covering as a +140 road underdog. SS Francisco Lindor opened up the scoring with a solo HR in the top of the 1st and the Mets made it 6-0 before the end of the 2nd when 3B Mark Vientos hit a grand slam.

The Dodgers run of 3 straight shutouts and record-tying 33 consecutive scoreless innings in the playoffs ended on Lindor’s HR. LA was doubled-up in hits (10-5) and home runs (2-1) and trailed 18-8 in total bases.

Dodgers at Mets projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Luis Severino

Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.55 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 0 K in a 6-5 loss Tuesday at San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the ALDS
• 2024 postseason stats: 0-1, 10.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 5 IP
• Career vs. Mets: 1-1, 5.00 ERA (27 IP, 15 ER), 24 H, 8 BB, 28 K in 5 starts

Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 182 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 7-6 loss at Philadelphia Phillies on Oct. 6 in Game 2 of the ALDS
• 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 12 IP
• Career vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 10.50 ERA (6 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2 appearances (1 start)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:27 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Dodgers 5

LEAN METS (-110).

New York has won both of its home games this postseason and is 3-1 in its last 4 playoff games. But this is only a lean because the Dodgers were the better team this season and because LA has won its last 3 games vs. the Mets in New York.

PASS.

The Mets will cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs, but they are not worth the risk. I advise passing on this bet and playing the ML and/or total instead, but if you are comfortable playing the spread here then you can divvy up units between the run line and ML.

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in each of the 1st 2 games this series and is 5-1 in New York’s last 5 games this postseason, also being 7-2 in all of its 9 games this playoffs. For LA, the Over is 5-1-1 in its 7 games during the postseason.

The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 NY-LA matchups.

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