ESPN's SP+ prediction for Florida's home coming game vs. Kentucky

Florida football prepares for its annual homecoming game this weekend, with the Kentucky Wildcats serving as this year’s opponent inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Gators welcome the ‘Cats to the Swamp amidst another frustrating season for Billy Napier’s squad, which enters the matchup an even 3-3 overall with a 1-2 mark in Southeastern Conference play. The next five opponents on the schedule are top-25 programs — four currently in the top 10 — so this is an important game for the Orange and Blue.

The Wildcats have also dealt with mediocrity bringing an identical overall tally into play but only one win in three tries against SEC opponents. Last week, Kentucky was upset by the surprising Vanderbilt Commodores at home.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for Week 8 of college football, which narrowly favors UF with a 56% chance of victory by a margin of 2.3 points. The computer model projects a final score of 28.5.

Napier and Co. sit at No. 23 out of 134 FBS schools (12.6 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while Mark Stoops’ team is 23rd (12.8 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Coming up for the Gators

The Gators host the Wildcats inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, for this year’s homecoming game. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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