NLCS Game 4: LA Dodgers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions
By Nathan Beighle,
6 hours ago
The LA Dodgers and New York Mets meet in Game 4 of the best-of-7 NLCS Thursday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’sMLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Metsodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
NLCS: Dodgers lead 2-1; Dodgers won regular-season series 4-2
The Dodgers kicked off the series with a 9-0 win Sunday and followed that up with a 7-3 home loss Monday. LA’s 8-0 win in Game 3 Wednesday almost mirrored Game 1, as the Dodgers started scoring early and never let up.
The Dodgers beat the San Diego Padres 3-2 in their NLDS, going 1-1 on the road. LA has tallied at least 5 runs in 5 of 8 postseason games. The Dodgers finished the regular season 98-64 straight up and 81-81 against the spread (ATS).
The Mets, who finished the regular season 3rd in the NL East, advanced to the NLCS by taking down the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers, the winners of the NL East and NL Central, respectively. New York beat Milwaukee in 2 of 3 games and Philadelphia in 3 of 4. It was 89-73 straight up and 84-78 ATS during the regular season.
Dodgers at Mets projected starters
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 regular-season starts. The rookie ended with a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 90 innings.
Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Padres in Game 5 of NLDS Friday
2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 5.63 ERA (8 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 2 starts
2024 road splits (regular season): 4-1, 2.06 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 8 starts
Career vs. Mets: 0-0, 1 home start (April 19), 6 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 9-4 win
Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He finished with a 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 170 1/3 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory in Game 4 of NLDS vs. Phillies Oct. 9
2024 postseason stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (11 IP), 0.82 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts
2024 home splits (regular season): 5-5, 3.64 ERA (84 IP, 34 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 15 starts
2024 vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 1 home start (May 28), 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 3-0 loss
Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 3-2, 2.04 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 13 appearances (10 starts)
Career postseason stats: 0-1, 2.43 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 7 appearances (6 starts)
Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Dodgers 3
BET METS (+115).
The Dodgers haven’t performed well in the postseason when coming off an electric night offensively. Against the Padres, they scored 7 or more runs twice and followed those performances up by scoring 2 both times. Against the Mets, they put up 9 runs in Game 1 and then scored just 3 in Game 2.
Quintana has also been electric on the mound during his 2 postseason starts. In those 2 games, the Mets allowed just 3 runs. They are 3-0 after a loss in the playoffs as well. That said, back METS (+115).
PASS.
There’s no great value on the run line. Each of the games have had a decisive winner, so if there is a play, it would be on the Dodgers as run-line favorites. However, the Mets’ moneyline is the preferred route for this one.
BET OVER 7 (-120).
Both teams have been on fire offensively. The Mets have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of 10 postseason games and are 8-2 O/U, having allowed at least 7 runs in 3 of their last 6.
The Dodgers are 6-1-1 O/U in their 8 playoff games. They have allowed at least 5 runs in 4 of the 8 games and are still 2-1 O/U after scoring 7 or more runs. Take OVER 7 (-120).
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