Why the Georgia Bulldogs will win against the Texas Longhorns

The Georgia Bulldogs are underdogs for the first time in more than two years, and there are multiple reasons.

Georgia has looked inconsistent in the past few weeks, especially with an unimpressive 41-31 victory against Mississippi State in which its secondary struggled.

In contrast, this week’s opponent, Texas, has looked like a juggernaut. It is 6-0 with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points per game.

As a result, Georgia has just a 23.8% chance of winning, according to ESPN. Several media pundits believe Texas will come out victorious, but I’m here to give Georgia fans optimism. I see some areas where Georgia can take advantage of Texas and achieve victory.

What are four reasons Georgia can beat Texas

Benefit of the doubt?

Georgia has looked much less dominant than its national championship teams, but here’s the thing. The Bulldogs have only lost one game in the regular season since 2020.

Ever since then, there have been several opponents, regular and postseason, that have tried to get them to break, but only Alabama has been successful in doing so. This includes several SEC juggernauts that Georgia has faced, such as No. 1 Tennessee a few years ago.

Sure, Texas looks the part as the most difficult opponent Georgia has faced in the past couple of years, and Georgia has looked sloppy on occasions. However, if there’s any team that deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s the Bulldogs.

“Georgia has not looked good but remember what we saw yesterday, perhaps a look ahead to the weekend in Austin. Carson Beck is playing well; there are elements to Georgia’s team that are not,” Paul Finebaum said. “But they will be a formidable foe for Texas. Texas has seen some good teams, but they have not seen anyone quite like the Dawgs.”

Texas has not played anyone as difficult as ‘Bama

So far, Texas has looked dominant and it’s even more impressive when you consider their competition has been strong. The Longhorns beat No. 10 Michigan and No. 18 Oklahoma by a combined score of 65-15.

Still have not played an opponent as tough as some Georgia has faced. Clemson is a top 10 team, and Georgia crushed it 34-3.

Then there’s Alabama. Despite the upset loss to Vandy and nearly being upset by South Carolina, they’re a top-10 team, too. The Bulldogs’ game against Alabama looked ugly at first, but Georgia only needed around 20 minutes to come back from down 30-7 to take a lead. If a few plays were different, Georgia wins that game. Compared to Texas, Georgia is more battle-tested for these moments.

Georgia has more to play for

Even with one loss to Alabama, Georgia still has a 68% chance at the postseason. With a loss to Texas, Georgia essentially finds itself in no-man’s land in the SEC. Having two losses in the SEC would put it below Texas and Alabama, even if the Crimson Tide suffer another loss. A loss at Texas would essentially eliminate Georgia from the SEC championship.

With this in mind, the Bulldogs are going to play with the most urgency they’ve played with all season. This is where leadership and mental toughness comes in.

Kirby Smart is the most experienced big-game coach in college football right now. He’s had his back against the wall multiple times in his coaching career, and he’s had many years to prepare for this moment.

Carson Beck is better than Quinn Ewers

Many people think Georgia-Texas could be a shootout, which means it’ll come down to which one of Quinn Ewers or Carson Beck can perform better. Carson Beck has been up and down this season, but he has an advantage over Ewers.

Since 2023, Carson Beck has totaled 5,759 yards, 39 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 165.2 passer rating. Quinn Ewers has 4,369 yards, 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 159.6 passer rating. Sure, Beck’s numbers are down this year, but Beck has superior numbers.

Against ranked teams it’s close, but Beck has the edge. Beck has 1,818 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions against ranked opponents, while Ewers has 1,592 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions.