Voters in Colorado , New York , and Utah are heading to the polls Tuesday, where they'll decide on a host of congressional primaries . Meanwhile, South Carolina voters are returning to the polls to decide on several primary runoffs.
All eyes are focused on progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), who could become the first member of the "Squad" ousted from Congress if he loses a primary challenge due to his stance regarding the Israel-Hamas war. Another controversial lawmaker, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), is hoping to win a GOP primary in a new district.
Former President Donald Trump has tipped his hand in several primary contests, specifically in Utah and Colorado, once again testing the power of his endorsement strength.
Here are the Washington Examiner's top races to watch:
Will Jamaal Bowman survive the wrath of AIPAC?
The most high-profile primary Tuesday will be Bowman's fight to beat back a challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a centrist Democrat, in New York's 16th Congressional District.
The primary has grown increasingly acrimonious as Bowman has faced backlash over his support of pro-Palestinian protests that have erupted across the nation, which has angered Jewish allies and cost him key endorsements.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has invested nearly $2 million into Latimer’s campaign and, by the time of the primary later this month, will have spent nearly $25 million in the race. The primary in New York's 16th District is the most expensive this cycle, with outside spending surpassing $11.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Bowman's progressive allies on Capitol Hill have rallied to his aid. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) hosted a “GOTV Rally” to boost Bowman before the primary, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) making an appearance. Pro-Israel lawmakers and establishment Democrats, including Hillary Clinton , are backing Latimer.
AOC faces a Democratic challenger
Marty Dolan, a 66-year-old investment banker, hopes to unseat Ocasio-Cortez for New York's 14th District, but he faces an uphill climb.
Ocasio-Cortez remains a well-known two-term member of Congress who easily won her last primary challenge by nearly 75%. The New York congresswoman also has a war chest of roughly $5 million cash on hand, far above Dolan’s $6,700, according to campaign finance records.
However, that hasn't stopped the conservative business group Job Creators Network from investing $100,000 on billboards in Times Square slamming Ocasio-Cortez and urging voters to support Dolan.
Who will replace Ken Buck?
There will be two contests for Colorado's 4th District after former Republican Rep. Ken Buck left Congress early in March. Former Parker, Colorado, Mayor Greg Lopez is the front-runner against three other candidates to win the special election to finish Buck's term through the rest of this year.
Lopez is not running in the GOP primary for the district to succeed Buck. Instead, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), of the state's 3rd District, is running in the 4th District to avoid another tough reelection battle against Democrat Adam Frisch, who nearly unseated her during the 2022 midterm elections.
Boebert is the front-runner in the race and has the backing of Trump, despite the scandal that erupted after Trump's security detail admonished the Colorado congresswoman for her drunken antics at the New York Young Republican Club’s annual gala in Manhattan last year.
Boebert also faced backlash after vaping and groping an unidentified male who attended a Beetlejuice production with her, which led to her being asked to leave a theater in Colorado.
Three Democrats are also running in the primary but face little chance of winning in November due to the Republican dominance.
The battle to replace Boebert
Six Republicans are running in Colorado's 3rd District GOP primary after Boebert jumped ship to run in the 4th District. Frisch seeks another chance to enter Congress after nearly toppling Boebert in the district in 2022.
Boebert’s switch likely boosts Republicans’ chances of holding on to the 3rd District, with the Cook Political Report rating the seat from a “toss-up” to “lean Republican."
Democrats, including Frisch, have invested roughly $500,000 in uplifting Ron Hanks, a former state representative who has disputed the results of the 2020 election, at the expense of Jeff Hurd, who would be a tougher opponent for Frisch.
Who will win the race to replace Rep. Doug Lamborn?
In Colorado's 5th District, Dave Williams, the head of the Colorado Republican Party, and Jeff Crank, a former talk radio host, will face off for the GOP primary to replace nine-term Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO).
Williams is backed by Trump, yet conservative groups have spent more than $1 million to defeat Williams. Meanwhile, Crank is endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), and House Armed Service Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL). Crank is expected to win the primary, which would dent Trump's endorsement record on Tuesday.
Whichever Republican wins the primary will run against either River Gassen or Joe Reagan, though the seat is solidly Republican. Trump won 53% of the district’s vote in 2020 and 56% in 2016.
Other races where Trump's endorsement power will be tested
Trump has tipped his hand for Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado's 8th District GOP primary to take on freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO). In addition to Trump, Evans also has the backing of Speaker Mike Johnson as he hopes to defeat his top opponent, former GOP state Rep. Janak Joshi.
Elsewhere, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R-UT), a Trump critic, hopes to survive competition from Phil Lyman, who has denied the results of the 2020 election, in the GOP gubernatorial primary. The governor was booed at the state's nominating convention by delegates who claimed he was too centrist. Notably, Trump has not yet thrown in support for Lyman in the contest.
Cox is a popular incumbent and will likely defeat Lyman, meaning a Trump endorsement could lower the strength of his support.
Republicans choose candidate to replace Mitt Romney
Four Republicans are battling in the primary to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who twice voted to impeach Trump and announced he would not seek another term in the Senate.
Rep. John Curtis (R-UT), of the 3rd District, is the front-runner in the race according to most polls and has the financial advantage with roughly $970,000 between April 8 and June 5, according to recent campaign finance disclosures. Unlike the other candidates, Curtis has not endorsed Trump's reelection bid, though he claims he will support the Republican candidate for president.
Trump is backing Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs who was selected by the Utah GOP convention to be the party's nominee, but Staggs has struggled to translate this support into success in polling and fundraising. Meanwhile, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has the most amount of money after loaning his campaign $3 million.
A Utah congresswoman fights to keep her seat
The Trump-endorsed Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) is facing a battle from Colby Jenkins, who is backed by Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), a Trump ally, in Utah’s 2nd District GOP primary. Jenkins defeated Maloy at the state nominating convention, 57%-43%, soon after Lee gave his surprise endorsement.
Maloy previously won the special election primary to replace Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT), her former boss, and is now running for her first real term.
The Utah congresswoman has the backing of Cox, the governor, who claimed “We don’t want more Washington in Utah, we need to send more of Utah to Washington” in a video announcing his support for Maloy. While Jenkins can count on national GOP support from Vivek Ramaswamy and Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL).
Should Maloy win, she'll face Democrat Nathaniel Woodward, Constitution Party candidate Cassie Easley, and unaffiliated candidate Tyler Murset in the general election.
Who will replace Rep. John Curtis?
Five Republicans are vying for the GOP primary in Utah's 3rd District to replace Curtis, who is running for the Senate seat left open by Romney.
Trump has not yet endorsed in the primary, despite state Sen. Mike Kennedy's MAGA disposition against the more centrist-leaning Case Lawrence. However, Kennedy won the GOP endorsement at the state's nominating convention. Stewart Peay, an attorney, is endorsed by Romney, his wife's uncle.
Support for funding Ukraine in its war against Russia has become a major contention in the GOP primary. Lawrence and Peay both support continued U.S. support for the beleaguered nation, while Kennedy and JR Bird, mayor of Roosevelt, said they don't believe it is in the best interest of the United States to continue funding Ukraine.
The winner of the GOP primary will run against Democratic nominee Glenn Wright but will likely win as the district is solidly Republican.
South Carolina runoff primary another test of Trump's power
Two Republicans, Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs, are facing off in South Carolina's primary runoff in the 3rd District to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC).
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Burns, a pastor and Army veteran, has the support of the former president and won 33% of the vote during the original primary. Biggs, a Mississippi Air National Guard officer, came in second during the primary at about 29% and has the support of Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC).
Whoever wins the runoff will go against Democratic nominee Byron Best but will likely win the safe Republican district.
Rachel Schilke and Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this story.
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