Virginians encouraged to plan for "extraordinary" hurricane season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season features an unprecedented combination of air and ocean conditions , and is likely to be extremely active , according to the U.S. government's official seasonal outlook.

The big picture: This is the most aggressive prediction NOAA has ever issued in its May forecast for the hurricane season, which started Saturday and runs through Nov. 30.

• And while Richmond may not be a coastal town, it's certainly seen its fair share of devastation due to the remnants of hurricanes .

Zoom in: The agency is forecasting an above normal season, with 17-25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

• That's up from an average of 14 storms strong enough to become named, per the Times-Dispatch .

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's largest and most expensive storms, and the odds of a U.S. landfall during an above-average season may be generally higher this year.

• "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways," said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference late last month.
• Historically, the most active period for strong storms is August and September.

Threat level: National Weather Service director Ken Graham, along with outside scientists contacted by Axios, made clear that every ingredient known to influence seasonal hurricane activity is pointing to a near-record one.

• The North Atlantic Ocean Basin is record warm overall, with deep, bathtub-like waters abundant especially in the Caribbean and the Main Development Region, where many of the fiercest hurricanes roam.
• The Caribbean's current average ocean temperature is higher than the 1991–2020 typical peak for an entire season, whereas the Main Development Region's ocean heat content is at Aug. 10 levels .

Yes, but: Officials are emphasizing preparedness over panic.

• "It's reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed," Graham said.
• "I'm asking Virginians to have a plan, sign up for emergency alerts and know your evacuation route," Gov. Youngkin said in a statement last week.
• See Virginia's evacuation zones and routes and recommended supplies for emergency kits.