COVID is on the rise again in Virginia

The annual summer COVID wave has begun in Virginia.

Why it matters: People congregating indoors to avoid extreme heat and upcoming July 4 travel are expected to drive up infections.

Between the lines: Experts say this summer's surge could stay mild, but it still poses a risk, especially to immunocompromised people and other medically vulnerable residents.

• There's also the unknown role that the new so-called FliRT variants , which are accounting for the majority of infections, might play these next few months.
• Plus, cases are likely undercounted since not everyone gets tested.

The big picture: Virginia is one of 39 states where cases were growing or likely growing as of June, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data .

• They weren't declining in any state at that time.
• Hospitalizations and deaths remain low but are steadily increasing.
• Wastewater surveillance , one of the more reliable ways of tracking COVID spread after testing dropped off, reveals that the South is seeing the second-sharpest increase in COVID levels.

Zoom in: Data from the Virginia Department of Health, last updated on Tuesday , shows the increase in infections starting earlier this year than last summer, which began ramping up in mid-July.

• Last June around this time, Virginia was averaging 162 new cases per day. The peak was in September at nearly 1,040 daily infections.
• This week's case average is at 315 per day, which Virginia didn't reach until the end of July last year. It's also close to double the daily case averages in late May.

Yes, but: Our averages right now are lower than they were this time in 2022, when VDH was recording more than 2,600 every day.