NEW POLLING: Trump Wins Virginia, Rust Belt in RCP Projected Electoral College Blowout

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images)

The latest RealClearPolitics “no tossup” Electoral College map placed Virginia in the corner of President Donald Trump , showing the country’s 45th president cruising to a second term in a blowout in November.

Following Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt last week, a successful Republican National Convention, and amid President Joe Biden’s mounting political troubles , the RCP map shows Trump currently winning the 2024 election big.

The map shows Trump taking Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia – a state Biden won in 2020 by 10 points and that no Republican has won since former President George W. Bush did so in 2004.

RCP/Screenshot

The map predicts that as of late July, Trump will win a decisive 325-213 Electoral College victory. In Virginia, the RCP average shows Trump leading in the commonwealth by 0.4 percent based on five polls commissioned since May.

Emerson and VCU have the former president leading Virginia by two and three percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, a New York Times/Sienna poll finds Biden leading in Virginia by three percentage points.

Polls conducted by Fox News and Roanoke College both found the two candidates in a dead heat.

It should be noted that only the Emerson poll was conducted after Trump survived the attempt on his lifr in Pennsylvania last week while the VCU and New York Times/Sienna polls were conducted during or shortly after Biden’s disastrous June debate performance against Trump.

The Hill reported of the Emerson survey:

The survey found that 45 percent of Virginia voters said they support Trump, while 43 percent back Biden and 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

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