Declining school enrollment observed

Decline attribute to ‘societal changes’: homeschooling, lower fertility, higher cost of living expenses

Voorheesville Central and South Colonie Central schools are bucking the downward trend of decreased enrollment that schools across the state are experiencing, according to a report recently released by the Capital District Regional Planning Commission.

Most school districts in the Capital District are experiencing a steady decline in enrollment. In the 2023-24 school year, 45.24% of area districts reported growth while 54.76% experienced a decline out of 42 local school districts.

“The trend reflects broader societal changes, with couples opting to have fewer children, often later in life, and the increased flexibility to homeschool due to more flexible work schedules,” the commission stated on its website. “These factors collectively impact overall school enrollment numbers across the state.”

This decline is partially attributed to smaller family sizes and lower fertility rates, especially in New York State, where the fertility rate in 2022 was 53.6. Additionally, economic factors such as the high cost of living and shifting demographic patterns, including the migration of families to other states, contribute to the decreasing student population.

From the 2022-23 school year to the 2023-24 school year, the five school districts with the greatest decrease in enrollment are Edinburg Common School District, Menands Union Free School District, Green Island Union Free School District, Wynantskill Union Free School District, and Stillwater Central School District, with Edinburg experiencing the largest decline at 14.29%.

School district declines are not just found in the Capital Region but are occurring throughout New York State. Statewide public school enrollment peaked around 1970, following the baby boom after World War II. Since then, enrollment has trended downward. Every county in New York State has fewer students enrolled in 2023-24 compared to 2018-19 (pre-pandemic).

Conversely, the five school districts that experienced the most significant growth from 2022-23 to 2023-24 are North Greenbush Common School District, Watervliet City School District, Niskayuna Central School District, Voorheesville Central School District, and South Colonie Central School District.

North Greenbush saw a notable 40.91% increase due to its extremely low enrollment, which ranges between 13-31 students over time. This small base number results in more pronounced percentage changes year over year. All other school district enrollment changes ranged from -14.29% to 3.15%.

The commission developed a Tableau Dashboard to track public school district enrollment from the 2012-2013 school year to the most recent year of published data. This dashboard also forecasts the next three years of school district enrollment with a 95% confidence envelope.

Enrollment changes reveal the largest decrease in Rensselaer County, which experienced a 9.25% drop from 2013-14 to 2023-24. Albany County saw the most modest change, with a 1.7% decrease over the same period.

The commission stated that population trends and the number of children born in each county influence the number of students enrolled. For example, the population in Albany and Saratoga counties is higher than in Schenectady and Rensselaer counties, leading to more students enrolled in Albany and Saratoga counties, according to the 2020 Decennial Census.

Important Facts

• The Capital District Regional Planning Commission developed a Tableau Dashboard to track public school district enrollment from 2012-2013 to the most recent year.
• Most school districts in the Capital District show a steady decline in enrollment over time.
• In the 2023-24 school year, 45.24% of the 42 school districts in the Capital District experienced growth, while 54.76% saw a decline.
• From 2022-23 to 2023-24, Edinburg Common School District had the largest decrease in enrollment at 14.29%.
• The North Greenbush Common School District saw the most significant growth at 40.91%, attributed to its extremely low enrollment base.
• Statewide, every county in New York has fewer students enrolled in 2023-24 compared to 2018-19, continuing a trend since enrollment peaked around 1970.
• Factors contributing to the decline include smaller family sizes, lower fertility rates, high cost of living, demographic shifts, and increased homeschooling flexibility.

Capital District Regional Planning Commission

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