Baylor Football Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total 2024

Baylor College Football Preview 2024

It has been a STRANGE four-year run under head coach Dave Aranda.

The star defensive coordinator took over the Baylor gig after Matt Rhule bolted following an 11-3 run with a Big 12 Championship appearance. It was a rebuilding season, and it showed going 2-7 - it was 2020; all things are forgiven.

And then the Bears bounced back with the best season in school history, at least in terms of wins.

It was the first 12-win campaign, there was a Big 12 championship, a Sugar Bowl victory, and all was right with the world. Two losing seasons later, and in a new world of the Big 12 that’s very, very winnable, it’s more than possible for Baylor to be fantastic again.

This school does a nice job of winning when no one is expecting much.

Baylor went 14 seasons from 1996 to 2009 without a winning record, but the on-field success under Art Briles, and later Rhule, showed what was possible.

Three times in the College Football Playoff era and with three difference coaches - 2014, 2019, and 2021 - Baylor would’ve made an expanded 12-team CFP with a 7 seed or higher.

This year’s team should be more explosive offensively, has enough decent parts to improve defensively, and there’s a chance the kicking game could be the best in the Big 12.

It almost certainly won’t be a College Football Playoff season, but after going 3-9, a winning run and a bowl game would do. That starts by getting a LOT more from the …

Baylor Football Preview 2024: Offense

- The offense should be a whole lot more fun. It averaged just 378 yards and 23 points per game, and now it has former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital coming in as the offensive coordinator. Cal didn’t crush last year with Spavital as the OC, but those Bears didn’t have the parts these Bears do.

And it starts at quarterback. Blake Shapen was good - throwing 13 touchdown passes and three picks in just over half a season - but now he’s gone to Mississippi State.

In comes Dequan Finn, a star all-around playmaker from Toledo who should be a perfect fit for the attack. Sawyer Robertson was a decent backup last year, and he’s more than capable of keeping the O going if needed.

- The receiving corps should be a plus in this attack. Leading target Monaray Baldwin is back in the slot after making 38 catches averaging over 16 yards per pop, and Ketron Jackson is a good deep threat who averaged over 17 yards per grab.

Also coming in is former Texas State No. 1 man Ashytn Hawkins, who made 141 grabs for over 1,700 yards and 11 scores over the last three seasons.

Second-leading receiver Drake Dabney is gone at tight end - he’s at TCU now - but the Bears are strong here with Kelsey Johnson and Ole Miss transfer Michael Trigg.

- The offensive line was the worst in the Big 12. Last in sacks and tackles for loss allowed, the running game averaged just 115 yards per outing, and it struggled to do much of anything right overall. The returning experience should matter, though.

Four decent starters are back from a young group that struggled, and coming in are Kurt Danneker (Ohio) for one guard spot and Omar Aigbedion (Montana State) to push for time in the interior rotation.

The backs are in place to do more. Dominic Richardson, Richard Reese, and Dawson Pendergrass combined for well over 1,100 yards and eight scores.

Baylor Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The offense was bad in 2023, and the defense was worse. Defensive coordinator Matt Powledge came on last year, and the Bears were dead last in scoring defense allowing 33 points per game, and 12th out 14 in total D.

The front three should be okay with veteran tackles Cooper Lanz and Treven Ma’ae returning, and Trey Wilson and JUCO transfer Tonga Lolohea have to hold up on the end.

- The linebacking corps should be a strength. Matt Jones led the team in tackles and did a little of everything in the middle, and Brooks Miller is back after working in the rotation on one side.

The Bears need more of a pass rush and more production from the hybrid Jack position. Garmon Randolph and Texas Tech transfer Steve Linton will give it a shot.

- The lack of sacks and absence of pressure killed the production in the secondary. The corners are experienced - Caden Jenkins should be the best of the bunch and Chateau Reed and Tevin Williams are back - and the safeties can all hit.

Devyn Bobby was second on the team with 76 tackles, Devin Lamar was third with 41 stops, and Kendrick Simpkins is coming in from WKU after making 50 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and ten tackles for loss.

Key To The Baylor Football Season

Get better play out of the offensive line.
The 2021 Baylor Bears were really good. They went 12-2, won the Big 12 Championship, and won the Sugar Bowl with a great ground game that rolled for well over 3,000 yards and averaged over five yards per carry. They allowed just 18 sacks in the 14-game season and allowed 85 tackles for loss.

The 2022 Bears ran for just 2,371 yards, but they allowed 22 sacks and 71 tackles for loss. Last year? They ran for a mere 1,378 yards, gave up 34 sacks, and 85 tackles for loss in 12 games.

The O line has to be far, far better, so …

Baylor Key Player

Alvin Ebosele, OT Soph.
The line has experience, and now it needs a main man to rise up and take over.

The 6-6, 315-pound Ebosele bulked up a little bit after his redshirt freshman year, and now he might rise up into a star - at least that’s the hope. He has the frame, the feet, and he started to show signs last year of being a potentially great left tackle.

Baylor Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: Dequan Finn, QB Sr.
Again, Finn is a special baller of a playmaker with the experience, skill, and style to step in and be an instant star for an offense that needs the boost.

Ultra-consistent, over the last three seasons he threw for close to 7,000 yards with 63 touchdowns and 23 picks, and he ran for 1,841 yards and 25 scores. He’ll be really, really good.

Top Transfer Out: Drake Dabney, TE Sr.
A mentioned before, Baylor is okay at tight end - and Finn will make everyone better - but Dabney was a good one. He was second on the team with 33 catches for 552 yards and a team-high five scores.

Baylor Key Game

Utah, Sept. 7
On a run of five straight losses to close out last year, Baylor should start out the season with a win over Tarleton State. However, it needs to flex a little muscle and show that this is a different year, this is a different team, and that it’s about to be far, far better.

The Utah game isn’t a Big 12 battle - it counts as a non-conference game - but it matters. If the Utes are expected to be the big thing in the Big 12 this year, and Baylor takes them down at home, then that’s the sign. It’ll be a good year for the Bears.

10 Best Baylor Football Players

1. Matt Jones, LB Sr.
2. Dequan Finn, QB Sr.
3. Caden Jenkins, CB Soph.
4. Monaray Baldwin, WR Sr.
5. Devyn Bobby, S Jr.
6. Cooper Lanz, DT Jr.
7. Dominic Richardson, RB Sr.
8. Citron Jackson, WR Sr.
9. Campbell Barrington, OG Sr.
10. Isaiah Hankins, PK Jr.

Baylor 2023 Fun Stats

- Touchdowns Scored: Opponents 52, Baylor 32

- 2nd Quarter Scoring: Opponents 141, Baylor 78

- Sacks: Opponents 34 for 250 yards, Baylor 18 for 110 yards

Baylor Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

The Bears should be able to bounce back large.

They might not be in the Big 12 Championship chase, but they’ll win their share of conference games, and the team should be far more explosive and productive.

The problem is on the non-conference side. Tarleton State will be a win, but Utah - it’s not a Big 12 game - is tough, and Air Force is a problem. Both of the tough games are at home, but they’re not layups.

There’s no Arizona, UCF, or Kansas State to face, but missing Arizona State and Cincinnati takes away two true 50/50 games.

It won’t be easy, and there will be some sweating in November, but the Bears will get bowling again.

Set The Baylor Win Total At … 5.5

Likely Wins: Tarleton State

50/50 Games: Air Force, BYU, at Colorado, at Houston, at Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU, at Texas Tech, Utah, at West Virginia

Likely Losses: There aren’t any automatic sure-thing projected losses

2024 Baylor Football Schedule

Aug 31 Tarleton State
Sept 7 Utah
Sept 14 Air Force
Sept 21 at Colorado
Sept 28 BYU
Oct 5 at Iowa State
Oct 12 OPEN DATE
Oct 19 at Texas Tech
Oct 26 Oklahoma State
Nov 2 TCU
Nov 9 OPEN DATE
Nov 16 at West Virginia
Nov 23 at Houston
Nov 30 Kansas

Missing: Arizona, Arizona State, UCF, Cincinnati, Kansas State