Operation Downfall: America's Forgotten Plan to Invade Japan

Conceived by the United States and its allies as World War II drew to a close, Operation Downfall was an daring plan for a massive amphibious assault on the Japanese archipelago. Envisioned as a huge undertaking, it held the grim potential to become one of history’s most deadly military campaigns.

Despite exhaustive preparation, Operation Downfall was never fully realized.

Developing Operation Downfall

Following D-Day , it became increasingly evident that the end of the fighting in Europe was imminent. However, the road to peace in the Pacific remained distant.

In early 1945, the Combined Chiefs of Staff convened at the Argonaut Conference to devise a definitive strategy to put an end to the war. The framework for what would evolve into Operation Downfall, the American-led invasion of Japan, was subsequently formulated.

The plan hinged on the assumption that hostilities in Europe would cease by July 1, 1945, and that the Okinawa invasion , yet to unfold, would conclude by mid-August. Operation Downfall was delineated into distinct phases, scheduled for November 1945 and the outset of '46, respectively.

The former phase would use troops already deployed in the Pacific Theater, while the latter would involve a combination of these forces and those redeployed following the cessation of the combat in Europe. The magnitude of the operation was staggering and it was poised to surpass even the monumental scale of the D-Day landings.

Operation Olympic

Operation Olympic, the initial phase of Downfall, was set to begin on November 1, 1945. American forces intended to launch their invasion of Kyūshū from their newly fortified base in Okinawa, which would later act as the staging area for troops involved in Operation Coronet.

The operation was to deploy a formidable collection of naval assets, including 400 destroyers and their escorts, 24 battleships, 42 aircraft carriers, 14 divisions, and two regimental combat teams. Additionally, a Commonwealth naval fleet, consisting of four battleships and 18 aircraft carriers would join them .

Logistical support for the amphibious and naval forces, as well as securing landing zones, would be managed by the Fifth, Seventh, and Thirteenth Air Forces. Strategic bombing missions would be conducted by the US Strategic Air Forces in the Pacific (USASTAF) and the British Tiger Force, with the famous " Dambusters ," No. 617 Squadron of the RAF, providing support.

Operation Coronet

Following the anticipated success of Operation Olympic, the Americans prepared for a later invasion aimed, in part, at applying military pressure on the Japanese capital by targeting Honshu.

This invasion, known as "Y-Day," was scheduled to start on March 1, 1946. The operation involved deploying 25 US divisions from the First and Eighth Armies, landing at Kujūkuri Beach and Hiratsuka, respectively. Following these initial landings, an additional 20 divisions were planned as reinforcements.

The strategy also called for at least five Commonwealth Corps divisions to join the Americans at this stage. These British, Canadian, and Australian units, initially not intended for deployment, were later incorporated after being offered to the Americans. Their role was to support the US forces in advancing north to encircle the capital before moving toward Nagano.

Operation Downfall's success would have come at a heavy price

While the Americans created a concrete plan for invading Japan, Operation Downfall would have come at a heavy price. As part of the preparation, they did calculations to see what the estimated casualties would be. While the numbers varied, the outcome was always staggeringly high.

One approach taken by Fleet Adm. William Leahy was that the casualties would be similar in number to those experienced on Okinawa - 35 percent . This meant the invasion of Kyūshū alone would have resulted in 268,000 casualties. This number was similarly echoed by Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Charles Willoughby.

Some estimates were far higher. One study conducted during deliberations showed that the invasion of Japan would cause up to four million American casualties and around 10 million Japanese deaths. It was these figures that played a role in the decision to drop the atomic bombs.

Operation Ketsugō

As the US planned its invasion, Japan was busy fortifying its defenses. Recognizing the increasing likelihood of an Allied assault, Japanese officials anticipated an attack post-1945 typhoon season. Remarkably, they accurately guessed the invasion locations.

Japan readied itself to counter 90 Allied divisions—20 more than what was actually expected. By this time, Japan understood that victory was out of reach. Instead, the strategy was to inflict such heavy costs on the invaders that the Allies might consider a truce.

Operation Ketsugō, Japan's resistance strategy, not only involved significant military forces but also mobilized civilians. An extensive training program was put in place for new troops, including frogmen, and 28 million men and women were prepared for the Volunteer Fighting Corps. Additionally, Japan intended to use kamikaze pilots to stop the Allied naval forces from reaching the shores.

Downfall of Operation Downfall

Ultimately, Japan's preparations were for nothing, as its troops couldn't withstand the attacks that brought World War II to a close. Before Operation Downfall could be put into action, the Americans dropped the atomic bomb Little Boy on Hiroshima, followed shortly after by Fat Man over Nagasaki. The Japanese surrender and the Soviet advance into Manchuria that followed solidified for the allies that Downfall was no longer needed.

Prior to this, the US really was actually preparing for the invasion. The country even went so far as to create almost 500,000 Purple Hearts in advance of the waves of injured Americans that would come out of Operation Downfall. Since they were never needed, the US military opted to hand out these medals in future wars; so many were made, in fact, that they were given out during the Korean War , in Vietnam , and during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan .

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As of 2020, it was believed there could be as many as 60,000 of these Purple Hearts yet to be given out.