Washington’s most powerful interests don’t know whether to cheer Harris — or dread her

Washington’s most powerful business interests have had five decades to learn what makes Joe Biden tick. They went through four years of Donald Trump in the White House.

Kamala Harris’ quick rise to potential Democratic nominee has them wondering what to expect — and worrying about whether her presidency would bring Biden 2.0, a tack to the left or something else entirely.

The tech industry, much of it based in her home state of California, could get an ally in the White House for the first time since Barack Obama. Oil and gas executives fear they’re about to have a bigger target on their back than they did under Biden. And Wall Street isn’t quite sure what to think, with watchdogs and industry donors alike singing her praises since Sunday’s bombshell.

The puzzlement among insiders and advocacy groups reveals just how little Washington has gotten to know Harris during her seven years in the capital.

Her time as U.S. senator and attorney general in California — coupled with positions she staked out during her brief presidential campaign in 2019 — suggest she would take a more progressive approach than Biden has. But industry leaders say Harris is still so largely unknown to them that her quick ascendancy has touched off waves of both hopeful speculation and hand-wringing.

“The feedback I’m getting, but certainly not confirmed by the VP, is that she will be far more open to business, [artificial intelligence], crypto and government as a service,” billionaire investor Mark Cuban — himself once rumored to be a possible presidential contender — said in an email to POLITICO. He added: “Changing the policies changes the message and lets everyone know she is in charge and open, literally, for business.”

The skeptics include Sen. Joe Manchin , the West Virginia Democrat-turned-independent who had flirted for several hours with the idea of challenging Harris . He suggested the vice president was both “too far to the left” and also some kind of a blank slate.

“At least you know where Donald Trump stands,” Manchin said in an interview Monday morning with MetroNews' “Talkline” in West Virginia.

As vice president, Harris has largely been able to avoid diving into the policy weeds, as her primary responsibility has been carrying out the Biden agenda. Now, with four weeks until the Democratic National Convention, she will be forced to craft a robust array of policies without the year or more that nominees typically have to draft, strategize, poll-test and audience-test their messages.

Here’s a look at how industry leaders — and groups that advocate against them — are thinking through what a Harris presidency would mean for them:

Silicon Valley

The tech industry’s biggest companies have endured years of criticism in Washington since Barack Obama left the White House — including major antitrust lawsuits by both the Trump and Biden administrations, Democratic complaints about the spread of hate speech and misinformation, Republican charges of anti-conservative censorship and calls from consumer groups for a crackdown on data privacy violations.

Some in Silicon Valley hope Harris would provide a chance for a reset.

On one hand, she took steps as California’s attorney general to crack down on data privacy violations — years before the state passed the country’s toughest law protecting consumer data — including by creating a Privacy Enforcement and Protection Unit in her department. The steps earned Harris praise from privacy advocacy organizations that have complained about Congress’ inaction on privacy, including organizations such as the Center for Democracy & Technology and the Electronic Privacy Information Center , which gave her an award for her work in 2015.

“Given her past positions, we expect that a Harris administration would push for guardrails to ensure the use of AI is rights-preserving and advances equity, be strong on data privacy issues, and hold Big Tech to account to advance consumer and civil rights,” EPIC Deputy Director Caitriona Fitzgerald said.

On the other hand, unlike Biden and Trump, Harris has not called for revoking the online industry’s 28-year-old liability shield — Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, which protects companies from being sued for user-posted content housed on their platforms. She did, however, vote for a package of bills signed by Trump that created an exception to Section 230 to hold platforms accountable for sex trafficking.

The 1996 law has been crucial to the rise of platforms such as Facebook, YouTube and X. Critics say it gives the industry carte blanche to profit from posts and videos that defame people, promote fraud or otherwise harm society.

Still, Harris has criticized social media companies, saying as a Democratic primary candidate in 2019 that she would hold them accountable for “the hate infiltrating their platforms, because they have a responsibility to help fight against this threat to our democracy.”

As California AG, though, Harris built a reputation for working with tech companies to fight the worst of online behavior. In 2015, she gathered executives from top platforms to persuade them to stop nonconsensual intimate images, or “revenge porn,” from being shared on their sites. Though she achieved some results, critics said she relied too much on persuasion rather than litigation.

One tech CEO said on Monday that Harris has an opportunity to win new support — and perhaps donations — from West Coast tech executives and venture capitalists who liked Obama’s emphasis on innovation but have largely soured on Biden for what they call his failure to push for high-skilled immigration reform or to lay out clear rules for AI, cryptocurrency and other emerging technologies.

“If by the end of the week, she had a tech policy framework out there — a 10-point plan for pro-business, pro-tech, pro-entrepreneurship — and it was credible ... I think she could very quickly rally a significant portion of the ecosystem,” said Aaron Levie, the Silicon Valley-based CEO of the cloud computing company Box. If Harris does unveil such a plan, Levie said he’s heard from “a dozen-plus tech CEOs” who would be “absolutely willing to support her.”

But Silicon Valley’s critics would see that as yet another instance of the tech giants’ long track record of getting its way in Washington — often with a big assist from politicians based in California . Harris’ own past campaigns have included top donors from tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft and Google’s parent Alphabet.

— Alfred Ng , Mallory Culhane and Brendan Bordelon

Oil and gas

Both environmental advocates and fossil fuel supporters expect Harris to push to curb the use of fossil fuels and the spread of oil and gas infrastructure — an arena where both sides have expressed dissatisfaction with Biden.

"I think we'll … see some pretty high-profile decisions if Kamala does win in November on fossil fuels pretty early,” said Collin Rees, the U.S. program manager at the green activist group Oil Change International.

Harris said during her 2019 primary campaign that she favored a ban on fracking, the oil and gas drilling technique that has helped catapult the U.S. into the world’s biggest producer of those energy sources. She said she would also ban new drilling on federal land — mirroring a promise that Biden also made but hasn’t delivered on. Either of those promises would prove a major harm to the oil industry’s bottom line.

“I’d expect a more anti-fossil-fuel policy and agenda than what we’ve seen so far,” said one oil industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss the unsettled politics. But the people in the industry also hope Harris would moderate her stances in the general election.

“I don’t think she could go too far left if she hopes to win Pennsylvania,” which is both a fracking hotbed and a crucial swing state, the person added.

Despite signing the biggest climate law in U.S. history and steering hundreds of billions of dollars into the development of clean energy, Biden has greenlit some prominent fossil fuel projects in states such as Alaska and West Virginia. One of his biggest recent rebukes to the industry has been a pause on new approvals for natural gas exports — expected to end early next year — while regulators study their effects on the climate and U.S. economy.

“We certainly hope, and in keeping with her platform, that she would continue with the [gas export] policy review, regardless of what certain courts in Louisiana have to say,” Rees said of Harris.

— Zack Colman , Alex Guillén and Ben Lefebvre

Wall Street and taxes

Finance industry watchdogs and progressives are bullish that Harris will pick up the mantle for Biden administration policies designed to boost wages, enhance competition and contain rental costs. That would be in line with her track record as California attorney general, when Harris sued big banks and mortgage lenders for misconduct in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, securing an $18 billion relief settlement.

But corporate Democrats and financiers on Wall Street are optimistic she'd govern as a centrist, said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor of management at the Yale School of Management who regularly consults with top U.S. CEOs. In contrast to Trump, she’s not an isolationist on foreign policy — something many in the corporate world care deeply about — and they believe she is less likely to pursue trade policies that are as protectionist as his proposals.

"The business community, especially the tech/VC community are exhilarated over this choice," Sonnenfeld told POLITICO.

As a senator, Harris introduced legislation to impose transactions taxes on financial instruments such as stocks, bonds and derivatives. That’s an inherently anti-Wall Street proposal that critics such as Grover Norquist, president of the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform, contend would be “devastating to the American economy.”

“It would make nobody want to bank in New York,” Norquist said. “It would make everybody in Hong Kong and London rich.”

Harris has also suggested a full repeal of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and hiking the corporate tax rate. In contrast, Trump has vowed to extend those cuts, which tax watchdogs estimate would cost $4.6 trillion.

As a senator, Harris also spearheaded the Rent Relief Act , which would have given tax credits to low-income households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent. The idea has been championed by groups like the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

“We could expect a Harris presidency to be ambitious with the tax code to solve social and economic problems,” said Steve Rosenthal of the liberal-leaning Tax Policy Center.

— Sam Sutton and Benjamin Guggenheim

College affordability

Student debt-relief advocates hope they will benefit from Harris’ yearslong focus on college affordability, as well as her past efforts to crack down on for-profit colleges that have defrauded students.

Harris has served as a leading voice in the Biden administration on forgiving student debt . As senator, she was a vocal supporter of efforts to make college tuition-free — although her debt relief plan during her 2019 bid for president was far less ambitious.

“When we talk about student loan debt, she understands what it's like that your worst sin was to be born into a family that couldn't afford to write a check to send you off to college, and yet you tried to get an education,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Monday on MSNBC. She recalled making a 2018 video with the then-senator calling on the Education Department to address student debt.

Harris was also the face of the Biden administration’s decision in 2022 to wipe out all debt owed by hundreds of thousands of students who attended Corinthian Colleges, a chain of for-profit schools that Harris prosecuted as California attorney general.

“The vice president understands borrowers' struggles and has fought tirelessly to address the student debt crisis head on,” said Mike Pierce, executive director of the Student Borrower Protection Center.

Advocates for for-profit schools, who say she demonized them when she was attorney general, are less enthused.

“We are concerned at the way she has used these actions as a political issue, rather than taking a more fair and comprehensive look at the vital role for-profit career colleges play in America,” said Career Education Colleges and Universities President Jason Altmire, who represents for-profit colleges. “We are hopeful that her position has evolved and she will take an interest in learning more about how for-profit schools are the key to solving the skills gap and workforce shortages that plague many professions across America.”

Harris, in her book “The Truths We Hold,” called the institutions “corporate predators who have taken advantage of — and often ruined — vulnerable people.”

— Bianca Quilantan

Workers

Biden has proudly embraced his “Union Joe” moniker, even walking a United Auto Workers picket line last year. Harris similarly has deep ties to powerful labor organizations such as the Service Employees International Union and supported the PRO Act — legislation that would be the most substantial overhaul of the National Labor Relations Act since the late 1940s.

As a senator she also pushed for legislation that would grant additional protections to groups such as domestic workers and farm laborers.

“She’s always been in the corner of working people,” said SEIU President April Verrett, whose relationship with Harris dates back to their overlapping time in California politics.

On the flip side, business groups that have opposed many of the Biden administration’s policies will continue to do so — and perhaps will amp up their efforts.

Biden had long positioned himself toward the center of the Democratic mainstream, whereas Harris has styled herself more with the progressive wing of the party, which has a much more antagonistic relationship with corporate America. Some business advocates had enough of both, however.

“President Biden is gone from the ballot, but his bad policies will remain, embodied by Kamala Harris or whoever succeeds him,” Job Creators Network CEO Alfredo Ortiz said. “Americans must remember the problem is bad Democrat policies, not the person on the presidential ballot.”

— Nick Niedzwiadek

Big Pharma and health care

Medicare’s ability to negotiate drug prices as part of the Inflation Reduction Act could be another focus for a Harris presidency — and a concern for much of the pharmaceutical industry.

“It’s likely something she can tout as an achievement of both hers and Biden’s,” said Lindsay Bealor Greenleaf, head of state and federal policy at the consulting firm ADVI Health, while adding that her policies for implementing drug-related provisions in the IRA could “be more aggressive than the current administration.”

One area the industry worries about involves so-called march-in rights, which allow the federal government to seize the patents of some high-cost drugs and create more competition that could lower prices. The Biden administration has yet to wield that power, though it has said it would have the right to.

Another concern for the health industry writ large: As California attorney general, Harris took on health giants accused of anti-competitive practices.

“She has been willing to take on the drug companies, the hospitals, on the issue of anti-competitive pricing, on those drivers of high health costs,” said Anthony Wright, who was the executive director of Health Access California’s health care consumer advocacy coalition and is Families USA’s incoming executive director. “Given her background, she might lean into them more.”

Even so, hospital groups don’t see a need to significantly shift strategies if she succeeds Biden. Chip Kahn, president and CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals, said it’s hard to imagine a Harris administration doing more on anti-competitive practices than Biden has.

“Going into the future,” he said, “I assume you’re going to be dealing mostly with the current agenda.”

But other provider groups hope her interest in taking on anti-competitive practices in health care could bleed into other hot health policies. Those could include breaking up insurance companies or reworking the implementation of the No Surprises Act , which Congress passed in 2020 to keep patients from receiving surprise bills when they are treated by out-of-network providers.

“These solutions would provide Harris ways to lower prices for patients,” said Christopher Sheeron, president of Action for Health.

— Daniel Payne, Chelsea Cirruzzo and David Lim

Phone and internet providers

Biden’s most specific and controversial legacy on telecom policy could be net neutrality — the notion that broadband providers should not be allowed to pick favorites in blocking or throttling internet content to consumers. And Harris was a more vocal supporter of that longtime progressive priority than Biden was before the duo entered the White House.

The Federal Communications Commission has just adopted net neutrality rules that the telecom industry is suing to block.

Harris praised the FCC in November for a separate set of new rules barring discrimination in how companies build out their broadband services based on factors such as race and income. The industry is also suing over that policy.

Then again, some of her former staff now work at top telecom companies — including her former Senate legislative director Clint Odom, the vice president for strategic alliances and external affairs at T-Mobile.

“Harris will represent continuity on telecom policies,” New Street Research analyst Blair Levin wrote in a note to investors on Monday. “We don’t see a material likelihood of a material change from Biden to Harris on telecom policies.”

Matt Wood, general counsel of the liberal-leaning consumer advocacy group Free Press, said in an interview that he also expects Harris to broadly continue the policies espoused under Biden — including national investments to expand broadband, which Harris took the lead on for Biden in 2021.

The administration’s billions of dollars in broadband expansion investments are “obviously something that this White House has been rightly proud of,” Wood told POLITICO. “Shovels in the ground are always a good tangible thing to point to when politicians want to talk about accomplishments.”

— John Hendel

Artificial intelligence

On AI, an emerging issue with many angles — national security, competition with China, existential risk for humanity, and basic fairness — Harris has leaned toward that last concern, embracing the views of civil-rights advocates who say the technology creates risks of algorithmic bias.

Harris was “key” in developing a Biden executive order aimed at ensuring that federal agencies’ use of AI “is nondiscriminatory, safe, and effective,” said Cody Venzke, senior policy counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union. “She has underscored that AI policy cannot focus on ‘existential’ risks without addressing the harms it is causing for people every day.”

In the days leading up to the executive order’s release in October, Harris represented the White House in meetings with civil rights, labor and consumer protection groups about immediate, public-facing risks of automated systems. She continued to focus on AI’s near-term risks during the U.K. Safety Summit in November, where then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had wanted to discuss more world-ending scenarios involving AI.

— Mohar Chatterjee and Alfred Ng

Eleanor Mueller and Ry Rivard contributed to this report.