Another Squad primary, Trump’s endorsement test and more to watch on Tuesday

An aggressive campaign from pro-Israel groups helped take down a member of the progressive “Squad” earlier this cycle. Those forces are hoping to oust another member on Tuesday.

Democratic Rep. Cori Bush faces a tough primary challenge in Missouri’s 1st District from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who’s backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s political arm. Pro-Israel groups have vowed to spend heavily in elections this year to block candidates they deem insufficiently supportive of Israel, and members of the Squad have been targeted, in part, for their support for Palestinians amid the war in the Middle East.

More than $10 million has poured in against Bush, around $9 million of which came from AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, according to ad tracker AdImpact. But it’s not just the heavy spending that could deliver Bush a loss. Like Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), the first Squad member to lose a primary earlier this year, Bush has serious political weaknesses — like being under federal investigation for campaign spending — that makes her far more vulnerable than your average member.

It’s a busy primary day in three other states beyond Missouri, with races up and down the ballot in Kansas, Michigan and Washington, including open races to succeed outgoing governors and retiring members of Congress, along with battleground matchups that will be set.

Here’s what to watch on Tuesday:

— Kansas: Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner’s announcement that he wasn’t running for another term in the 2nd District — citing a desire to be with his children and the “dysfunction” on the Hill — came as a surprise, given he’s one of the youngest members of Congress.

His departure has led to a crowded field of Republicans jockeying to succeed him. Frontrunners include former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt; former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs; and Shawn Tiffany, a rancher. Schmidt unsuccessfully ran for governor in the midterms, but he has a perceived leg up, thanks to an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

Former Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda is also looking to make a comeback, though she’ll face an uphill climb in this deep-red seat.

Kansas also features a battleground House race in the 3rd District, a seat that President Joe Biden won by around 5 points in 2020. Prasanth Reddy, a physician with the backing of Speaker Mike Johnson, is the favorite for the GOP nod against Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, and 9 p.m. Eastern in the small part in the Mountain Time Zone.

— Michigan: A high-stakes open Senate race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow tops Tuesday’s primaries in this battleground state. Both parties have their presumed candidates — Rep. Elissa Slotkin for Democrats, and former Rep. Mike Rogers for Republicans — though they have contested primaries.

Hill Harper, an actor and activist, is looking to complicate Slotkin’s path to victory, but Slotkin has a hefty fundraising advantage and the backing of establishment Democrats. Rogers, meanwhile, has the support of Republicans’ Senate campaign arm. He’ll be fending off a challenge from former Rep. Justin Amash (who previously left the GOP to become a Libertarian) and physician Sherry O’Donnell. Businessperson Sandy Pensler ended his bid and endorsed Rogers last month, but will still appear on the ballot.

A handful of battleground House primaries are also on the docket. One of the most competitive down-ballot contests here is in the 8th District, a seat the Biden narrowly won in 2020 and will be open as Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee calls it quits. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet has the backing of Kildee and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but faces a challenge from former Flint Mayor Matt Collier and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh. Republican Paul Junge, who lost in the general election for this seat in the midterms, has the stiffest challenge from former chemical company executive Mary Draves. Trump threw his backing behind Junge.

Other battleground races in the Great Lakes State will be taking place in the 3rd, 7th and 10th districts. In the 3rd, a seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten that Biden won by around 9 points in 2020, attorney Paul Hudson and businessperson Michael Markey are competing for the GOP nod. There’s little intrigue in the 7th, currently held by Slotkin: Former Democratic state Sen. Curtis Hertel and 2022 Republican nominee Tom Barrett don’t have opponents in their respective primaries. And in the 10th, a seat that Trump won by around 1 point in 2020, Republican Rep. John James could face a rematch from unsuccessful 2022 candidate Carl Marlinga, who has to get through a busy Democratic primary first.

Earlier this cycle, it seemed that Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, an Indian-American lawmaker representing a predominantly Black seat in the Detroit-based 13th District, could be in trouble during his primary. But he faces an easier path to reelection after his most serious threat failed to submit enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. The incumbent now has two lesser-known challengers, both of whom are Black.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, and 9 p.m. Eastern in the rest.

— Missouri: Despite the barrage of spending against Bush, she’s not without reinforcements. Progressive group Justice Democrats is her biggest supporter, pouring in more than $2 million on advertising.

And not all the drama in the state is happening in the Democratic primary between Bush and Bell.

A contentious Republican primary is underway to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Mike Parson. Parson-backed Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel have emerged as the leading candidates, and have leaned into red-meat issues in the lead-up to the election, including immigration and China.

Trump pulled a familiar gambit in this race: He endorsed all three of them, all but certainly guaranteeing him a win. Democratic state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessperson Mike Hamra are the frontrunners for the Democratic primary, though the winner will face an uphill climb in this red state.

Democrats are also hoping that a familiar name can help them in a tough battle against Republican Sen. Josh Hawley. Democrat Lucas Kunce, who unsuccessfully ran in a Senate primary in the midterms, is the favorite for his party’s nomination this time around.

There’s also a crowded GOP primary in the 3rd District, an open, deep-red seat currently held by retiring Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. Heavy spending has poured in — around $5 million — against Trump-endorsed Bob Onder, a former state senator. That includes more than $1 million each from Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action Inc., two groups that have spent in safe GOP primaries nationally this cycle in an attempt to block potential rabble-rousers from Congress. National Interest Action, a recently formed group that also played in an Arizona primary, also has dropped more than $1 million on advertising.

But Onder has been boosted by more than $2 million from the Club for Growth and affiliated groups. Kurt Schaefer, also a former state legislator, is in the running as well, and has been supported by more than $1 million in spending from Missouri Conservatives for Congress, a group bankrolled by Luetkemeyer , who endorsed him.

Polls close at 8 p.m Eastern.

— Washington: Along with Missouri, Washington also has an open gubernatorial seat. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, along with Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, are all backing state Attorney General Bob Ferguson. Former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is also a favorite to secure a spot out of the all party, top-two primary — though Semi Bird, a former local school board member, has the backing of the state GOP.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, one of the most vulnerable House Democrats, faces off against two Republicans in the 3rd District, which Trump carried by around 4 points. Republican Joe Kent, who lost by less than 1 point in 2022, is back for a second attempt; and Leslie Lewallen, a local city councilmember, is trying to convince the district she has a better chance of beating Gluesenkamp Perez in November. Lewallen is campaigning as a more moderate Republican option, but has trailed both other candidates in fundraising.

Gluesenkamp Perez, meanwhile, continues to push her working-class, party renegade image, while Kent aims to paint her as too progressive for the district. The two have spent the runup to Election Day embroiled in a battle on X , and at their campaign rallies, over Gluesenkamp Perez’s vote against a 2023 House bill that would have banned transgender athletes.

In Washington’s 8th District, another battleground, just one Republican, Carmen Goers, is running to take on Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier. But Goers doesn’t have strong fundraising, putting her at a disadvantage for the general election.

Washington’s safe seats also have seen a flurry of campaigning ahead of the primary. One of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 is fighting for his political life in the safe red 4th District. GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse faces off against not one but two Trump-endorsed candidates: former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and Tiffany Smiley, a nurse who lost her Senate run in 2022.

Newhouse outraised and outspent the field, but political experts and strategists say this is the most vulnerable he’s ever been. Some voters in his district last week who spoke to POLITICO criticized Newhouse for not showing up to local events and not taking a strong enough stance on issues like border security.

The state's unique all-party primary adds an additional layer to uncertainty. Democrats have made up roughly a third of the electorate in recent elections, so two Republicans could theoretically advance to a general election. That could be Newhouse versus another, Trump-endorsed Republican — or Newhouse could get locked out entirely.

Similar dynamics are at play in the 6th District, a deep-blue seat held by retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer. Democrats Hilary Franz, the state’s public lands commissioner, and state Sen. Emily Randall are the leading contenders. Kilmer endorsed Franz, while Randall has the backing of Murray, Gluesenkamp Perez and Rep. Marilyn Strickland. It’s possible both make it to the general election, though it’s unlikely given a split Democratic vote.

And in the 5th District, a crowded Republican field is vying to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, including former state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, who has raised and spent the most out of the contenders.

Polls close at 11 p.m. ET.

Natalie Fertig contributed to this report.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro .