Ukraine’s audacious seizure of Russian territory shocks Moscow, surprises Washington

UKRAINE’S SURPRISE SNEAK ATTACK: In what appears to be the largest cross-border incursion into Russian territory since the war began in February 2022, 1,000 Ukrainian troops, maybe more, have taken over a small corner of Russia’s western Kursk region, capturing in two days more ground than Russia has taken in Ukraine in two months.

“Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) into Russia's Kursk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its nightly war update . “Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers (28 square miles) of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements.”

Ukraine maintained tight secrecy over the operation, keeping allies in the dark, and is still providing no details of the scope, scale, and ultimate objective of the offensive, which has Ukrainian forces advancing on the city of Sudzha. Social media posts showed residents fleeing , Russian border guards surrendering , and Ukrainian forces taking control of a gas metering station through which gas exports to the European Union flow.“

"It is important to continue destroying our enemy — as precisely as our warriors can, and as resiliently as it contributes to the overall defense of our country, and as effectively as it produces results,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address, without making any direct reference to the foray into Russia. “The more pressure is exerted on Russia, on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. Just peace through just force.”

PUTIN: ‘A MAJOR PROVOCATION’: Moscow was caught off guard by the incursion, and in a breathtaking display of chutzpah, President Vladimir Putin complained the incursion was an affront to Russia’s sovereignty and showed a disregard for civilian lives.

“The Kyiv regime attempted another major provocation, launching an indiscriminate attack with a variety of weapons, including missiles, against civilian facilities, residential buildings, and ambulance vehicles,” Putin said at a meeting of government ministers .

At a separate meeting, Russian Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov reported that Ukrainian forces numbered “up to 1,000 people,” and claimed that, “The joint actions by the state border covering units together with border guards and reinforcement units, air strikes, missile forces, and artillery fire stopped the enemy’s advance.”

“The enemy’s losses amounted to 315 people, including at least 100 killed and 215 injured, with 54 armored vehicles destroyed, including seven tanks,” he told Putin. “We will complete the operation by defeating the enemy and reaching the state border.”

"The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent," the ISW said in its latest assessment . "The Kremlin risks, however, discrediting itself among certain communities by seemingly dismissing the significance of the attack by framing it only as a 'provocation.'"

RUSSIA ACCUSES UKRAINE OF RARE CROSS-BORDER ATTACK

WHITE HOUSE: WE DON’T KNOW, ASK UKRAINE: White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby clearly had no idea what the Ukrainians were up to and, in a conference call , suggested reporters direct their questions to Kyiv.

"I would refer you to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to speak to what they're doing. We're going to stay focused on making sure they have what they need to defend themselves, of course," Kirby said. "I would add that we are, as you would expect we would be, reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding here."

One question is whether Ukraine is using U.S.-supplied weapons to support its cross-border operation. “Nothing has changed about our policy with respect to enabling or encouraging strikes or attacks inside Russia, outside the bounds of course of what we have permitted them to do with U.S.-supplied weapons in the past, which is to target imminent threats just across the border.”

But wait, there’s more…

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Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie . Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre .

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UKRAINE’S RUSSIAN LAND GRAB, TO WHAT END? When reports first began indicating that Ukraine was sending troops across the border into Russia, it wasn’t clear if it was a quick in-and-out raid or something aimed at seizing and holding territory. Military analysts were baffled by the move, which they said was pulling troops away from the much-needed undermanned defense of the eastern front, while opening up a new front line they would have to defend.

"The question is, why? Why did Ukraine do this? Beyond aggravating Russian President Vladimir Putin, what purpose does this action serve?" writes my Washington Examiner colleague Tom Rogan . "If Ukraine attempts to hold the territory it has taken, it will suffer heavy casualties with very little prospect of success. This is no small concern in that Ukrainian forces are already under significant pressure in multiple areas of southern and southeastern Ukraine. Russia's far greater manpower reserves mean that Ukraine must choose very carefully where and how it conducts counteroffensives."

“Still, I can see a number of rationales,” Rogan writes, listing “undermining Russian confidence in Putin’s authority,” forcing Russia to “divert forces to protect its borders,” and boosting Ukrainian morale. “In a sense, then, this offensive may serve as a Ukrainian version of the U.S. Doolittle bombing raid against Japan in April 1942. While limited in military effects, that raid rallied the U.S. population following the attack on Pearl Harbor and energized America’s mobilization toward victory.”

READ MORE OF ROGAN’S ANALYSIS: WHAT’S BEHIND UKRAINE’S INCURSION INTO RUSSIA?

ANOTHER VIEW: ‘BRILLIANT COUNTERMOVE’ OR ‘STRATEGIC ERROR’: “The use of highly capable Ukrainian combat forces in Kursk is either a brilliant countermove to shift the initiative in the war, or a strategic error which compounds the challenges in Ukraine’s eastern Ukraine defensive operations,” wrote retired Australian Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan on his Stubstack blog.

“Time will tell whether using these Ukrainian brigades to attack into Russia, rather than defending eastern Ukraine, has been the most strategically effective use of their forces at a time when Ukrainian defenders in the east are being pushed back on several axes,” he wrote. “There is no way yet to make this assessment. … Not only are we unsure about just how far deep the Ukrainians have penetrated, but we are also unsure of the strategic and political objectives of this operation.”

“Initially viewed as another raid into Russia, similar to the previous Ukrainian operations in May 2023 and March 2024, it has become clear that this is something slightly different, particularly in its use of conventional Ukrainian ground forces,” Ryan said. “The Ukrainians have attacked with a highly mobile, mechanized force. This is different to the Russian dismounted attacks into Kharkiv in recent months. A high level of mobility is essential to creating or exploiting gaps in enemy defenses, and rapidly exploiting such gaps. Speed and shock action are vital. But mechanized operations create a larger logistic liability than dismounted action, and armored vehicles can be harder to hide in open warfare.”

“The Ukrainians appear to have deployed a significant amount of air defense capability. At least one Russian fighter aircraft and two helicopters have been claimed to have been shot down by the Ukrainians,” he wrote.

What are the objectives? Like Rogan, Ryan suggested three: “seeking to draw Russian forces away from its attacks on the Niu-York and its advances on Toretsk and Pokrovsk,” “force the Russians to reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line,” and “the Kursk nuclear power station may be one objective, but that is speculative and still lies 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the border with Ukraine, well beyond where Ukraine is currently thought to be operating.”

UKRAINE SEES TIM WALZ AS ‘RELIABLE FRIEND’ AGAINST RUSSIA

VANCE, GOP LAWMAKERS, ACCUSE WALZ OF SHIRKING WAR DEPLOYMENT: Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) has been using his six-month tour in Iraq as a communications specialist to impune the 24-year military career of Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).

"When the United States Marine Corps, when the United States of America asked me to go to Iraq to serve my country, I did it. I did it — what — they asked me to do it, and I did it honorably, and I'm very proud of that service," Vance said during a campaign stop in Michigan yesterday. "When Tim Walz was asked by his country to go to Iraq, you know what he did? He dropped out of the Army and allowed his unit to go without him, a fact that he's been criticized for aggressively by a lot of the people that he served with. I think it's shameful to prepare your unit to go to Iraq, to make a promise that you're going to follow through, and then to drop out right before you actually have to go. I also think it's dishonest."

Among Walz's critics are two congressional veterans: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), who served two combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), the only former Green Beret in Congress.

"J.D. Vance is right," Cotton posted on X . "Tim Walz's unit got orders to Iraq. He could've gone with them but didn't. He let his troops go to war without him instead."

“I’ve seen the reports on Tim Walz’s military record, and he has some explaining to do,” Waltz said in a video posted to X.

Walz has yet to respond to the criticism, but a report in the Washington Post suggested he did know that his National Guard unit would be deploying to Iraq when he decided to file his retirement papers to pursue a career in politics.

“It was a very long conversation behind closed doors,” a colleague, Al Bonnifield , told the paper. “He was trying to decide where he could do better for soldiers, for veterans, for the country. He weighed that for a long time.”At least three former Guard colleagues have publicly voiced bitterness at Walz's decision, the Washington Post reported, quoting Doug Julin , a retired National Guard soldier who worked with Walz. "Nobody wants to go to war. I didn't want to go, but I went," Julin said in an interview. "The big frustration was that he let his troops down."

EXPLAINING WALZ'S MILITARY RECORD

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner : Russia accuses Ukraine of rare cross-border attack

Washington Examiner : What’s behind Ukraine’s incursion into Russia?

Washington Examiner : Ukraine sees Tim Walz as ‘reliable friend’ against Russia

Washington Examiner : Explaining Walz' military record

Washington Examiner : Los Angeles resident passed over in US-Russia prisoner swap pleads guilty to treason

Washington Examiner : Iran’s waiting game inflicts ‘psychological terror’ on Israel

Washington Examiner : Australian navy’s ‘main job’ is countering China, defense chief says

Washington Examiner : Biden 'not confident' in peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses

Washington Examiner : White House pressed about Biden’s disappearing act

Washington Examiner : Hunter Biden hired by Romanian oligarch to ‘influence US government,’ special counsel claims

Washington Examiner : Los Angeles resident passed over in US-Russia prisoner swap pleads guilty to treason

Washington Examiner : Jan. 6 defendant rearrested for alleged threats to Justice Barrett and Garland

Washington Examiner : China to impose restrictions on exportation of fentanyl ingredients

Washington Examiner : NASA contemplates sending SpaceX to rescue Starliner astronauts after Boeing failures

Washington Examiner : Cato refutes Trump claim that immigrants take ‘black jobs’

Washington Examiner : Terrorist plot targeting Taylor Swift concert snuffed out by police in Austria

CNN : Hezbollah Poised to Strike Israel Independent of Iran, Sources Say

Politico : Cost Rising for US as It Fights Off Houthi Drones

Washington Post : Tim Walz’s military record, National Guard departure get new scrutiny

Military.com : Pilots, Family Members Say Crew Is Being Unfairly Blamed for November’s Deadly Air Force Osprey Crash

The War Zone : New XQ-58 Valkyrie Variant with Built-In Landing Gear to Fly Soon

DefenseScoop : DOD Puzzling Out Capability Focus Area for Replicator 2.0

Breaking Defense : Army Space and Missile Command Bolstering ‘Offensive,’ Nonkinetic Space Control Chops

Air & Space Forces Magazine : Space Order of Battle: Beyond Domain Awareness

Air & Space Forces Magazine : How AI and Software Are Driving Two of the Air Force’s Biggest Programs

Defense News : Air Force Research Lab Eyes Space Data Transport Demo in 2026

Breaking Defense : The ‘Bill Belichick’ of Pentagon Contracts Is Negotiating a Deal on AMRAAM Missiles

Defense One : Air Force-Facilitated Arms Export Sales Reach All-Time High

Air & Space Forces Magazine : New Air Force Warrant Officer Selectees Skew Older, Higher-Ranked

Air & Space Forces Magazine : Two B-1 Bombers Fly to and from Ellsworth to Train with Japanese Fighters

THE CALENDAR:

THURSDAY | AUGUST 8

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition," with David Honey , deputy undersecretary of defense for research and engineering;  Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli , commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Undersecretary of the Army Gabe Camarillo ; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work deliver remarks on "Service Perspectives" https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Assad's Return: Regional Changes, and Future Outlook," with Sawsan Abou Zainedin , CEO of Madaniya; Maria Fantappie, head of the IAI Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Program; Abdullah Baabood , CEIP nonresident senior scholar; Armenak Tokmajyan , CEIP nonresident scholar; and Sinan Ulgen , CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/08/assads-return

11 a.m. New London, Connecticut — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee field hearing on "Coast Guard Whistleblowers: Sexual Assault and Harassment,” with testimony from Julian Bell , chief warrant officer 4, U.S. Coast Guard; Crystal Van Den Heuvel , yeoman petty officer first class, U.S. Coast Guard; Tina Owen , retired lieutenant commander in the U.S. Coast Guard; Shawna Christine Ward, retired chief warrant officer 4, U.S. Coast Guard; and Meghan Lori Klement , former seaman, U.S. Coast Guard https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/hearings/coast-guard-whistleblowers-sexual-assault-and-harassment/

1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: "Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted U.S.-PRC (People's Republic of China) Conflict," with Austin Long , deputy director for strategic stability for the Joint Staff; Justin Anderson , senior policy fellow at the National Defense University's Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Andrew Metrick , fellow at the CNAS Defense Program; and Stacie Pettyjohn , senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-over-the-brink

3:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Wilson Center Indo-Pacific Program and Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program virtual discussion: "One Year Later: The Path Forward for US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations," with Dayna Barnes , associate professor at the National Defense University; Sung-Yoon Lee , fellow and professor of Korean studies and assistant professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School; Hayoun Ryou-Ellison , assistant professor of the National Defense University; and Kayla Irta , senior associate at the Hyundai-Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/one-year-later-path-forward

FRIDAY | AUGUST 9

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition," with Heidi Shyu , undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Maryna Bezrukova , director, Defense Procurement Agency; and Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/