Three battleground states shift within reach for Harris after campaign reset

A nonpartisan election handicapper updated ratings for three states in the 2024 presidential election cycle , shifting three battleground states within striking distance for Democrats after Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee for president.

The Cook Political Report is moving Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada into the “toss-up” category from “lean Republican.”

Arizona has 11 electoral votes, Georgia has 16, and Nevada has six. The election projector now shows Republicans with 235 electoral votes from states that are rated as leaning or solid Republican, while Democrats have 226 electoral votes from states that are likely or solid for Democratic. There are 77 votes in play from “toss-up” states.

In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group said battleground-state polls show Harris cutting into former President Donald Trump’s lead by anywhere from 2 to 5 points, which now reflect that she is leading by less than 1 point. In comparison, three weeks ago, similar polls found that “Trump was leading Biden in the Cook Political Report national vote tracker by about 2.5%.”

“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels,” Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report wrote. “Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities.”

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However, Walter acknowledged that Trump is polling stronger than he was at the same point in 2020, when “he was trailing the national polling average by just over six points and behind in key swing states by similar margins.” Biden won all three of these states in 2020, but the margins were narrow.

“Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a toss-up,” Walter added.