Democrats fall into 1 million voter hole in former swing state

Democrats have been sunny in their hopes to flip Florida in the presidential and Senate elections in November, but Republicans have expanded a key advantage that wasn't in their favor four years ago.

The Florida Republican Party announced Sunday that it expanded its voter registration advantage in the state to more than 1 million voters, more than three years after gaining the edge over Florida Democrats for the first time. The voter registration edge for Republicans comes after the party's dominance in recent years in the former battleground state.

"Our success goes beyond just numbers," Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power said in a statement Sunday. "It's about a vision to make Florida the beacon of freedom for the rest of the country.

"Thanks to the tireless efforts of our volunteers and the unwavering commitment of our Republican elected officials, we have built the most successful party in the nation. Together, we will continue to show the rest of the country that Florida leads the way," Power added.

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won the Sunshine State was in 2012, when Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by roughly 74,000 votes. In November 2012, the Democrats held an advantage of 557,544 participants in voter registration over the GOP, but by the time former President Donald Trump won the state for a second time in a row, in November 2020, that advantage had shrunk to a lead of 106,986 voters for Democrats.

The number of voters registered to the Republican Party in Florida surpassed their Democratic counterparts in 2021. A year later, in 2022, the GOP had a red wave in the Sunshine State, with all their statewide candidates winning by at least 16.4% over their Democratic opponents and Republicans winning supermajorities in both state chambers.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who was at the top of the ticket for the Florida races in 2022, stressed that "leadership matters" in reaction to the voter registration figures.

Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 — and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history.

Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought… https://t.co/MZ7m96s5TW

"Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 — and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history," DeSantis said on Sunday. "Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought possible (and contrary to the many predictions that FL would become a blue state). Leadership matters. Bold colors, not pale pastels."

Democrats are banking on using an abortion ballot measure in November to boost support and potentially gain an upset victory in Florida, but other obstacles, such as the voter registration disadvantage, remain.

The Florida Democratic Party accused Florida Republicans of voter suppression, saying that efforts to clean voter rolls of inactive voters removed Democratic voters.

“This empty rhetoric is not new — Republicans have used every dirty trick in the book to suppress votes in Florida,” Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said in a statement Sunday.

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“Today’s results are a product of a systematic and coordinated effort of Republican voter suppression tactics, which has eliminated millions of Democratic voters from the rolls over the past year, marking them inactive and canceling mail-in-ballots," Fried continued.

Florida is expected to vote Republican in the presidential and Senate elections. The Cook Political Report has rated both races in the Sunshine State as "likely Republican."