Harris gives Florida Democrats hope as GOP writes off ‘sugar high’

Democrats in Florida are eyeing Vice President Kamala Harris to help end their drought in the Sunshine State , where the last time the party captured a statewide race for the White House or Senate was 2012.

Down-ballot races like the Senate fight between Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), which Tuesday's primaries will solidify, are top of mind for state Democrats.

The Mucarsel-Powell campaign told the Washington Examiner it's seen a notable uptick in support from voters since Harris's rise to the top of the ticket.

"In the last couple of weeks, we have seen an increase in donations to our campaign, volunteer signups, and text-bank shift signups," a spokesperson said.

But national party leaders, despite renewed public optimism, evidently feel their money is better spent elsewhere. Neither the Harris campaign nor national Democrats are ponying up the cash in a state that Republicans have tightened their grip on in the past decade.

Armed with fresh enthusiasm, new polling, and a surge of 22,000 Harris campaign volunteers in the state, Florida Democratic delegates are ready to pitch national party leaders and donors at next week’s convention to put their money where their mouth is.

“We're going to be telling them that we think the state is in play, and we need some money spent and some attention paid,” said Joseph Geller, a former Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman and Florida DNC delegate.

President Joe Biden faced a nearly double-digit deficit in the polls to former President Donald Trump. Harris has narrowed that gap to under five points. The most recent poll, from Florida Atlantic University, showed Harris within three at 47% to his 50%, raising questions whether Florida could reclaim its former status as a swing-state.

Republicans say not so fast.

A national GOP strategist involved in down-ballot races, who declined to be named, described Democrats as enjoying a honeymoon phase akin to a “nice little sugar high.”

Mike Berg, communications director for the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, noted neither Senate Democrats nor the Senate Majority PAC linked to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are putting money behind Florida TV ads to unseat Scott. Scott, who Senate Republicans are also not putting money behind, is one of three vying to be Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) successor next year.

“We're by no means going to run away with the race,” said a Scott campaign spokesperson. “If Democrats nationally decided to put money into it, I think that would kind of change things. Until Kamala Harris is spending resources in Florida or national Democrats are spending, I think they're kind of strongly signaling where they think the race really is.”

The Mucarsel-Powell campaign noted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made a seven-figure digital ad buy for the race in April and said it'd welcome any additional funding from the campaign arm or other Democratic allies.

Florida Democrats in recent Senate and gubernatorial races have held high hopes that failed to bear fruit.

In 2022, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) sailed through reelection against then-Rep. Val Demings (R-FL) by a 16-point margin, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) won reelection against then-Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) by a whopping nearly 20 points.

But other contests have been far narrower. In 2018, then-Gov. Rick Scott unseated former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) by just 0.2%, and DeSantis won the Governor’s Mansion against Democrat Andrew Gillum by only 0.4%.

Mucarsel-Powell, in the Florida Atlantic University poll, was down to Scott by four points with 43% to his 47%.

Scott maintains an overall cash advantage and has the ability to self-fund, pouring more than $60 million of his own money in 2018 to oust Nelson. This cycle, he’s raised $30 million as of the end of July and had $3.8 million in the bank.

Mucarsel-Powell raised $14.3 million and had $4.3 million cash on hand. But last month, with Biden's exit from the race, she raked in $2.2 million in July alone compared to Scott's less than $700,000.

An upset victory in Florida for Mucarsel-Powell — and Harris, for that matter — would likely mean Democrats sweep the half-dozen or so official battleground states and expand their one-seat Senate majority.

Also buoying expectations among Democrats, including the Mucarsel-Powell campaign, for stronger voter turnout is an abortion ballot measure to roll back Florida’s 6-week ban.

On sheer voting numbers alone, Democrats are at a disadvantage that has intensified over the last several cycles.

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Florida Republicans now have a record-setting 1 million more registered voters than Democrats, with the GOP clocking in at 5.3 million to Democrats' 4.3 million. But the amount of those with no party affiliation aren't far behind at 3.5 million. State Democrats said the GOP figure was the result of a “systemic and coordinated effort of Republican voter suppression tactics.”

“Republicans have used every dirty trick in the book to suppress votes in Florida,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in a recent statement.