Gaetz-McCarthy rivalry takes center stage with Florida House primary

The long-standing rivalry between Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will come to a head on Tuesday as Gaetz faces a McCarthy-backed primary challenger.

Gaetz will face Republican Aaron Dimmock, a retired Navy pilot who is backed by McCarthy. The race is personal for the former speaker: McCarthy was ousted after Gaetz and seven other House Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to remove him from the top leadership position last fall.

The Freedom Patriots PAC, which is connected to McCarthy allies, has spent $3 million supporting Dimmock and attacking Gaetz over a since-closed Justice Department investigation into his alleged involvement in the sex trafficking of a 17-year-old girl. Gaetz, who has repeatedly denied the claims, still faces a House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged sexual misconduct and illegal drug use.

He blames McCarthy personally for the House investigation.

“Usually, I’ve had a resource advantage when I’ve run,” Gaetz told NPR on Friday. “I’m going to be outspent 3 or 4 to 1 in this contest because Kevin McCarthy has mobilized the millions of dollars he had in his political committees to run advertisements against me.”

Dimmock faces an uphill battle to defeat the hard-line incumbent. Gaetz has won recent House races with well over the 50% majority needed and is on track to do so again. A July poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found Gaetz with 67% support compared to Dimmock's 20%.

"In northwest Florida, Gaetz's name is even bigger than it would be, say, in Washington, in the sense that his father was a Senate president," GOP strategist Ford O'Connor told the Washington Examiner. "When it comes to northwest Florida, Matt Gaetz is a household name."

Now, McCarthy allies are setting their sights on a longer-term goal as they prepare for the possibility that Dimmock will lose Tuesday's primary. They are hoping the negative ad campaign against Gaetz will affect his chances of becoming governor of Florida in 2026, according to ABC News.

Eyes are already on Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to lead the Republican gubernatorial primary field, with some anticipating Gaetz could enter the mix. However, Gaetz has pushed back on claims that he is running for statewide office in that cycle.

"I have no plans to run for Governor," Gaetz said in a post to X on Monday. "I like my job and I want to help President Trump in Washington. If those plans change, I hope I have opposition as incompetent as these dorks," referring to the Freedom Patriots PAC.

A Florida Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner that this primary is McCarthy allies trying to "message test ways to harm Matt Gaetz for when he tries to move to a bigger stage." But, the strategist noted, it's not sticking in Gaetz's 1st Congressional District.

"I just don't see him being harmed in North Florida. That area, it's Gaetz country," the strategist said. "I think what they're finding is that nothing is really working with those voters. Now, could that change across Florida as a whole? Yes, because obviously Florida is very different, particularly South Florida."

While allies of the former speaker have pledged millions to support Dimmock, McCarthy's leadership PAC has not directly contributed to Dimmock's campaign, as it did to the challengers of other Republicans who voted to oust him.

The Florida strategist said McCarthy is holding back funds for Dimmock likely to avoid giving Gaetz "all the billboard material" he needs.

"Remember, Speaker McCarthy is not very popular with Republican primary voters," the strategist added.

Gaetz made the opposite case, telling ABC News that he will win the primary because the "folks in Washington and California and Missouri don't quite understand the connection I have with the people of northwest Florida."

Dimmock's campaign said in a statement to the Washington Examiner that the retired Navy officer knew his race would be a difficult one given the short time he had to campaign.

"Aaron entered this race less than four months ago to provide Northwest Florida with an alternative to the chaos and embarrassments of Matt Gaetz's tenure in Congress," Dimmock's campaign said. "It's no secret that building a campaign from scratch against a career politician isn't easy, but that goal has never changed. Since we began this campaign, we've met with and heard from thousands of Congressman Gaetz's constituents who are ready for new leadership, and we look forward to them making their voices heard at the polls."

The removal of McCarthy, who resigned from Congress in December, highlighted a stark division in the GOP conference between hard-line Republicans and establishment lawmakers, with several House races this cycle reflecting the consequences of that fracture.

Gaetz's race is just one in McCarthy's so-called revenge tour, in which he has been going after the eight House GOP members who voted to remove him as speaker. He has seen one big win in Virginia, where House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) lost his primary and then a recount to Republican John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL.

However, McCarthy and his allies failed to unseat most of the eight: Reps. Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Eli Crane (R-AZ) bested their primary challengers, former Colorado Rep. Ken Buck and Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) decided not to run for reelection, and Reps. Andy Biggs (R-TN) and Tim Burchett (R-TN) ran in uncontested primaries.

There are some parallels between Gaetz's and Good's races when it comes to fellow House colleagues donating to their opponents. The campaign of Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) donated to Dimmock , according to the Hill.

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In Good's contest, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) and Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), a House Freedom Caucus member, were among the Republicans who supported McGuire. Van Orden, in particular, has not been shy in sharing his dislike of Good and Gaetz, arguing they are "bullies" and he looks forward to seeing them gone from Congress.

The Washington Examiner reached out to Dimmock's campaign for comment.