Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in a Nebraska district that could sway the presidential election with its single Electoral College vote.
Harris leads Trump by at least 8 percentage points in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, garnering 50% of the electorate compared to the former president's 42%, according to a new poll conducted by Remington Research Group. That is the widest gap seen in the district during the 2024 cycle, which previously showed Trump and President Joe Biden with alternating leads.
The poll is also the first since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket and corresponds with a major Democratic polling boost nationwide. Republicans, for their part, are banking on that momentum petering out as Election Day nears.
“As the election gets closer, the momentum behind President Donald J. Trump is only growing,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Liz Huston told the Nebraska Examiner . “Nebraskans want common sense.”
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District holds one of the most coveted electoral votes in the country thanks to state law.
Nebraska operates under a congressional district method, meaning the state allocates two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote, and then it awards one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district. Nebraska has three congressional districts, creating four popular vote contests in the state, often leading to a split electoral outcome.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which contains much of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area, is considered a blue dot in an otherwise red state.
The swing district has pivoted back and forth over the last decade, with former President Barack Obama winning in 2008 before Republican nominee Mitt Romney took it back in 2012. Trump then secured the district in 2016 before it swung back to Democrats in 2020.
Now, the single electoral vote could be what breaks a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, a distinct possibility given the 2024 map, and both campaigns are pouring resources into the district to ensure a victory.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Trump's running mate, is set to visit Omaha on Wednesday for a private fundraiser featuring several GOP governors and congressional lawmakers from Nebraska and Iowa, according to the Nebraska Examiner.
Meanwhile, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), the Democratic vice presidential candidate, has sought to play up his Nebraska roots in recent weeks in an effort to win over the 2nd District.
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During a campaign stop in Omaha over the weekend, Walz leaned heavily on his childhood in the Cornhusker State as well as his love for Nebraska football. Walz used his upbringing to attack Trump and Vance, arguing the Republican ticket doesn’t understand Nebraska values.
“We have a slogan here: Nebraska, it is not for everyone,” he told the crowd. “Well, it certainly ain’t for Donald Trump, I’ll tell you that much.”
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