Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves North Carolina to ‘toss-up’

Vice President Kamala Harris 's chances in a crucial battleground state appear to be improving.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted North Carolina from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" on Tuesday. The move comes after two major pollsters found Harris leading over former President Donald Trump in the Tar Heel State.

Polls from the New York Times-Siena College and the Cook Political Report show Harris with a 2% and 1% lead in the state, respectively, but three other recent polls have shown Trump leading Harris, making the RealClearPolitics polling average for the head-to-head matchup a 1.2% Trump lead.

The group's shift of North Carolina to "toss-up" marks the second time this month they have moved a state from the Republican column to a "toss-up," with the other state being Georgia. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also said North Carolina has the best chance of being the "reddest" among the key swing states.

Democrats have had their sights set on North Carolina for much of the 2024 presidential race after it was the closest state to vote for Trump over President Joe Biden in 2020.

Since 1980, Democrats have only won North Carolina once in the presidential election, in 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama beat then-Sen. John McCain by less than half a percentage point.

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North Carolina joins six other states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — that have been rated as "toss-up" contests by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Of the seven "toss-up" states, only North Carolina voted for Trump in 2020, but all of the "toss-up" states, except Nevada, voted for Trump in 2016.

The shift in Harris's favor comes as she is set to accept the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Thursday night. The convention will also have high-profile speakers on Tuesday and Wednesday night, including former President Barack Obama and Harris's running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).