New York Democrats counting on an abortion ballot measure boosting turnout for their party have been increasingly worried it has become a problem for swing-seat candidates.
Conservatives have effectively blasted the amendment for including provisions on "gender identity" and "gender expression" that connect with a nationwide attack on Democrats involving nonbiological females playing in women's sports.
While abortion and broad LGBT rights have outright support in the state, provisions about "gender identity," "pregnancy outcomes," and allowing for gender transition surgeries for minors are turning off some supporters. Internal polling shows that messaging about mixed-gender sports, in particular, has moved voters in battleground House districts, according to Politico.
New York has plenty of swing districts. The Cook Political Report projects the state has at least seven districts that are competitive, three of which are toss-ups with Republican incumbents.
“But if you add in the far-right talking points about this — boys competing in girls’ sports — support erodes quickly, and in these swing districts, it can dampen the enthusiasm for the candidates who are running on a support position,” one Democrat said.
Abortion has been a particularly critical nationwide issue this election cycle after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago. Even in Republican states, abortion rights have been an issue voters will back.
Vice President Kamala Harris has built her campaign around support for abortion and reproduction rights.
But in New York, the language of the "equality amendment" has caused trouble for what looked like an easy way for Democrats to boost turnout at the polls for their voters. Republicans in the state have been hammering away at the amendment, comparing it to the campaign to add a 1923-esque Equal Rights Amendment to the state constitution.
"The broad and ambiguous language of the ERA would create new constitutional rights and likely become the subject of litigation by activist groups seeking to create new 'rights' inconsistent with the views of most New Yorkers," the Republican Party of New York wrote in a statement.
"Among these new 'rights' are 'gender identity' and 'gender expression' covering 'all persons' including minor children," it continued. "The ERA would create a constitutional right to medical transgender procedures without parental consent. As a new constitutional 'right,' the ERA would override any existing statutes requiring parental consent for medical interventions to minors. Schools would likely be banned from disclosing students becoming transgender to their parents. Passage of this amendment would also mean that biological males could assert a new constitutional 'right' to participate on female sports teams, jeopardizing the fairness of such contests."
Democrats want to answer attacks against the amendment but also appear to be caught in a catch-22: If they respond to attacks, the amendment will be considered partisan, something they don't want because it has hurt ballot amendments in other states. But if they let the attacks fester, the amendment could be struck down or deal with heavier opposition than expected.
“We exist in a political climate where there’s a lot of misinformation out there, and I just would tell the voters to make sure they’re knowledgeable about that proposition and understand what it’s supposed to do,” said John Mannion, who is running in a Democratic-leaning district against incumbent Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY).
Conservatives believe the amendment could boost their voter turnout, too.
“We think this jazzes up our voters, too,” said Gerard Kassar, the chairman of the Conservative Party of New York, a right-leaning ballot line. “We have every desire to talk about this and explain what we believe it does.”
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And the Conservative Party has been effective at toppling ballot issues. In 2021, the party helped fund an effort to oppose a ballot amendment, which went on to fail, that would have expanded absentee voting.
“We’ve seen in recent history that when the right wing in New York wants to take down a ballot initiative, they have wealthy people who will help them do that,” said Loren Amor, a Democratic consultant. “They can be quite effective, especially if there isn’t a proportional response.”
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