Tester trails Sheehy by 8 points in Montana Senate race: Poll

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by 8 percentage points, 49%-41%, in the U.S. Senate race in Montana , a new AARP poll shows.

In a two-way race, Tester gains a little ground, shifting his deficit to 6 points, 51%-45%.

It is the latest sign Democrats may lose Montana this November, and possibly their Senate majority with it. While Tester has won three straight elections, 2024 is the first time he is running with former President Donald Trump on the ballot in the decisively red state.

“Trump is running ahead of Sheehy with almost every age and partisan group, but Tester is not overperforming Harris by enough to overcome the large gap at the top of the ticket,” according to the memo, which also warns that “Tester and Harris have both nearly maxed out their vote share among Democrats.”

Harris has reinvigorated some Democratic candidates' races but does not seem to have had the same effect on Tester, who has declined to endorse her for president.

Republicans are impressed by Sheehy's polling, even though both parties are pouring money into the state. Democrats have spent a whopping $128 million compared to the GOP's $109 million in advertising and ad reservations so far this cycle.

"Even in the 2020 Senate race, which Steve [Daines] won by double digits, we never saw numbers as strong as we are seeing now from Tim Sheehy," NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman told Axios.

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If Republicans can capture Montana, it will likely be the tipping point for GOP Senate control. West Virginia, with Sen. Joe Manchin's (I-WV) departure, will likely go to Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) by a landslide. Several other states, including Michigan and Ohio, are considered toss-ups.

Barring an upset in Texas or Florida, Republicans are likely to at least split the Senate 50-50 with Democrats.