The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its predictions for eight House seats, swinging six districts in Democrats’ favor just two months before Election Day.
The shifted projections reflect growing momentum for down-ballot Democrats after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, giving the party a boost in its efforts to reclaim the House majority. The overall shift gives Democrats an advantage in six districts and Republicans a boost in two districts, with the Cook Political Report predicting the most likely outcome to be “a single-digit gain for either party.”
"Two months out from Election Day, Democrats’ prospects for taking control of the House are looking considerably brighter than they did two months ago,” Erin Covey, editor for House races at Cook Political Report, said in a statement. “Democratic candidates are no longer burdened by an unpopular incumbent president, free to run in a political environment where Republicans no longer have a clear enthusiasm advantage.”
The latest projections even show Democrats gaining momentum in Texas’s 28th Congressional District, where Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) is running for reelection despite facing charges of conspiracy to commit bribery, bribery of a federal official, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud, violating a ban on public officials acting as foreign agents, and several money laundering violations.
The seat was most recently considered Lean Democrat but is now projected to be Likely Democrat.
The shifted projections also move three seats into toss-up territory, including Alaska’s at-large House seat that was once considered Lean Democrat; California’s 45th Congressional District that was once considered Lean Republican; and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District that was once considered Lean Republican. Additionally, one seat is being moved out of the toss-up category: Ohio’s 9th Congressional District.
Those moves now mean toss-up races are almost evenly split, with 13 toss-up seats being held by Republicans and 11 held by Democrats.
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Although unlikely, if Democrats were able to sweep the 24 toss-up seats and hold the seats they are favored in, that would give the party a nine-seat majority. On the other side, if Republicans were able to sweep the toss-ups and hold all other seats, they would have a 14-seat majority.
As a result, Democrats are likely to keep their focus on ousting 16 GOP incumbents in districts won by Biden in 2020 whereas Republicans will seek to do the same to the five House Democrats in seats won by former President Donald Trump.
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