Tim Sheehy gets ratings edge over Jon Tester in Montana Senate battle

A lead nonpartisan elections forecaster changed its outlook Friday on the closely watched Montana Senate race , switching the rating from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

The shift from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is welcome news for Republican and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy , who’s gunning to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in what is Senate Democrats’ most vulnerable seat that is crucial to maintaining their slim majority.

If the outlook holds true, Republicans would seal their majority fate. Democrats must defend Montana, where former President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2020, and another seven competitive seats they currently hold to keep the majority.

A poll released Thursday showed Tester down by eight percentage points to Sheehy, at 49%-41%, a leading contributor to Crystal Ball tipping the race in the GOP’s favor, a reversal of a day earlier. The average of recent polls shows Tester down by roughly 4.5 points.

NEW: Crystal Ball Senate Rating Change -->

Montana: Toss-up to Leans Republican

(See link for explanation as to why we're doing this today after not doing it yesterday)

51 Sen seats now Safe/Likely/Lean R in our ratings, solidifying R Senate edge https://t.co/IjeFKGhDvZ pic.twitter.com/VFAnkuFNFs

Other nonpartisan elections forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, still consider Montana a “toss-up" for the Senate.

Neither campaign responded to requests for comment.

Senate Republicans' campaign arm cited Tester's voting record, which aligns with the Biden administration the vast majority of the time, as the reason polls suggest he's losing support.

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"Montanans aren’t buying Tester's moderate shtick anymore," said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Maggie Abboud.

Enshrining abortion rights into Montana’s constitution will come before voters in Big Sky Country this November after receiving enough signatures to appear on the ballot, buoying Democrats’ hopes that it will help Tester secure a fourth term in the red state.