It’s September. The countdown to the November elections is getting louder. Both sides know the remaining swing voters they need to win will not be persuaded by platitudes. Sure, everyone wants to make America great, and who could be opposed to a stronger, more prosperous middle class ? But it’s time for retail politics: What will you do for me? Just me? And it has to be free!
Like usual, the candidates are responding. Just don’t be surprised, in four years or 20, when that changes.
Whether it be no more taxes on tips or Social Security checks, forgiving student debt, free money for home-purchase down payments, mandated access to in vitro fertilization or child care services, controls on grocery or rental costs, or raising minimum wages, the candidates are full of “free-lunch” promises.
Yes, elect me, and you’ll get your favorite lunch every day. How will I pay? Not to worry. I’ll simply borrow the money or print it. In politics, making someone else pay, preferably someone you don’t even know, works more times than not.
Of course, taken together as citizens of this great nation, we understand there is no such thing as a free lunch. Somebody, somewhere, sometime will have to pay. But both of our canny presidential candidates also know it’s counterproductive to talk about exploding public debt — and not just because their respective administrations helped pack the dynamite. Doing so confuses the free-lunch message that wins you four years in the White House.
A chart produced by Ryan Yonk and Thomas Savidge at the American Institute for Economic Research conveys the debt story in clear terms. Borrowed money has been the ticket to all these free lunches.
Despite what some say, it can’t go on forever. Eventually, those arguments, or mine, give way to the debt speaking for itself. The reckoning comes when the cost of paying the interest alone, with nothing in return, begins to squeeze out essential government services.
Are we there yet? According to an analysis by the Peterson Foundation : “In fiscal year 2024, the federal government will spend more on interest than on defense as well as non-defense discretionary, which includes funding for transportation, veterans, education, health, international affairs, natural resources and environment, general science and technology, general government, and more.”
Taking a step further and relying on Congressional Budget Office numbers, the foundation reports that “interest will become the largest category in the federal budget in 2051 — exceeding the amount spent on Social Security that year.”
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We all know this won’t actually happen. Between now and 2051, with entitlements on the line, the politics of free lunches will be turned upside-down. But that’s the point: When future politicians must shut down popular or critical government functions in order to provide more free goodies, the game quickly changes.
Until then, we all want another free lunch. No more platitudes, please. And for now, no more talk of debt. Meanwhile, the day of reckoning is coming.
Bruce Yandle is a distinguished adjunct fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, a dean emeritus of the Clemson College of Business and Behavioral Sciences, and a former executive director of the Federal Trade Commission.
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