Mat Staver is the former dean of Liberty University’s law school, a snow-haired 67-year-old who has argued two cases before the Supreme Court . For a week last month, he acted as much like an old-time blues musician.
The founder of Liberty Counsel, an Orlando , Florida -based Christian legal group, Staver hit the road to meet evangelical pastors and explain why they should oppose a Nov. 5 referendum that would gut Florida’s restrictions on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy and enshrine a qualified right to abortion until birth.
Staver traveled to five counties President Joe Biden carried in 2020, beginning in Duval County, home to Jacksonville, and ending four days later down Florida’s Atlantic coast in Miami-Dade County. He was eager to explain in person the fine print of the Amendment to Limit Government Interference With Abortion, otherwise known as Amendment 4.
For Amendment 4 to be approved, a simple majority of Florida voters is insufficient. Because the initiative would change the state’s constitution, it requires approval from 60%. Not even similar abortion referendums in Ohio last year and Michigan two years ago reached the threshold.
“I’m not taking anything for granted,” Staver said in an Aug. 20 interview. “This is winnable. We have to get the message out about how extreme this measure is.”
The anti-abortion movement’s greatest victory, famously, was at the Supreme Court two years ago. In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the high court struck down Roe v. Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992). By concluding the Constitution contains no right to abortion, Dobbs held that the power to regulate abortion comes not from the courts but rather from Congress and state legislatures.
Twenty-two states passed laws that anti-abortion lawmakers say provide significant protections for unborn human beings from abortion. Yet Dobbs has sparked a political backlash. In the past two years, voters in seven states weighed abortion on a state ballot initiative. All seven times, they voted for abortion rights, including in reliably Republican states such as Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio.
This fall, abortion will be on the ballot in nine states, the most ever. Of the initiatives, the most consequential may be in Florida, the nation’s third-most populous state. Former President Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee living in Palm Beach County, is opposed.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) opposes Amendment 4, yet he said he has no plans to hit the campaign trail to urge voters to reject it.
“I have my own election to worry about,” Scott said in an interview at the Capitol on Aug. 1, referring to his reelection bid against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a race the Cook Political Report projects he is likely to win.
Anti-abortion leaders express optimism about the outcome in November.
“I think (Amendment 4) will fail,” said former Florida state Sen. Kelli Stargel, a Republican, citing three reasons besides the 60% threshold needed to pass.
First, the Amendment would grant a qualified right to abortion until birth — an overwhelmingly unpopular position. “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability,” the amendment reads, “or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
The dependent clause is key. Viability is typically understood to be after the unborn human has lived in the womb for 22 to 24 weeks. Under Amendment 4, a doctor could perform an abortion on a woman's eight-month pregnancy by signing a form that says the procedure was necessary to protect the woman’s health. How Florida officials would interpret health is, by all accounts, guesswork.
Second, Amendment 4 might repeal a popular provision in Florida law that requires minors seeking an abortion to receive approval from parents. Amendment 4 would forbid the state from imposing any “delay” on abortion, and requiring consent would represent a delay. According to a Pew Research Center survey two years ago, 56% expressed approval for parental consent laws aimed at those 18 years or younger.
Lastly, Florida’s abortion law is harder for opponents to demonize. It contains exceptions for abortion in cases of rape and incest up through 15 weeks gestation, a popular provision. By contrast, neither Ohio’s 2019 “heartbeat” law nor Michigan’s 1931 law contained the exceptions. Abortion rights supporters succeeded in depicting them as cruel and demeaning to women.
Despite those four reasons, Florida pro-lifers admit their side has liabilities. Chief among those is the state’s new abortion law, which prohibits abortion after six weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest, and human trafficking.
As of September, polls show an uncertain outcome. Three recent surveys found the referendum falling shy of the 60% mark, with 55% to 58% support. Yet 5% to 23% were unsure. To defeat the measure, anti-abortion supporters will need to win the lion’s share of the undecided voters.
Staver claims, without evidence, that if Amendment 4 were approved, the state would be required to pay for abortions. Yet Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is right to point out the threat posed by the state ballot initiatives this fall to the pro-life cause.
“If you care about building a culture of life in this state or this country, them winning in Florida, I think, really represents the end of the pro-life movement,” he said on Aug. 15 at Jesuit High School in Tampa.
In addition to Florida, ballot measures in six other states this November would create a qualified right to abortion throughout pregnancy — Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota.
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“The abortion industry will be left to police itself,” Peter Northcott, director of state strategies for National Right to Life, said in an interview. Floridians Protecting Freedom, an abortion-rights group, did not return two emails for comment.
But opponents are taking little for granted. Which will keep Northcott, Staver, and others on the road for weeks to come.
Mark Stricherz, a reporter in Washington, D.C., keeps a blog on nonfiction writing at MarkStricherz.com and is the author of Why the Democrats are Blue (Encounter Books).
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