VANCE’S VISION OF UKRAINE PEACE: Former President Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), has laid out a vision of how he expects Trump’s plan to bring the war in Ukraine to a quick end will play out, and it’s pretty much everything Russian President Vladimir Putin could have hoped for.
Trump has repeatedly refused to say he wants Ukraine to win but has promised to end the war as soon as he wins the November election — before he actually takes office. “I will get that settled and fast, and I’ll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended,” Trump said at this week’s debate with Vice President Kamala Harris . “If I’m president-elect, I’ll get it done before even becoming president.”
“I think what this looks like is, Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans, you guys need to figure out, ‘what does a peaceful settlement look like?’” Vance said in a podcast interview Thursday with former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan .
“And what it probably looks like is something like the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine — that becomes like a demilitarized zone, it’s heavily fortified so the Russians don’t invade again,” Vance said. “Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty. Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine, it doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join you know some of these sort of allied institutions. And I think that’s ultimately what this looks like.”
“This is exactly what Putin wants, with one amendment. He would ask Trump to not give weapons to Ukraine,” Michael McFaul , former U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, posted on X . “Who thinks that Trump wouldn’t give him that concession too?”
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky firmly rejected the Vance approach at a forum on Crimea in Kyiv this week. “We will not leave anything or anyone in captivity,” Zelensky said. “I want all our citizens in the temporarily occupied territories to hear this: Ukraine does not trade its land and does not abandon its people.”
BLINKEN: ‘WE’RE DETERMINED TO SEE UKRAINE WIN THIS WAR’: Speaking in Poland, one day after consulting with Zelensky in Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration’s goal remains to help Ukraine secure a victory against Russia and join the West.
“Can Ukraine still win? Yes. In fact, we’re determined to see Ukraine win this war,” Blinken said at a news conference with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in Warsaw. “Time and again, we’ve seen Ukrainian success against the odds. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson; the pushing back of the Russian fleet from the Black Sea, even though Ukraine has no fleet of its own; what’s happening now in Kursk — time and again, the Ukrainian people, supported by an extraordinary coalition of more than 50 countries, have demonstrated that they have the will and, if we sustain it — and we will — the capacity to succeed.”
“I don’t think we can change the mind of President Putin, but we can change his calculus,” outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview on CNN . “We need to make sure that he understands that he cannot win on the battlefield. He will pay a high price, it will be a lot of suffering if he continues to fight this war. And then he may be willing to sit down and accept a solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation in Europe.”“Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is irreversible,” Blinken said in Kyiv Wednesday. “It’s what the Ukrainian people want. It’s also essential as Ukraine moves down the path to the European Union and to NATO.”
RUSSIA MOVES TO TAKE BACK KURSK: The debate over Ukraine’s prospects for victory on its terms continues as Russia has launched a counteroffensive to attempt to reclaim the several hundred square miles of the Kursk region in Russia that was captured by Ukraine in a surprise offensive last month.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had recaptured ten settlements in Kursk. However, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said it has “yet to observe visual confirmation that Russian forces have recaptured any of these settlements” and called the advances “marginal,” an assessment shared by the Pentagon.
“What we have seen is Russian units beginning to try to conduct some type of counter-offensive in the Kursk region,” Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a Pentagon briefing. “At this stage I would say that it’s, you know, marginal, but something obviously that we’re keeping an eye on.”
“Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control,” the ISW said. “Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces do have control.”
Video posted on X showed what appeared to be a successful strike by Ukraine using cluster munitions from a U.S. HIMARS rocket system to take out a group of Russian infantry along the bank of the Seym River in Kursk that was using a temporary pontoon bridge to cross the river.
“The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces stated that the Russian troops were preparing to conduct assaults against Ukrainian positions in the area,” the ISW said.
WILL THESE WARS NEVER END?
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie . Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre .
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
HAPPENING TODAY: Before heading to Delaware for the weekend, President Joe Biden will hold a late afternoon meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to firm up a plan that reportedly will allow Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory.
The New York Times, quoting European officials , says Biden is leaning toward a change in the U.S. policy barring the use of Western weapons to strike targets far from the front lines, so long as Ukraine doesn’t use arms provided by the United States. The report cites American officials as saying Biden has not made a decision ahead of his meeting with Starmer.
Ukraine pressed its case with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy in their meeting with Ukrainian officials. Blinken promised to brief Biden on how Ukraine hopes to expand the use of U.S. long-range ATACMS systems.
“I’m not going to get into operational details in a public setting, but I can again assure that we will adapt, we will adjust, and make sure that Ukraine has what it needs when it needs it to deal with this Russian aggression,” Blinken said in Poland.
“I would tell you, there has been no change to our policy,” Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at the Pentagon. “I don't have anything to announce, and certainly, if there are any changes, we'll let you know. But as of today, that policy has not changed.”
PUTIN: USE OF LONG-RANGE WEAPONS MEANS NATO IS ‘AT WAR WITH RUSSIA’: In an interview with a Russian state-controlled news reporter, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that permitting Ukraine to use sophisticated, precision, long-range weapons supplied by the West is tantamount to NATO going to war with Russia.
“The Ukrainian army is unable to strike with modern, high-precision weapons systems of long-range Western production. It cannot do this. This is only possible with the use of satellite intelligence data, which Ukraine does not have,” Putin said. “Only NATO servicemen can carry that out.”
“We are talking about making a decision whether NATO countries will directly participate in the military conflict or not,” he said. “If this decision is made it will mean nothing else as a direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct participation. And of course, this significantly changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”
“This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, European countries are at war with Russia,” he said, adding “We will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be posed to us.”
U.S. TROOPS TO LEAVE IRAQ BY 2026: One of the favorite responses for dodging inconvenient questions at Washington briefings is the handy phrase, “I don’t have anything new to announce.”
Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder responded to a question from the Washington Post about statements from the Iraqi government that the U.S. has agreed to withdraw most of its 2,500 troops over the next two years.
“As we’ve highlighted, we have been discussing with our Iraqi partners what the transition from the global coalition in Iraq — what that transition would look like to an enduring bilateral security partnership between the U.S. and Iraq would look like,” Ryder said. “We’ll keep you fully informed when we have something to announce. But as of right now, I do not have any updates to provide.”
Iraqi Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi told al-Arabiya television that an agreement had been reached to draw down U.S. troops in two stages. “The first phase will begin this year and continue until 2025, while the second phase will conclude in 2026,” Abbasi said.
STOLTENBERG: AFGHANISTAN A ‘PAINFUL’ LESSON IN ‘MISSION CREEP’: In his exit interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour , NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg lamented that in its 20 years in Afghanistan, the alliance failed to build “a democratic free Afghanistan with equal rights for men and women.”
“What happened, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, that was and remains painful,” said Stoltenberg, who steps down at the end of the month. “We tried something that we didn’t achieve … We realized after some years that was too ambitious. That was something that required too much.”
“I think one of the lessons learned from Afghanistan is the danger of mission creep. We started in 2001, that was right to go in and to fight al Qaeda, to take Osama bin Laden . So, what started as a focused counterterrorism operation moved into a big ambitious nation-building mission,” he said. “But after 20 years and after paying a high price in blood and treasure, we realized, NATO allies realized, the United States realized that we could not continue this. And therefore, we made the decision to leave Afghanistan.”
“I believe that was the right decision,” he said. “But I believe that we should have, in a way, understood it earlier and stayed on the first mission fighting terrorism.”
BOEING STRIKE : At a minute after midnight Pacific time, 33,000 Boeing machinists walked off the job in a labor dispute that will shut down production of some of the company’s best-selling airline planes, including 737 Max, the 777, or “triple-seven jet,” and the 767 cargo plane.
Union members voted overwhelmingly to go on strike and reject a tentative contract that would have increased wages by 25% over four years. The strike is not expected to affect the production of Boeing 787 Dreamliners, which are built by nonunion workers in South Carolina.
“The message was clear that the tentative agreement we reached with IAM leadership was not acceptable to the members,” Boeing said in a statement . “ We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner : Will these wars never end?
Washington Examiner : DOJ drops Jan. 6 obstruction charges in more than half of pending cases
Washington Examiner : Georgia judge dismisses two charges against Trump in RICO case
Washington Examiner : DOJ official asked to appear before Congress over Jack Smith ethics allegations
Washington Examiner : Garland speech on DOJ impartiality met with skepticism from critics: ‘A little late’
Washington Examiner : House Republicans to hold Biden-Harris feet to fire in latest border crisis hearing
Washington Examiner : How a small city in Ohio became the epicenter of the immigration debate
Washington Examiner : Blinken fails to comply with House subpoena and faces contempt resolution
Washington Examiner : James Comer requests FBI documents on Tim Walz’s China ties
Washington Examiner : Israel strikes Hamas command center in UN school turned shelter in Gaza
Washington Examiner : US expected to file charges over believed Iranian hacking attack on Trump campaign
Washington Examiner: House lawmakers ready to turn page on spending battle as GOP discusses paths forward
Washington Examiner : Trump ally Laura Loomer rebuked by White House and MAGA allies: ‘Stain on society’
Washington Examiner : Opinion: 'New world order': US national security threats aren’t just external
Washington Examiner : Dancing to Putin’s WW3 waltz, Trump deals strength for weakness
Washington Examiner : Opinion: Germany and Spain exemplify EU’s foreign policy crisis on China and Russia
AP : Ukraine says Russia has started a counteroffensive in its Kursk border region
AP : Biden to host ‘Quad’ leaders from Australia, India and Japan in his Delaware hometown
AP : Father of Turkish-American activist wants US probe into her killing by Israeli soldiers
Task & Purpose : US Looks to West Africa as New Hub for Counter-Terrorism Mission After Leaving Niger, Chad
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Senators Urge National Guard Chief Nominee to Stop Cuts at Bases
SpaceNews : US Defense Program Seeks Next-Generation Space Monitoring Tools
Defense One : Northrop Might Jump Back into NGAD Competition: CEO
Breaking Defense : Lockheed Could See $1B Financial ‘Impact’ This Quarter as F-35 Negotiations Drag On
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Air Force Elevates AFSOUTH as New ‘Service Component Command’
DefenseScoop : Pentagon Using AI to Modernize Legacy Code
Inside Defense : AFRL Generative AI Program Already Has 80,000 Users
Military.com : Air Force Looks to Add Telescopes on Sacred Hawaii Volcano as Outrage Continues over Fuel Spill
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Whiteman Picked over Dyess as Second Operational Base for B-21
Air & Space Forces Magazine : B-52 Bombers Fly to and from Poland for Exercise with Six NATO Allies
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 13
11 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: "The U.S., NATO, and the World," with U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/the-us-nato-and-the-world
2 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Political Violence and the 2024 Elections," with former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security Mary McCord , executive director, Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection; Eric Ward , executive vice president of Race Forward; and Aaron David Miller , senior fellow at the CEIP American Statecraft Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/09/political-violence
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies virtual discussion: “AI and Advanced Technologies in the Fight: Combatant Command and Service Collaboration,” with Schuyler Moore , chief technology officer, U.S. Central Command; Justin Fanelli , acting chief technology officer, Department of the Navy; Alex Miller , chief technology officer, chief of staff of the Army; and Gregory Allen , director, Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/ai-and-advanced-technologies
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 17
9 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group coffee-conversation with Jane Harman , chair, and Eric Edelman , vice chair, Congressional Commission on the National Defense Strategy RSVP, alaysia.mckenzie@gwu.edu
3 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion on the National Defense Strategy Commission Report: “Is the U.S. Defense Strategy Sufficient?” with JINSA Distinguished Scholar Amb. Eric Edelman, vice chairman, 2024 Commission on the NDS; Mara Rudman , commissioner, 2024 Commission on the NDS, and former deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs; Roger Zakheim , commissioner, 2024 Commission on the NDS, and director, Ronald Reagan Institute; and John Hannah , JINSA senior fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 19
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW— Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue in-peron and virtual discussion: “America Warfighting Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti ; Seth Jones , CSIS senior vice president and ISP director; and retired Navy Capt. Bill Hamblet , editor-in-chief, Proceedings, U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/americas-warfighting-navy
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: "Oversight of Extremism Policies in the Army” http://www.armedservices.house.gov
3 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person and virtual discussion: “Great power competition and overseas bases,” with Michael O’Hanlon , Knight chair in Defense and Strategy, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Geoffrey Gresh , professor, College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University; Dawn Murphy , associate professor, National Security Strategy, National War College; Andrew Yeo , senior fellow and SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings; and Isaac Kardon , senior fellow for China Studies, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
Local News
Comments / 0