‘Waffle House Index’ illustrates fears over Hurricane Milton’s impacts

The " Waffle House Index ," an unofficial but nonetheless reliable measurement for natural disasters, is already indicating trouble over Hurricane Milton .

Waffle House announced that 25 Waffle Houses in the Tampa Bay area and eight in the Fort Myers area had closed down as of 2 p.m. on Tuesday in Florida. The complete closing of several Waffle Houses in an area indicates the highest alert level: utmost severity.

Several other stores in the area were still operating at full capacity, however.

The Waffle House Index has become an unofficial gauge of how severe a natural disaster is, a practice that has been acknowledged by the Federal Emergency Management Agency .

The open-all-day popular chain restaurant is known for only closing in the direst of conditions, often staking out to provide food and resources for first responders during recovery efforts, according to USA Today. As the logic goes, if the ever-resilient Waffle Houses are closing, the situation must be severe.

A FEMA blog post detailed the effectiveness of the Waffle House Index.

“The Waffle House test just doesn’t tell us how quickly a business might rebound — it also tells how the larger community is faring,” a FEMA blog post states, according to the outlet. “The sooner restaurants, grocery and corner stores or banks can reopen, the sooner local economies will start generating revenue again — signaling a strong recovery for that community.”

“If you get there and the Waffle House is closed?” then-FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said in 2011, according to the Wall Street Journal. “That’s really bad. That’s where you go to work.”

On Tuesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra declared a public health emergency in Florida to better assist the response.

“We will do all we can to assist Florida officials with responding to the health impacts of Hurricane Milton,” he said. “We are working closely with state and local health authorities, as well as our partners across the federal government, and stand ready to provide additional public health and medical support.”

The Waffle House Index previously showed trouble for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during Hurricane Helene.

Indicators show that Hurricane Milton is set to be deadly just as Helene was; the storm was recently upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor issued a blunt warning to residents who hadn't yet evacuated.

“I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” she said.

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Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), who represents a district within the projected firing line of the hurricane, agreed.

“She is correct,” Luna posted on X. “If you do not evacuate, you will lose your life. Please leave if you are in an evac zone.”