WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEDNESDAY: Good afternoon and happy Wednesday, readers. In today's edition of Daily on Energy, Callie and Maydeen dive into all things green energy as several new reports and studies have revealed forecasts on renewable capacity targets, global emission levels, cost of power sources like hydrogen, and U.S. utility priorities. We also include a warning for the coffee industry as well as the latest on Hurricane Milton as the severe storm is on track to hit Florida later tonight as a category 4 hurricane. If you or your loved ones are still in the path of the storm, please heed evacuation warnings if you are able. Finally, today we launch a new daily election countdown, providing you with everything you need to know about energy and environmental policy before casting your ballot.
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson ( @CalliePatteson ) and Maydeen Merino ( @MaydeenMerino ). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH FALLING SHORT OF UNITED NATIONS TARGETS : Renewable energy is on track to generate half of all electricity demand around the globe by 2030, but is expected to fall short of United Nations targets to triple capacity the same year, the International Energy Agency said in a report released Wednesday.
The details : IEA estimated that over 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity will be operational by 2030, growing by 2.7 times since 2022. While the capacity is set to surpass many nations’ goals by nearly 25%, it stops short of meeting targets set during COP28. Last year, over 130 countries pledged to increase renewables capacity threefold – to at least 11,000 gigawatts.
To meet the goals, IEA recommended an accelerated phase out of fossil fuel-powered plants, as well as the construction of 15.5 million miles of electricity grids. The agency also called for the development of 1,500 gigawatts of renewable storage capacity.
Some background : While renewable energy sources are growing at record rates, industry experts have expressed concern that developments are not out-pacing increasing electricity demand. Grid operators, including PJM Interconnection, have pointed to this potential imbalance – also caused by the phase out of coal and fossil fuel power – as a reason behind rising rates.
Read more here .
HYDROGEN’S HIGH PRICE TAG : Hydrogen may not be a viable renewable, as the fuel source carries a price tag that researchers are now calling “prohibitively expensive.”
The details : Harvard researchers detailed extensive costs around storing and transporting green hydrogen energy in a Tuesday study published in the journal Joule. The researchers suggest the costs of green hydrogen, often thought to be a clean alternative to traditional power, are much greater than fossil fuels.
The study details that a metric ton of CO2 reduction using green hydrogen costs between $500 and $1,250. In comparison, the cost to capture and store carbon after using fossil fuels typically costs between $100 and $1,000.
Key quote : “If you look at the value proposition as a whole, there is no way [it’s cost effective]. It has to be cost competitive,” lead researcher Rozana Shafiee said, according to the Wall Street Journal.
A reminder : Green hydrogen is hydrogen energy produced through renewable sources such as solar and wind power. It is traditionally produced through electrolysis, only emitting water vapor. Meanwhile, blue hydrogen is hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, with carbon emissions being captured and stored after.
PEAKING EMISSIONS : Global carbon dioxide emissions generated by the energy industry are expected to reach their peak this year before an extended decline starts next year, according to a Wednesday report from risk management provider DNV, obtained by the Washington Examiner.
The details : DNV estimates that emissions will peak in 2024, then fall in half by 2050. The peak is primarily attributable to lowering costs of solar and batteries, which then support the phaseout of coal and oil power. Solar power and electric vehicles are becoming more affordable and attainable as solar installations increased by 80% while the cost of batteries dropped 14%, according to the report. DNV even reported seeing solar beat coal on costs in some regions.
Key quote : “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition,” DNV CEO and group president Remi Eriksen said. “Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”
What others are saying : If DNV’s projections come true, the peak for CO2 emissions would occur dramatically sooner than expected by major industry players. Oil and gas giant BP has previously forecast that emissions will peak closer to the middle of the decade, while Shell has estimated peaks will hit in 2030, Reuters reported .
COFFEE’S CLIMATE WAKE-UP : Coffee tycoon Andrea Illy is warning that coffee producers around the globe need to ‘adapt to climate change’ as prices for the morning fuel have soared.
The details : Illy, the chairman of Italian coffee company Illycaffe, told the Wall Street Journal that the coffee industry is seeing dramatic disruptions from climate change. Illy said this included excessive rain, extreme droughts, and unseasonably cold weather brought on by phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle: El Niño and La Niña.
“It’s unpredictable… we weren’t expecting such a mess this year,” Illy said. “Extreme weather in Brazil and extreme drought in Vietnam triggered a rally in prices, which we didn’t foresee. With these weather patterns, we can expect lower output in the years to come, which is the perfect trigger for market speculation. The situation is getting more and more volatile.”
To protect production and the market by extension, Illy said there needs to be more frequent renewal of coffee plantations and better economic practices to ensure cash flow and reinvestments.
Some background : Brazil is considered to be the top coffee exporter in the world, producing just over 39% of all global production. Between 2023 and 2024, Brazil produced around 66.3 million bags of coffee – a 6% increase from the year before. As extreme weather conditions and the effects of deforestation impact production in the country, prices may continue to be hit hard.
In June, coffee lovers saw the industry benchmark ICO Composite Indicator Price hit a 13-year-high of an average around $2.27 per pound. Prices continued to soar through September, reaching a record high of approximately $2.58 per pound – an 8.4% increase from August.
HURRICANE MILTON – HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL: Hurricane Milton is closing in on Florida’s west coast, as the category 4 storm is expected to make landfall later tonight.
Early Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center warned the storm was “growing in size,” bringing a life-threatening storm surge as high as 12 feet in Tampa Bay, damaging winds, and heavy flooding throughout central and southwestern areas of the state. Milton is currently packing winds as high as 130 mph. Several tornado warnings were issued across the Florida peninsula around 3 p.m. as tropical storm-force winds moved on shore and Milton was around 120 miles southwest of Tampa.
As millions have been urged to evacuate, thousands of flights have been canceled and delayed in and out of Florida’s Orlando, Tampa, and Southwest Florida airports.
Local and state officials have warned residents to expect extended power outages and even fatalities as a result of the storm.
Frightening footage : Cameras onboard the International Space Station captured footage of the monster hurricane, showcasing its enormous span from around 250 miles above the surface of the Earth. In releasing the footage, NASA urged anyone in the path of the storm to evacuate immediately. See the footage here .
SIERRA CLUB SAYS UTILITIES BEHIND ON CLIMATE GOALS: Utilities are not on pace to meet the Biden’s administration’s goal of reaching 100% clean electricity by 2035, as companies fail to fully implement their goals, according to a Wednesday report by the Sierra Club .
The report examined plans of 75 operating companies who own half of all U.S. coal and gas generation. It highlighted that many of these companies have climate pledges but are not transitioning to clean energy quick enough.
“[M]any utilities continue to fail to appropriately prepare for a clean energy future, wasting time as the clean energy transition becomes more urgent,” the report reads. “This failure has led to the timing and cost challenges that these companies are now trying to use as excuses to remain reliant on fossil fuels.”
The Biden administration has committed to reaching the milestone of 80% clean electricity by 2030. To fulfill that goal, the report said, utilities “must take full advantage of clean energy incentives, and regulators and leaders at the local, state, and federal levels must continue pushing utilities to plan for the future we need.”
ELECTION COUNTDOWN : The Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES), a nonprofit organization that engages with Republican lawmakers, announced Tuesday it would endorse three Republicans running for Senate and 37 Republicans running for House seats.
“Now more than ever, we need policymakers in Congress who embrace commonsense energy solutions that lower costs for American families and reduce global emissions. CRES is proud to endorse these leaders for doing just that,” CRES President Heather Reams said in a statement.
For the Senate, CRES endorsed Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Rep. John Curtis , who’s running for Utah’s open Senate seat, and former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland.
As for the House, CRES endorsed 40 Republican representatives, including Dan Crenshaw of Texas, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Carlos Gimenez of Florida, Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, Young Kim of California, Dan Newhouse of Washington, and Randy Weber of Texas.
CRES said each of these “played a leading role in advancing clean energy policies that reduce global emissions while addressing America’s energy needs.”
There are 26 days until election day.
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