RUSSIA LOSING 1,200+ SOLDIERS A DAY: The Pentagon and the British Defense Ministry both released numbers this week indicating Russia is suffering a staggering amount of daily casualties as it pursues a strategy of conducting high-tempo mechanized assaults to push its front lines further into Ukraine.
The Pentagon put the number of Russia dead and wounded since the start of the invasion at more than 600,000, while British Intelligence estimated the combat losses as over 648,000 casualties.
“Russian forces sustained more casualties in terms of both killed and wounded in action than in any other month of the war,” a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon Wednesday. “Russian losses, again, both killed and wounded in action in just the first year of the war exceeded the total of all Russian losses, or Soviet losses in any conflict since World War II combined.”
A U.K. defense intelligence update posted on X Monday said the average number of Russian casualties per day in Ukraine reached a new monthly high during September with a total of 1,271 a day compared to the previous high in May of 1,262.
“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv [in Ukraine] and Kursk [in Russia] military operations, an increased intensity along the front line,” read the assessment. “Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains.”
Neither the U.S. nor the U.K. would discuss Ukraine’s casualties, which are also believed to be high, though not as high as Russia’s.
UKRAINE’S ‘ROPE-A-DOPE’ STRATEGY: In its latest battlefield assessment , the Institute for the Study of War concluded Russia is racing against the coming mud season to consolidate gains before its tracked vehicles are bogged down by muddy ground conditions expected in the coming weeks.
“Poor weather conditions in fall 2024 and early winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanized and infantry maneuver, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties,” the ISW predicted.
With only a third of Russia’s population, Ukraine lacks the manpower to halt Russia’s advances, so it has adopted a “rope-a-dope” strategy aimed at “trading space for Russian losses,” Ukrainian commanders and strategists told the New York Times last week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alluded to the controlled retreat strategy when he met with NATO’s new Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Oct. 3 . “It is right that they retreat and save their lives for the sake of saving their lives,” Zelensky said. “Without certain equipment, we cannot stop the Russian Federation … It is destroying everything, and when it destroys the positions of our warriors, the warriors need to save their lives because they are way more important than any buildings.”
ZELENSKY IN LONDON: Zelensky was hoping a meeting of NATO leaders called by President Joe Biden for this weekend in Ramstein, Germany, would resolve some of his outstanding requests for more weapons and more flexibility in using them to counter Russia’s superior air power. However, the hurricanes in the United States prompted Biden to postpone his trip, and the meeting has yet to be rescheduled.
While visiting Croatia on Wednesday, Zelensky said he understood why Biden called off the meeting. “Any leader in similar circumstances would have stayed in their country,” he said, but stressed that this meeting, which involved the heads of state of NATO nations, was “particularly important.”
“We understand that a new schedule may be prepared in the near future,” he said. Meanwhile, Zelensky has planned a whirlwind trip in which he will meet individually with the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany.
Zelensky arrived at 10 Downing St. in London today for talks with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte . His next stop is Paris for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron before meeting the leaders of Germany and Italy later this week.
“It is crucial, especially ahead of winter, to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and make real progress in jointly intercepting Russian missiles and drones,” Zelensky said after meeting with Rutte in Kyiv last week. “We see that one of the main reasons for the security deficit in Ukraine’s skies — particularly near NATO’s borders and our neighboring countries — is the lack of decisions on joint efforts and defense.”
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Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie . Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre .
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HAPPENING TODAY: WAKING UP TO MILTON’S AFTERMATH: Hurricane Milton has moved off the east coast of Florida into the Atlantic Ocean after making landfall in Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm with 120-mile-per-hour winds. As it crossed over the state, dumping rain on a path that took it near Orlando and the I-4 corridor, its winds lessened to 85 miles per hour, weakening to a Category 1 storm as it exited the state. It left more than three million Floridians without power, and the damage from the storm and related tornadoes is still being assessed.
“We have the largest National Guard mobilization in the history of the state. We've also staged over 50,000 utility workers,” Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) told Fox News last night. “They've been brought from all over the country. And so as soon as this storm passes, they are going to begin power restoration.”
One of the more dramatic pictures of hurricane damage showed the lights illuminating Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Rays. The pictures revealed that the domed roof that protects the baseball field from rain had been ripped to shreds. The field and stadium appeared intact.
The extent of damage is unclear, although there has been widespread flooding. As the sun comes up search-and-rescue efforts will intensify.
TRUMP HOUSES 275 FLORIDA LINEMEN AT RESORT AHEAD OF HURRICANE MILTON’S LANDFALL
BIDEN AND NETANYAHU SPEAK: Amid simmering tensions between the U.S. and Israel over its planned retaliation against Iran, President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone for the first time in seven weeks.
“It was 30 minutes long. It was direct. It was productive,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. “They discussed a range of issues.”
Asked if the disparaging comments Biden reportedly made about Netanyahu in private affected the conversation, Jean-Pierre said she could not confirm the quotes Bob Woodward cited in his forthcoming book War, but that the two leaders “have known each other for decades, and their conversations, their relationship have always been honest and direct.”
“You have heard the president say he doesn’t agree with everything, and they have disagreements, but because they have had this decadeslong relationship, they’re able to be honest with each other,” she said. “I think what matters here is that this administration, this president’s commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad. And that will certainly continue to be the case.”
In his book, Woodward reported that last spring, as Israel stepped up its attacks in Gaza, Biden’s anger with the Israeli prime minister boiled over. “That son of a b***h, Bibi Netanyahu, he’s a bad guy. He’s a bad f***ing guy!” Biden declared privately.
At another point, Biden purportedly called Netanyahu a “f***ing lair, and said “18 out of 19 people who work for him” are liars. “He doesn’t give a damn” about Hamas, and cares “only about himself.”
Netanyahu has spoken with former President Donald Trump , who — according to Netanyahu’s office — called last week to congratulate the Israeli leader “on the intense and determined operations that Israel carried out against Hezbollah.”
BIDEN AND NETANYAHU SPEAK FOR FIRST TIME SINCE HEZBOLLAH ESCALATION
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner : Biden and Netanyahu speak for first time since Hezbollah escalation
Washington Examiner : How Afghan national charged in Election Day terror plot entered US: What we know
Washington Examiner : ‘Chaotic’ Afghanistan withdrawal to blame for Election Day plot: Condoleezza Rice
Wall Street Journal : US Frustrated by Israel’s Reluctance to Share Iran Retaliation Plans
AP : Israeli defense minister warns an attack on Iran would be ‘lethal’ and ‘surprising’
Air & Space Forces Magazine : USAF F-15s Arriving in Middle East as Israel Weighs Response to Iran Attack
Politico : Russia Gains Ground in Ukraine, but at Steep Cost
AP : Africans recruited to work in Russia say they were duped into building drones for use in Ukraine
AP : Taiwan celebrates its National Day holiday against background of Chinese threats
Task & Purpose : How Moody Air Force Base Rode Out a Direct Hurricane Hit
Air & Space Forces Magazine : SDA Lays Out Timeline for Buying Nearly 200 More Satellites in 2025
Breaking Defense : ‘The Homeland Is No Longer a Sanctuary’ Warns New TRANSCOM Boss
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Lockheed Gets New F-35 Manager with a Long History in the Program
The War Zone : Protective Nets to Shield F-22s Eyed for Airbase Swarmed by Mystery Drones
Defense One : Industry ‘Hamstrung’ by Space Force-Intel Community’s Turf War
Breaking Defense : To Attack Enemy Space Capabilities, Army Eyes Doubling Expert Cadre
Defense News : France Kicks Off Development of Wingman Drone for Rafale Fighter Jet
Air Force Times : How the Air Force Plans to Overhaul Its Recruiting Efforts
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Wandering A-29s Find Home as Edwards Test Pilot School’s First New Aircraft in Years
National Security Journal : China’s Great Submarine Sinking: What We Know and Why It Matters
National Security Journal : Israel Must Ensure Iran Pays a Price for Starting a Regional War
National Security Journal : F-15EX Eagle II: The Fighter Jet Israel Needs
National Security Journal : Eurofighter Typhoon: The Warplane That Can Do It All
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 10
8 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 GovCon International Summit: “How international partnerships, coalition warfare and emerging technologies are reshaping the defense landscape and how the U.S. can stay ahead, curve,” with Schuyler Moore , CTO at U.S. Central Command; and Michael Miller , director, Defense Security Cooperation Agency https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-govcon-international-summit/
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The changing nature of counterintelligence threats," with Michael Casey , director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center; and Suzanne Spaulding , senior adviser for homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/counterintelligence-20-fireside-conversation
11:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "The Global Risks Facing the Next President," with Senate Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA). https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/elections-2024-sen-mark-warner
6 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club book discussion: Twenty Years: Hope, War, and Betrayal of an Afghan Generation, with author Sune Engel Rasmussen , foreign correspondent, Wall Street Journal https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-book-event
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 15
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative” tenth anniversary virtual discussion: “Pentagon Priorities Amid Polycrises,” with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks ; Beverly Kirk , director of Washington Programs, Syracuse University; and Kathleen McInnis , director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative https://www.youtube.com/watch
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 17
TBA Brussels, Belgium — NATO defense ministers meet for two days at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
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