Gulf states are distancing themselves from a possible Israeli strike on Iran ’s oil facilities, lobbying the United States to stop the Jewish nation from retaliating after Tehran’s missile attack last week. If Israel does strike the oil fields, Gulf sources warn it could hand the election to former President Donald Trump .
The Middle Eastern countries are concerned that Iran or its proxies could target their own oil facilities if the conflict escalates. Several Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, have closed off airspace to Israel in an effort to stay out of any widening conflict.
"The Iranians have stated: 'If the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war,'" Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst, told Reuters.
According to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, it is a matter of when not if Israel will attack Iran.
"Our strike will be lethal, precise, and above all, surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results," he promised Wednesday.
Iran, on the other hand, has warned that Israeli retaliation will be met with vast destruction, and any nation aiding Israel is fair game to be attacked. Two Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran warned Saudi Arabia it could not guarantee the safety of its oil facilities if they assist Israel’s attack in any way.
President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on the phone for 30 minutes Wednesday to discuss holding Iran accountable for its missile strikes on Israel. Biden has not been in support of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities. However, the White House characterized the conversation as “direct and productive” while affirming Biden’s “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
Two senior Israeli officials said no decision had been made on whether to strike the oil facilities.
An October surprise?
Gulf sources warned that if Israel hits Iran’s oilfields, it could have a major impact on the 2024 presidential election. In addition, such an attack could especially hurt China, as the country is Iran’s top oil customer.
"If oil prices surge to $120 per barrel, it would harm both the U.S. economy and Harris' chances in the election,” one Gulf source said, according to the outlet. “So they (Americans) won't allow the oil war to expand.”
Betting odds are starting to shift in Trump’s favor as Republicans make major gains in swing state voter registrations. While Vice President Kamala Harris is up around two points on average nationally, Trump has taken narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Polls show voters already trust Trump over Biden and Harris to handle the economy, which is the most pressing matter of the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a majority of voters disapprove of the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of Iran.
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Trump claims the regional escalation brought on by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack wouldn’t have happened if he were president because “Iran was bankrupt ” under his leadership.
The Biden-Harris administration has declined to say whether Gulf governments had asked the U.S. to make sure Israel has a measured response to the missile strikes.
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