Inflation fell to 1.8% in September in producer index, good news for Fed

Inflation , as measured by the producer price index, fell a tenth of a percentage point to 1.8% for the year ending in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, in good news for the Federal Reserve and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The decline is also welcome news for the economy, which has been strained under the burden of inflation. On a month-to-month basis, prices did not rise.

Still, the underlying details of the report were not as encouraging. The decline in annual headline inflation was driven by a drop in energy prices, which are down 13.8% on the year. However, "core inflation," a metric that strips out food and energy prices, rose from 2.6% in August to 2.8% in September.

The report is a "mixed bag of outcomes," High Frequency Economics economists Carl Weinberg and Rubeela Farooqi wrote in a note on the PPI release.

The producer price index, which differs from the more commonly cited consumer price index, is based on prices received by various producers and sellers of goods and services. The CPI data were released on Thursday and showed that inflation fell a tenth of a percentage point to 2.4% for the year ending in September.

That is nearing the Fed’s 2% goal, although CPI inflation didn’t cool as much as expected in the latest report, which was the last one before the November elections.

Inflation, as tracked by the CPI, is now the lowest it has been since February 2021, shortly after President Joe Biden was sworn in.

The economy, specifically inflation, has been the biggest issue for voters this cycle. Republicans blame years of cumulative inflation on the Biden administration and are working to handcuff Harris to the administration’s low economic approval ratings.

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While, on balance, inflation has been falling, the labor market has recently shown a few signs of sputtering, including downward revisions to jobs reports throughout the year.

But the last jobs report ahead of the election came in relatively hot, which is good news for Harris. The economy added 254,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.