Former President Donald Trump is now the betting favorite in all but one swing state just over a week after he surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election betting odds .
According to online betting platform Polymarket, Trump is leading in Pennsylvania (+9%), Michigan (+6%), Wisconsin (+4%), Georgia (+27%), Arizona (+36%), and North Carolina (+25%). The bettors gave Harris a narrow 1% advantage over Trump in Nevada.
Trump is leading Harris in the national odds by a greater margin (+10.8%) than any candidate has led since July, further expanding on his lead over the last week. Current 2024 presidential election betting odds give Trump a 54.9% chance and Harris a 44.1% chance to win.
According to Maxim Lott and John Stossel’s Election Betting Odds tracker, Republicans are favored to win the Senate by a widening margin, while Democrats are favored to win the House . The GOP has a 56-point advantage in the Senate betting odds, up from 37 points on Oct. 4, while Democrats have a 10.5-point advantage in the House betting odds, down from the 25-point lead they boasted on Oct. 4.
Do 2024 election betting odds match the polls?
The betting odds agreed with the polls in five of the seven battleground states, as RealClearPolling shows Trump leading in Pennsylvania (+0.3%), Michigan (+0.9%), Georgia (+0.5%), Arizona (+1.1%), and North Carolina (+0.5%).
However, polls showed Trump leading in Nevada (+0.2%) while bettors are leaning toward Harris in the Silver State, and polls show Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin (+0.3%) even though bettors are leaning toward Trump in the Badger State.
If the November results match the 2024 election betting odds, Trump would win 306 electoral votes while needing just 270 to win the presidency. If the current polls reflect the actual outcome, on the other hand, he would win 302 electoral votes. Both the polls and the odds predict a Trump victory three weeks out.
In addition, a newly-inaugurated Trump would have to work with a Democratic-led House and a Republican-led Senate with a 52-48 GOP majority.
Bettors only predicted two incumbents would lose in November, giving Montana Republican Tim Sheehy an 80.5% chance to defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Ohio Republican challenger Bernie Moreno a 50.5% chance to beat incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
The Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Senate races are the only three others where bettors gave the incumbent party a notable chance to lose. Bettors gave Republican Dave McCormick a 23.4% chance to upset Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Republican Mike Rogers a 26.5% chance to beat Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Republican Eric Hovde a 23.5% chance of ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
The polls and bettors agree on every race except Ohio, as Brown is leading Moreno by 2.6% on average. Otherwise, Casey is leading McCormick by 3.2%, Slotkin is up on Rogers by 2%, Baldwin is leading Hovde by 3%, and Sheehy is leading Tester by 7%.
In the national polls, more predictive of the popular vote, Harris leads Trump by an average of 1.7%. This past week, a Harvard/Harris poll had Trump trailing by 2 points, NBC News showed a tie, ABC News/Ipsos had Harris up by 2, CBS News had Harris up by 3, and Rasmussen Reports had Trump up by 2.
The key to an ‘October surprise’
Public appearances have coincided with some of the largest shifts in election betting odds this cycle, and both candidates have major interviews lined up in the final stretch of the campaign.
Harris will go on Fox News for the first time to be interviewed Wednesday by Brett Baier in what pundits call a risky move, while Trump confirmed he would go on Joe Rogan’s podcast for the first time, despite previously slamming Rogan for supporting former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party campaign. Trump will also be holding a woman-only town hall Wednesday on Fox News.
Trump’s odds reached their all-time high on July 13, when he survived an assassination attempt at a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally, and after the July 27 debate with President Joe Biden, the president dropped in the odds by 16.6 relative points.
The former president lost 5.8 relative points to Harris after his July 31 Chicago interview with the National Association of Black Journalists, and his Sept. 10 presidential debate performance cost him 6.6%, resulting in Harris leading for 26 consecutive days.
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On Oct. 7, Harris’s 60 Minutes interview was released, and she drew criticism for not giving direct answers to critical questions and instead offering a “word salad.” Harris dropped 3.4 relative points the day of that interview, and Trump has only gained momentum since then.
Trump has led in the presidential election betting odds for nine consecutive days, which is the longest he has led since Harris took her first betting odds lead in August. If there will be any “October surprise” to swing the race at the last minute, it may coincide with a notable public appearance.
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