The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has left a huge question mark over who will pick up his unenviable position as head of the terrorist group.
Hamas has seen its top leadership almost entirely decapitated via IDF operations following the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks that killed approximately 1,200 people in 2023. Sinwar was a key architect of the Oct. 7 attack.
HAMAS LEADER YAHYA SINWAR IS DEAD: OCT. 7 MASTERMIND ‘ELIMINATED’ BY IDF
"If Sinwar is dead, I think the war in Gaza is effectively over," Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, told the Washington Examiner before Sinwar's death was confirmed.
"It doesn't mean that Hamas is completely and totally defeated because of course there are always going to be young, radicalized men in tracksuits picking up AK-47s and choosing to fight on. But the leadership of Hamas is eviscerated."
Multiple prominent leaders of the terrorist organization found protection in outside countries such as Turkey and Qatar. Following the Oct. 7 attack, many of these key figureheads — such as chairman Ismail Haniyeh, who was dramatically assassinated in Iran — have already been killed by IDF operations.
Among the surviving Hamas leaders living outside Gaza, the most likely candidate to succeed Sinwar could be Khaled Mashal, a founder of Hamas and former chairman of its political bureau.
Mashal is currently living a comfortable life under the protection of the Qatari government — spending his days alongside other Hamas political leaders at luxury hotels and villas within the emirate. His net worth is believed to be in the billions.
While geographically and materially separated from the strife in Gaza, Mashal maintains a powerful presence in ideological messaging on the conflict. Following the assassination of Haniyeh earlier this year, Mashal urged suicide bombings in retribution.
With almost the entirety of Hamas' old guard decapitated, Mashal seems to be the only choice for maintaining a connection to their past.
"You could see some relative unknown step into the void," Schanzer speculated. "It's possible. But if [Hamas] is looking for continuity, if they're looking for recognizable leadership, if they're looking to try to hold together what is left of their support structure — it's hard for me to imagine they choose anybody else."
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If selected, Mashal's residence in Qatar and proximity to the Qatari government could prove difficult — President Joe Biden designated the country as a "Major Non-NATO Ally" in early 2022.
In the wake of Israel confirming Sinwar's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called him “a mass murderer who killed thousands of Israelis and kidnapped hundreds of our citizens,” and he said, “evil took a heavy blow,” but noted “the mission ahead of us is still unfinished. He called Sinwar’s death “an important milestone in the sunset of Hamas’s rule in Gaza.”
Sinwar appears to have met his demise entirely by chance. He was killed, alongside two other Hamas terrorists on Wednesday in Rafah, though Israelis did not realize it was Sinwar until a day later.
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