Presidential historian Allan Lichtman believes the current polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris sliding against former President Donald Trump are “underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
During a Wednesday YouTube livestream , the American University professor, who has predicted Harris would beat Trump in November, suggested that reports of Democrats pulling ahead in mail-in voting in certain states bode well for them. However, Democrats already made up the majority of mail-in voters, and Republicans have reportedly increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
"The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength,” Lichtman said. “It's my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength."
Lichtman pointed to the special election to replace disgraced former House Republican George Santos in New York, noting “the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points."
Santos pled guilty to charges related to campaign fraud in August.
"Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls — they will sweep Pennsylvania,” Lichtman declared.
Where things stand three weeks out
Harris currently leads in national polling by 1.5%, but Trump has the polling lead in all seven of the swing states set to decide the 2024 election. He’s up in Pennsylvania by 0.5%, North Carolina by 1.0%, Georgia by 0.9%, Arizona by 1.1%, Michigan by 0.9%, Nevada by 0.5%, and Wisconsin by 0.1%.
If the polls do accurately predict the election outcome, Trump will win 312 electoral votes while only needing 270 to win the election. However, as experts such as Maxim Lott and John Stossel argued , election betting odds are an even better predictor of election outcomes.
Trump has a considerable lead in the 2024 election betting odds, with bettors signaling he has a 57.6% chance to win, while Harris has a 41.3% chance. Trump’s 16.3% advantage is his largest betting odds lead since July, and he has now led for 11 consecutive days. Fresh off her “ risky ” Fox News interview with Bret Baier, Harris is nearly as big a betting longs hot as Trump was on Election Day 2020.
According to Polymarket, Trump leads in all seven swing states. If betting odds reflect the outcome of the election, Trump would win 312 electoral votes in a swing state sweep.
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Lichtman’s prediction that Democratic candidates will outperform the polls this cycle comes as Republicans are out-gaining Democrats in swing state voter registration, particularly in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Swing state voter registration has spiked in 2024, and more names are being added to the rolls than the margin of victory in the last presidential election in these battleground states. With Republicans closing ground on Democrats in critical states, this may instead signify greater Republican turnout than the polls suggest.
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