Wake up with the Washington Examiner: What to know about your ballot and Trump’s bold confidence play

When the anti- abortion movement succeeded in overturning Roe v. Wade , it simultaneously achieved its 50-year goal and left the movement rudderless. Republicans immediately started to struggle with the political ramifications of the Supreme Court’s decision to send the authority to regulate abortion law back to the states.

Democrats and their abortion-rights compatriots ran up huge victories, including in states such as Ohio . Strict abortion restrictions that didn’t include exceptions for rape and incest or that outlawed the procedure inside the 15-week window turned out to be far more unpopular than expected.

This November, abortion is on the ballot in some shape or form in 10 states. It’s one of several issues voters will have a chance to weigh in on besides whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will take control of the White House.

This week, the Washington Examiner is taking a look at what some of those important, under-the-radar ballot items are going to be with our Direct Democracy series.

While Democrats and Republicans have both used “abortion” as a policy item on the trail, the single word doesn’t describe the varied plans and proposals getting bandied about. The issue set is broad, and the fights from state to state are differentiated by different requirements, restrictions, and requests, Healthcare Reporter Gabrielle Etzel wrote for us this morning.

Arizona voters are grappling with a state legislature that has already nullified a Civil War-era law that banned the procedure outright. The 15-week ban in place there overrode the nascent law that was passed before Arizona became a state.

“The abortion-rights amendment on Arizona ballots, Proposition 139 , would establish in the state constitution a ‘fundamental right to abortion’ and prohibit the state from interfering with abortion access before fetal viability — or the point at which a fetus can survive outside of the mother’s womb,” Gabrielle wrote.

Like Arizona, Florida and Missouri are considering amendments that would enshrine fundamental rights to abortion in their state constitutions.

The fates of the measures in those states appear to be on different tracks.

Florida has a six-week abortion ban in place now, and undoing it with Amendment 4 would require garnering 60% support from voters. That looks like it’s going to be too high of a bar, as the latest polling shows only 46% of voters support the amendment.

However, Missouri law only requires a simple majority of support, and “an August poll from St. Louis University found that 52% of voters would vote ‘yes’ on enshrining the abortion-rights amendment into the state constitution, meaning that the amendment could pass since all that is required is a simple majority vote,” Gabrielle wrote.

Then, there are states that have no plans to tighten abortion access at all, though voters are considering abortion-adjacent questions.

Colorado’s abortion amendment would essentially open up Medicaid dollars to go toward funding abortions in the state — a historically unpopular proposal.

And New York is attempting to push through a broader equal rights amendment that includes references to “pregnancy outcomes” and “reproductive autonomy” but doesn’t mention abortion outright.

Click here to read more about the varied abortion access fights taking place next week.

Trump is definitely not demure. He exudes brash assurance and is sure that not only does he know best but also that he has surrounded himself with the smartest, brightest, and strongest people.

Standing onstage in Las Vegas last week, the former president told a crowd that there is no doubt he is going to win and win big in the Silver State.

“We’re leading by a lot in Nevada. We’re leading by a lot in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even states that are typically never in play,” Trump boasted during a campaign stop in Las Vegas. “Big states are all in play.”

He might be right. Trump has recently overtaken Harris in Nevada after trailing her there for all of September. But his lead, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average , is only 0.7 points.

It’s a similar story in Pennsylvania , with Trump +0.5; Michigan , with Trump +0.2; and Wisconsin , with Trump +0.3.

White House Reporter Haisten Willis is up this morning with a look at the problems such a confident message could pose for a campaign that is winning nationally by just 0.1 points.

“While Trump is known for his showman personality and will always project strength, there are some indications that a sense of confidence has leaked into the Republican atmosphere,” Haisten writes. “Axios reported that Republicans are ‘shockingly confident’ about the outcome, already talking privately about policy playbooks and new jobs in January.”

“GOP members who spoke to the Washington Examiner insisted that Trump's team is fully committed behind the scenes and taking nothing for granted,” he wrote.

Messaging from Trump himself and what the people running his campaign are telling donors are divergent. The candidate is whipping up excitement at rallies by telling his supporters they have nothing to fear with him on the ticket.

Behind the scenes, the political operators are sending out a more levelheaded message.

"I don’t think the Trump campaign is underestimating Harris at all," Scott Jennings , a CNN commentator and longtime adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), told Haisten. "Based on my observations and conversations, they are all in on finishing this thing at full throttle."

Outrunning polls, like putting on a show and doing retail politics, is one of the things Trump does best.

“At this stage in 2016, he trailed Hillary Clinton by 5 points nationally in a race he would go on to win,” Haisten writes. “In 2020, Trump trailed President Joe Biden by 8 points. He outperformed his polling both times, so if that pattern holds, Trump is almost certain to win this time around.”

Click here to read more about the benefits and pitfalls of Trump’s confidence campaign.

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Harris is barnstorming Michigan, speaking at campaign events in Saginaw at 2:20 p.m., Macomb County at 5:20 p.m., and Ann Arbor at 7:15 p.m.

Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) will join Harris in Ann Arbor after campaigning in Manitowoc and Waukesha, Wisconsin.

Biden will cast his early ballot in Wilmington, Delaware, at 11 a.m. before traveling back to Washington, D.C. He will hold a virtual meeting with National Guard members to thank them for their actions in North Carolina at 3 p.m. and will speak with elected officials in states affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton at 3:15 p.m.

The president will deliver remarks at a reception celebrating Diwali at 5:30 p.m.

First lady Jill Biden and Gwen Walz are speaking at Harris-Walz campaign events in Traverse City, Michigan, at 1 p.m., Bay City, Michigan, at 4 p.m., and La Crosse, Wisconsin, at 7 p.m.

Trump will speak at the inaugural National Faith Summit in Powder Springs, Georgia, at 2 p.m. and will host a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, at 6 p.m.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is speaking at campaign events in Wausau, Wisconsin, at 3 p.m. and Racine, Wisconsin, at 6:30 p.m.