Stein takes significant lead against Robinson in NC governor’s race, new poll shows

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — It’s one of the most closely watched political showdowns in the country — the race for North Carolina’s next governor. Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein faces current Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson.

A new Cook Political Report and BSG survey, released Thursday morning, gives Stein a lead well outside the margin of error (+/- 1.83%) at 43 percent, versus 36 percent who say they will vote for Mark Robinson. Stein gains another point when voters were asked which way they lean. The attorney general jumps from a seven-point advantage to an eight-point advantage at 48 percent vs 40 percent, respectively. Cook’s polling in the month of May had the race tied.

“I think Robinson has a problem with Independent voters. We’ve seen shifts in Independent voters, we’ve seen shifts in women in college, educated women towards Stein. A lot of his ads are just video of Robinson saying things. We knew that he sort of had this history of controversial comments. We’ve seen Republicans spending and Robinson spending as they try to tell his own story about growing up in poverty, working in furniture factories and sort of a ‘pull yourself up by your bootstrap’ story,” said Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report’s senate and governors editor. “But he’s also had to go on defense on issues like his most recent ad with his wife talking about the abortion that they had before they were married. There’s just a litany of hits that Democrats have against Robinson, and Democrats have the money right now to prosecute that case against him. I think we’re seeing in this polling that it’s having an impact. I think Robinson needs to find a way to change the narrative in the race. But right now, Stein has the money to set the tone.”

Part of what’s also boosting Stein’s lead may be who is now at the top of the ticket. In the same batch of polling Vice President Kamala Harris sits at 46 percent in North Carolina, Trump sits at 44 percent, and RFK Jr. and Cornell West get four percent each.

“When I was talking with Democrats in the state about this race, voters and core Democratic voters, particularly younger voters and voters of color, would not turn out particularly. They were not enthused by Biden,” Taylor said. “They did not believe that Biden could win North Carolina or even win the presidency. And they needed those voters to come out in a very important gubernatorial race. So, I think we’re seeing those voters reengage.”

The question now is whether Kamala Harris can sustain the momentum.

“Trump has been leading in the state. I still think it’s a very competitive race,” Taylor said. “But with Democrats, particularly younger voters, voters of color more engaged in the race, if Harris is getting those, this makes it a newly competitive race. Truly, and I think Trump has to fight for those Independent voters, fight for women voters and suburban women in particular.”

Third party candidates are also showing their effect.

“There are voters that really didn’t like either candidate, so some of these voters are taking a second look at Harris as a new candidate,” said Taylor. “I do think there is a threat that Kennedy could now pull more voters from Trump, and as of now there are only two swing states where Kennedy is on the ballot, and it’s in North Carolina and Michigan. We’ve seen how close races have been in these states and in North Carolina and just by a couple of percentage points.”

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