TRACKING THE TROPICS: Milton now a Cat 4, but expected to re-strengthen

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — As of 11 a.m., Hurricane Milton is a strong Cat 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph. Milton strengthened to a powerful Cat 5 Monday afternoon with winds of 180 mph and a central pressure of 897, ranking Milton in the top 5 on the list of strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean.

Milton was still a tropical storm at 11 a.m. Monday morning with 65mph winds. Milton weakened due to an overnight eyewall replacement cycle but did strengthen a little throughout this morning. Milton is moving to the east-northeast at 9 mph and the central pressure has increased to 929mb. A hurricane warning is in effect for most of Florida’s west coast.

Milton continues to blow the forecasted strength out of the water. It is officially the strongest hurricane ever in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the year based on sustained winds, and the strongest in the Atlantic since Dorian (2019). It is expected to weaken slightly on Wednesday due to higher wind shear and dry air from a cold front before slamming into the Gulf Coast of central Florida, likely near Tampa, late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Storm surge is expected to peak in Tampa at 9-12 ft which would break records just set by Hurricane Helene.

The Carolinas have a low risk of direct tropical impacts from Milton. If the track is favoring the left side of the cone winds will be gustier with rain across the coast.

Parts of Florida will receive 8-12 inches of rain with isolated areas possibly receiving up to 20 inches. Flash flooding is likely across portions of central Florida. The threat of rain and wind will decrease the further it stays offshore. It is unlikely Milton will take a northern track (towards the Carolinas) once it crosses Florida and enters the Atlantic.

This is going to be the fifth landfall in the United States and the third in Florida this season. Milton is forecast to be a major Cat 3 at landfall. Florida was already hit by Category 1 Debby in early August and Category 4 Helene just 12 days ago. The last time three hurricanes hit Florida was in 2005. This also occurred in 2004 and 1964.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Leslie has weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and is moving to the NW at 13 mph.

Leslie will not threaten land and will gradually curve out to sea late next week.

There is another wave expected off the coast of Africa in the next couple of days. The threat of development is currently low at 20%.

A broad area of low pressure has formed near the northern Bahamas and is expected to move northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic later today. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to increase later in the week, which should limit further development.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WBTW.