5 reasons the 2024 Patriots could be better than expected

The Patriots are coming off a four-win season that cost legendary coach Bill Belichick his job.

Now, expectations are pretty darn low in Jerod Mayo’s first season running the new-look show in Foxborough.

Pro Football Focus projects New England to have an NFL-worst six wins in 2024. ESPN predicted the Patriots to have the No. 1 overall pick in next April’s draft. Meanwhile, many sportsbooks have put the team’s win total line at 4.5 victories in the 17-game slate.

The reasons for such low expectations are as many as they are obvious.

But in this mid-July lull in NFL action and time before teams’ flaws are on display even on the training camp practice fields and in preseason action, let’s flip the script on the presumptive narrative surrounding the once-great Patriots. Could the Patriots overachieve this fall? Could New England win more than the small handful of games that most are predicting? Could Mayo’s troops surpass expectations?

Sure! Crazier things have happened.

But, if the Patriots are to be better than most expect in 2024, how exactly might those optimistic results come to fruition?

Glad you asked.

1 – Change is good: The harsh reality is that Belichick’s culture and leadership had run its productive course in New England. Like chunky milk in the fridge, it was well past its expiration date and left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Last fall’s four wins were evidence of that, as were many of the decisions and results of the last four years that derailed the once-promising Mac Jones era. It was clearly time for a change. Now, Mayo is in charge. There is a new culture. A new energy. A new air. In and of itself, that may not mean much. But if that creates an environment for players and coaches to maximize their abilities and contributions to potential winning, it could mean a lot. The NFL has become a young man’s game in terms of coaching and playing. New England has now entered that world with a young coach and a roster that’s growing younger. Maybe, just maybe, that’s the right recipe to pull the Patriots out of their post-dynasty tailspin of a year ago. Maybe.

2 – Drake Maye: There is almost no scenario in which the Patriots overachieve this fall that doesn’t include the No. 3 overall pick Maye proving himself ready for NFL action sooner rather than later. Many hope the Patriots are following the Houston model for turnaround and that obviously included C.J. Stroud as a rookie revelation for the Texans. Maye will need to be the same if New England is to strive for success and be in competition for a playoff spot. Maye has all the physical tools. He was the chosen one for Eliot Wolf and Co. He has been relatively impressive in the early stages of his spring and summer work in Foxborough. If he can continue to trend in a positive direction, if he can make more eye-opening plays than head-slapping mistakes as a rookie, it will give the Patriots a chance to open some eyes as a team along the way.

3 – The defense: New England has been better on the defensive side of the ball for a handful of years now. The team reinvested in that unit with big contracts for guys like Kyle Dugger and Christian Barmore. It will get 2023 top pick Christian Gonzalez back from injury, the second-year stud looking to build off an impressive rookie September. Matthew Judon should be back as well, the Pro Bowl pass rusher healthy after missing most of last season to injury. There is also relative continuity on the coaching staff. While Belichick – and his son, playcaller Steve Belichick – is gone, Mayo remains as does DeMarcus Covington, promoted to coordinator and playcaller. New England allowed fewer than 21 points in seven games a year ago, including 10 or less in four games. It won just two of those seven games. While the schedule and challenges of opposing QBs/offenses will be greater this fall, if the defense can play up to or beyond some of its past performances and higher-end expectations it will absolutely give the team a chance to win football games.

4 – Youth movement: There are a lot of young players on the Wolf-assembled roster that will be given the chance to play huge roles for the Patriots. Certainly Gonzalez is atop that list as the clear No. 1 cornerback and presumed defensive stalwart. But there are others on both sides of the ball. Keion White had a strong offseason and could be poised for an impactful Year 2 Jump. Rookie receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker will be competing for key roles and reps right out of the gates. DeMario Douglas may just be the next great slot receiver if he can stay healthy in his second season. Young players will be asked to compete and step up in the pass rush, secondary, offensive line and playmaking. Opportunity is knocking.

5 – Return on investment: Wolf took care of many developing young veteran players financially this offseason as part of his Packer Way plan. Mike Onwenu, Dugger, Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson all cashed in to re-sign with the Patriots for the primes of their NFL careers. Clearly the hope is that those guys are going to be paid for what they do moving forward, the potential for all of them to take their production to new heights. If they do that, it will help lift the entire team, impacting all phases of the game. Maybe Stevenson will look like Saquon Barkley. Maybe Barmore will put forth more Chris Jones’ type plays. Maybe Dugger will become a more consistent playmaking force in the back end to reach his Pro Bowl potential. Maybe Onwenu will be the foundational piece that an offensive line facing many questions can be productively built around. The Patriots showed the money to a number of their core of young players this spring. Now it’s time for those players to bring a return on that significant investment. The potential is there. The Celtics gave Jaylen Brown a massive contract last summer and watched him play the best basketball of his career on the way to a title, proving his worth to everyone other than USA Basketball. New England should hope for half as much from its newly-rich re-signings.