Kentucky data expert discusses the impact of the state’s beloved 120 counties

At this year’s Kentucky State Fair, representatives of more than 100 counties are making their pitch to fairgoers on why they should pay a visit to their communities.

Catching sight of them all is no easy feat: Kentucky has the third-most counties in the U.S., behind only Texas and Georgia — fourth if counting Virginia’s independent cities .

That large number of counties leads to smaller populations in each, and it can be tricky for data analysis. That’s according to Matt Ruther, director of the Kentucky State Data Center, which is part of the University of Louisville.

The agency is affiliated with the U.S. Census Bureau and uses its data to present findings for local and statewide groups. Those include Kentucky’s Legislative Research Commission and the state’s 15 Area Development Districts, like KIPDA , which handles Louisville and surrounding counties.

Ruther spoke with LPM News’ Jacob Munoz about how the 120 counties tie into his work. This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

I want to talk about a report that the agency put out in 2022 , which found that while Kentucky is expected to grow by more than 6% by 2050, a majority of counties in Kentucky will actually lose population. Can you tell me about the takeaways from that report?

Already, many of our counties are shedding people. Not quite half, but almost half. And this is primarily related to jobs. People tend to move from rural areas, or even small cities, to larger areas [where] there [are] more opportunities. So we're seeing growth in, you know, the big cities: Lexington, Louisville, Bowling Green, [and] especially northern Kentucky, for Cincinnati. And a lot of that growth is at the expense of other counties within the state. So the smaller counties, usually.

And when we’re thinking about smaller counties, are we thinking about the far east parts of the state? The western parts?

The far east parts, some of the western pieces. But there [are] also counties scattered about like Trimble County, which is very close to us, is losing population.

Is that heavily accounted for, then, by in-state migration? Or is it a matter of, also, people leaving the state, or people from other states coming into those larger metro regions?

It's quite complicated. We don't actually know where anyone is coming from in the report that you're referencing. But other sources suggest that a lot of the growth that the cities are seeing is coming from the more rural areas. They're also seeing some out-migration to suburban areas. And then, of course, there's international migration that is primarily hitting Louisville and Lexington.

Other than that 2022 report, does the data center at all look at that in-state migration and those changing patterns of where people locate?

Occasionally the Census Bureau will put out reports on interstate migration, county-to-county migration. But it’s very — you're talking, like, 3,100 counties in the U.S. — it's very complicated to synthesize what you're looking at.

I did a report for SOAR [Shaping Our Appalachian Region], which is based down in the southeast, and we looked at interstate migration: basically from ADD to ADD, from Area Development District to Area Development District, because you get sort of bigger numbers then. And there's a tremendous amount of movement between different ADDs. Maybe not several thousand, [but] several hundred people moving from, say, Hazard to Pikeville, and there'll be several hundred people moving from Pikeville to Hazard. Overall there's no change, but there's a lot of actual mobility. So you miss those things when you are looking at the net number.

Does the large number of counties that Kentucky has, at 120, ever present any challenges to you in your presentation or the work that you do?

Going back to that report that you cited, you know, when we look at some of these smaller counties — Robertson County is like 2,100 people — it's really hard to do projections on that, because you don't have a whole lot of data to work with. So there may be 15 deaths in the county one year and five the next year, and so you have very unstable rates to work with. And that can present a problem. It's not really related to the number [of counties], but just sort of the size of them.

Back in 2018, a state lawmaker had proposed a bill that would consolidate counties and reduce their total count by more than half, and this was promoted as a way to cut state costs. Have you ever been approached by state lawmakers or other groups about the effects of having so many counties?

No, just media. It's extremely unlikely that anything like that would ever transpire.

And why do you think that is? Why do you think it's so unlikely?

County identity is very strong in the state. I don't think it would sit well locally.

Our counties are, like, the second-smallest in the country after Rhode Island, which is tiny. You know, it made sense to me that consolidation would seem to make sense. But as I talk to more people and see how tight these bonds are, I evolved on whether I think that's a good idea. I think there are probably other ways to save money that may not be a full county dissolution.