Helene now predicted to be even stronger at landfall. Here’s the latest forecast.
By Brantly Keiek,
24 days ago
NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — Helene continues to intensify and is expected to turn northward on Wednesday.
The forecast track remains largely unchanged, with Helene expected to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf, eventually approaching the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Over the next few days, Helene will be moving through an environment with low vertical wind shear, abundant moisture, and warm waters with high oceanic heat content. As a result, significant strengthening is expected before landfall.
The NHC intensity forecast indicates steady to rapid intensification of 30 mph in the next 24 hours and 35 mph in the 24 to 48 hour period.
Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and reach major hurricane strength (Cat 3+) in the eastern Gulf. The latest NHC forecast predicts the storm could have sustained winds up to 120 mph with gusts up to 150 mph. Some models predict it will be even stronger.
Helene’s growing size is also a concern, meaning significant impacts such as storm surge, winds, and rainfall will extend far from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly to the east.
Hurricane-force winds are likely along parts of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. All preparations to safeguard life and property should be completed by early Thursday, as tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the area later that day.
The storm’s tropical-storm-force wind field is expected to be 400 miles wide or larger, covering most of the state of Florida. Helene’s fast forward speed upon landfall will also likely push strong winds further inland across Georgia.
Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the entire west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend, with the highest surge levels of 10-15 feet anticipated along the Big Bend. Residents in these areas should follow evacuation orders and advice from local authorities.
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