Hurricane Helene now forecast to be Category 4 at landfall, wind gusts up to 160 mph possible
By Brantly Keiek,
24 days ago
NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — The National Hurricane Center is now predicting Hurricane Helene will be a Category 4 storm at landfall on Thursday with wind gusts up to 160 miles per hour.
Hurricane Helene’s eye is starting to become visible on satellite imagery, as of Wednesday afternoon. With the storm’s improved structure, Helene’s current intensity has increased to 85 mph.
Helene has turned northward, moving at 9 mph, and is expected to accelerate toward the north or north-northeast as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening.
Helene Predicted to be Category 4 Hurricane at Landfall
The environment is highly favorable for significant strengthening as Helene moves across the Gulf. The forecast track moves along the Loop Current over the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures hover around 86°F. Combined with low vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence, Helene is primed for rapid intensification.
Some forecast models indicate a 90% chance of a 40 mph increase in intensity over the next 24 hours.
The NHC now predicts Helene will reach Category 4 status within 24 hours with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts up to 160 mph. The NHC notes that additional strengthening is also possible before landfall Thursday evening.
Widespread Impacts Across Southeast U.S.
Helene is forecast to be a large, major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far beyond the center, especially on the east side.
Due to its fast forward speed, strong winds will penetrate far inland across parts of the southeastern U.S., with gusts reaching higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. The official forecast also includes a higher-than-normal gust factor once Helene is inland.
Storm Surge
Catastrophic, life-threatening storm surge is expected along parts of the Florida Big Bend, with inundation levels reaching up to 20 feet above ground level, accompanied by destructive waves.
Life-threatening storm surge is also a danger along the remainder of the Florida west coast. Residents should follow the guidance of local officials and evacuate if instructed.
Hurricane-force Winds
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are anticipated within Helene’s eyewall as it makes landfall late Thursday in the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive.
Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will extend well inland over northern Florida and southern Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also expected in northern Georgia and the Carolinas, especially over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Flash Flooding and Landslides
Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding, including landslides, is expected across parts of the southern Appalachians through Friday.
Widespread flash and urban flooding is likely in northern Florida and the Southeast, with considerable to catastrophic flooding possible. River flooding, including isolated major flooding, is also likely.
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