Sneaky Joe: All eyes on Coleman

Sunday, 1 o'clock at Highmark Stadium is a first in a lot of different ways. First game of the 2024 season. First game since the Stefon Diggs trade. First game with Bobby Babich as the defensive play caller

But above all else, it's the first NFL game for 2nd round rookie Keon Coleman. There will be a lot of attention on Coleman immediately due to the position he plays, the changeover at that position as a whole, his draft stock, and the trade the Bills made at the draft.

Coleman has the combination of big shoes to fill and a lot to prove in his game. I have three huge questions about Coleman that I'd like to see him answer in game one and season one.

Are you actually great at contested catches?

This is the skill you'd hope Coleman is able to provide right away. He is a human highlight reel. Type in 'Keon Coleman' on Youtube and a majority of the plays you're going to see are of him high pointing the ball above a defender.

Coleman flashed the ability to do this multiple times at training camp, however, really his only opportunity to show this in the preseason was on a target from Mitch Trubisky to the end-zone, that even Coleman admitted later is a ball he absolutely has to bring in.

Coleman has the reputation of Moss'ing people in college, but the numbers actually don't back that up.

Last year Coleman did rank second in the NCAA in contested targets, but ranked 98th out of 120 qualifying receivers in contested catch percentage. Coleman only caught 33.3% of his contested targets.

Let's see if Coleman is able to drastically improve that number in the NFL.

Can you get open against NFL cornerbacks?

Coleman's biggest red flag coming out of college is his ability to separate. Shaking a corner loose at the line of scrimmage and getting open when being manned up is not his strong suit... yet. It's the type of thing I'm sure his positional coaches with the Bills have been working on with him since the day he put on a helmet.

As a route runner, Coleman is a project.

Matt Harmon of ReceptionPerception.com charts Coleman as having a poor win rate in almost every route.

His rawness as a route runner doesn't mean he can never improve in the coming years. I wouldn't put it past him to show up next year or the year after and be twice the technician that he is now, but it will be tough for him to have drastically improved in a rookie offseason that's busy from February-on.

If you break down the numbers further, you do find one strong suit of Coleman getting open. His ability against zone-coverage.

At Florida State, Coleman's success rate versus man-coverage was in the 20th percentile, his success rate versus press-coverage was in the 11th percentile, but his success rate versus zone-coverage was in the 59th percentile.

It's at least a foundation for Coleman to build on.

Can you make plays with the ball in your hands?

Coleman was a punt returner at Florida State because of his ability to make people miss. He can cut like very few receivers his size.

Coleman averaged 12.0 yards per punt return on 25 returns last year. Out of more than 200 returners in college last year, PFF graded Coleman as the 19th best returner and only three punt returners with more than 10 returns had a better average.

The Bills will not be using Coleman as a returner, but would like to see those skills on display on offense. Maybe we've underestimated how important the screen game or jet-sweeps could be to Coleman's game.

In Yards After Catch per reception, Coleman ranked 43rd out of 112 receivers in college football last year.

Elusiveness is statistically Coleman's most proven skill. I would guess the Bills will design plays to use it.

Are you fast?

I legitimately have no idea if Keon Coleman is fast. At the combine he put up the rare combination of having the slowest 40 time, but the fastest GPS speed on the gauntlet drill. Which is more closer to reality? I have no clue.

The Bills need to find more explosive plays from last season. That was one of the biggest issues with the offense. Will Coleman help that? Your guess is as good as mine.

Keon Coleman has a lot to prove. There have been plenty of second round wide receivers that have come into the NFL with just as many questions and answered them.

That will be the task. Coleman doesn't have to answer every question. If he answers even just two of them, that will likely be all it takes for him to be a legitimate weapon in the Buffalo Bills offense for years to come.