The NFL has a scoring problem, which is hard to believe given the perception that many of the rules changes in recent years favor the offense. Fans want to see high-scoring shootouts and a medley of creative touchdown celebrations on Sundays, but the same clichés that haunt those of us who are chronically online are wreaking havoc on professional football. This is going to be a bit of a winding journey to articulate my take on this in full. Just trust that it'll tie back to Tom Brady's belief that NFL offenses are dumbed down to help young quarterbacks get on the field sooner. ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. went on
Get Up today to say that the NFL should ban certain coverages in order to allow for more points — punishing savvy defenses who've adjusted in an era where the deck is purposely stacked against them. https://twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/1836750824900268460 A lot of rules change-ups have catered to player safety at the expense of defenses. That's noble and best for everyone on the field. Even with the new weird kickoff rules to improve offensive field position and the harsh penalties for unnecessary roughness, pass interference, and so on, defenses are
still putting the clamps on. https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1836713955579850923 But
are the coverages defensive coordinators dial up the main reason why we're seeing a general decline in passing game production? I'd say no. Data shows that single-high safety coverages (Cover 1 and Cover 3) still account for approximately 55% of all called coverages across the NFL. https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice/status/1836757354962178259 https://twitter.com/HaydenWinks/status/1836402294151139611 The factors Nate Tice outlines — poor o-line play, depth, and coaching — are part of my argument as to why Tom Brady's contention that
NFL offenses have been "dumbed down " to get rookies on the field sooner is fully vindicated by Kiper's take.
"I think it’s just a tragedy that we’re forcing these rookies to play early, but the reality is, the only reason why they are is because we dumbed the game down which has allowed them to play. It used to be thought of at a higher level. We used to spend hours and hours in the offseason and in training camp trying to be a little bit better the next year. But I think what happens is it discourages the coaches from going to deep levels because they realize the players don’t have the opportunity to go to a deep level so they’re just going to teach them where they’re at." https://twitter.com/stephenasmith/status/1825679304883073138 Now we're going to tie it all together and punch up at the NFL owners for fostering this environment. The perception about poor offensive line play only goes so far. The New Orleans Saints had one of the NFL's worst offensive lines last season. They added one new piece, first-round left tackle Taliese Fuaga, moved Trevor Penning from right to left tackle, and are suddenly an elite unit. Part of that is the coaching and Shanahan-style system brought in by new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who's skyrocketed up the list of future head coach candidates. There's always a dilemma for coaches about tailoring their system to their current players' strengths, or shoehorning them into their stringent philosophies. This is why so many former assistants during the Bill Belichick-Brady Patriots dynasty have failed elsewhere. They don't have the many years of continuity Brady cultivated in that system, nor the stability of a generational defensive genius in Belichick scheming to stop the opposition. It was a perfect marriage, aided by the fact that Brady took frequent pay cuts when he could've demanded to be highest-paid quarterback in football. That brings us to the out-of-control QB market. Quarterbacks are getting these massive paydays, and while the salary keeps rising at a healthy rate, huge QB cap figures prevent teams from cultivating roster depth, and limit the resources that can be spent elsewhere. You either have to hit on a bunch of young talent in the draft, or really knock it out of the park in free agency without too much exorbitant overspending. Quite the needle to thread. I know Jim Harbaugh is a "new" coach for the Chargers, but he's won immediately at every single coaching stop (college or NFL) by asking
less of his QB and investing in, you guessed it, the offensive line. Like No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt. https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1836087372481458216 https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1835747983620444643 Because NFL revenue continues to explode, team owners are more willing to hand out big-money guaranteed contracts to lock in superstar players/QBs, and less patient with head coaches. In a five-year period through the end of 2022, teams spent
$800 million on fired head coaches and GMs. Firing a coach or GM and paying the rest of their contracts is like pocket change for these owners — even the least-liquid ones like Mark Davis of the Raiders. Between Jon Gruden, Josh McDaniels and Antonio Pierce, Davis is paying two men
not to coach the Raiders for multiple years while paying his current head coach. LOL. So thanks to this immediate-gratification environment, where the coaching carousel is sped up, owners want to see their highly-drafted QB on the field as soon as possible — circumstances around them be damned. That's how you get a No. 1 overall pick like
Bryce Young going 2-16 as a starter before getting benched . Panthers owner David Tepper's wealth is only eclipsed by the Walmart heirs in Denver. That's how you get the sixth-drafted QB of this year, Bo Nix, thrust into duty as the Broncos' nine-figure head coach Sean Payton gives him a trial by fire with 39-word play calls. Payton had his most success with Drew Brees, who got cast off from the Chargers after he wasn't deemed good enough. If Payton's hard coaching and belief in Nix is misplaced, the Broncos can fire him and pay out his contract without batting an eye. Alas, this would obviously sabotage Nix's career and lead to yet another coaching staff/personnel overhaul. It'd probably set Denver back even further. Many of the teams who've started 2-0 this season have QBs who didn't break the bank at the top of the market. Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Derek Carr and Sam Darnold are just some who spring to mind. And circling back to the Saints, look what Carr did against a two-high safety look this past weekend: https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1836783530270978443 That throw shouldn't be there against a traditional Cover 2 look, but Carr has seen so much and been in so many different systems that he beat the coverage with an advanced read only a trained veteran could see. Even in the midst of the Chiefs' ongoing dynasty,
Patrick Mahomes only averages the 12th-highest annual salary . He's enjoyed continuity since he began his NFL career in Andy Reid's system. Some of Mahomes' pay cut has gone to keeping defensive stars like Chris Jones and allowed Kansas City to invest heavily in the offensive line. It's infinitely easier to install an intricate defensive system than it is to pull that off on offense. For the latter, you need years of continuity like Payton had with Brees in New Orleans. Like Reid has with Mahomes now. Or you need a QB who
really knows what the hell he's doing and has banked a ton of reps. Most of these guys either had time to sit and learn behind a seasoned veteran, or were granted patience by an organization to get through some growing pains on the field. Bottom line is, I think we'll see a trend of rookie QBs sitting early, a movement back toward talented/nomad bargain QBs, and more run-heavy offenses in the meantime to combat the proliferation of two-high safety coverages. Because most dumbed-down offenses and inexperienced QBs can't take advantage of them. Patience will be rewarded in most cases for NFL owners if they can just hold the line. The ease of firing coaches and GMs only creates chaos, and instability. It often leads to either panic-overpaying a QB, or overdrafting a QB and throwing him to the wolves too soon. Near-instant stars like CJ Stroud are the exception, not the rule. Impatience also leads to GMs turning over the roster to get "their guys" in place, and coaches facing more pressure to perhaps pursue quicker fixes at the expense of long-term, sustainable winning. It sure felt like Drake Maye got drafted to the worst situation among all the top QBs when New England picked him up. All of a sudden, it feels like the Patriots are more of a forward-looking, adaptable organization than I could've imagined so early in the post-Belichick era. https://twitter.com/SamMonsonNFL/status/1836119056488776116 Starting journeyman Jacoby Brissett doesn't scream, "We're in it to win it this year!" And yet, the Patriots are an overtime away from being 2-0 entering
Thursday Night Football against a shaky Jets team who's gone all-in on a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers off a torn Achilles. Ya see what I'm getting at here? Two-high coverages are beatable. Just get a smart QB who doesn't break the bank, can exploit those coverages, and capitalize on big plays when they're there. If QBs can't high-low a Cover 2 corner on a half-field two-man concept, or doesn't have the wherewithal/arm strength to beat Cover 4/Quarters with an alert to the deep post, that's on them! So yeah, the dumbing-down of offenses and exotic defenses suffocating them isn't going anywhere any time soon until philosophies about team-building and quarterback development radically change. Whatever your reservations about Tom Brady are as a broadcaster, he definitely still knows ball and what it takes to win.
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