Wilsonville has capacity to meet future housing needs but residents are cost-burdened, analysis shows

While Wilsonville has the capacity to meet forecasted housing needs, according to a recent draft of the city government’s housing analysis, many households face a significant housing cost burden.

The draft housing analysis, delivered in a joint work session between the Wilsonville City Council and Planning Commission on Monday, July 15, is part of the city’s Housing our Future project. As required by the state, the project will analyze Wilsonville’s housing need and capacity and then determine policies necessary to meet those needs.

Beth Goodman, senior policy advisor with ECOnorthwest and a consultant on the project, said at the work session the project is still in early stages and policies and strategies have yet to be determined.

Wilsonville’s housing capacity

Based on buildable land in Wilsonville, anticipated housing growth and demographics, the analysis found a need for a variety of housing types for a range of incomes over the next 20 years.

Wilsonville has the capacity for 3,634 new dwellings, with 2,767 accounted for in the Frog Pond East and South Master Plan, along with housing designated within the Town Center Plan. There is capacity for 876 new dwellings outside of those areas. To meet forecasted growth by 2045, Wilsonville will need 2,815 new housing units or an average of 141 new units per year.

The city also has entitled units, which refers to projects that don’t yet have building permits but have been reviewed and approved by the Development Review Board. These units include 114 multifamily housing for Town Center, 143 multifamily units,11 live-work units in Villebois Village Center and 121 affordable multifamily units in the Transit-Oriented Development project at the Wilsonville Transit Center.

The 819 units making the difference between the forecasted need and Wilsonville’s capacity are considered “surplus.” If the planned units in Town Center are not built, Goodman said that number would be added into the surplus category.

Near the end of the work session, Mayor Julie Fitzgerald commented on the buildable land addressed in the report during a conversation on housing density.

“We’re talking about land that has yet to be developed. And as I understand the housing needs analysis and the buildable lands, is, even if we look at the lower numbers of projections, do we have enough land to do this in the thoughtful planning, type of building that Wilsonville is known for,” Fitzgerald said.

Many Wilsonville residents are cost burdened

The analysis found that the vast minority of those who work in Wilsonville live in the city. Of Wilsonvilles 20,400 workers, 18,602 commute to Wilsonville. With this data, Goodman said Wilsonville needs to have housing options affordable to varying wage earners.

Near the end of the work session Wilsonville Mayor Julie Fitzgerald echoed the need for housing affordable for workers. She said she spoke with the owner of a Wilsonville retirement home who is struggling to find workers because they are unable to afford to live in Wilsonville.

The median home sale price in Wilsonville is $585,000, with prices increasing 72%, or $245,000, between 2014 and 2024, according to the presentation. The average rent was $1,733 in 2023 and increased by 58%, $636, between 2013 and 2023. During these time periods, wages increased by 29%.

The housing analysis shows that 38% of Wilsonville residents are cost burdened, and half of that number is severely cost burdened. A household qualifies as cost burdened if 30% or more of income is spent on housing, and it is severely cost burdened if 50% or more of income is spent on housing.

Combining cost burdened and severely cost burdened households, 55% of renters are cost burdened compared to 23% of those who own their residence.

Wilsonville shows the highest percentage of cost burden compared to nearby cities, with Oregon City being the closest to Wilsonville with 33% cost burdened and 13% of that number severely cost burdened. Wilsonville’s cost burdened percentage is above the percentages for Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas Counties, the Portland region as a whole and the state, according to the document.

The document noted that Wilsonville’s larger percentage of renter households may factor into the high rate of cost burden, because renters are more likely to struggle to afford their housing. In Wilsonville, 51% of households are homeowners, compared to 60% in the Portland region.

Goodman said she does not see this number as a failure on the city government’s part and said the city is probably “succeeding a little bit better” at being “a little more” affordable. She noted that Wilsonville is at the edge of the Portland region, and has more people who have been forced there due to the cost of housing they can afford.

“I don’t take this as a criticism for Wilsonville. I take this as part of the reality of being in a regional market,” Goodman said.

The presentation showed that 24% of residents have 30-60% of the median family income for Clackamas County, 11% have 60-80% of the median family income, 22% have 80-120% of the median family income and 25% have 120% of the median family income.

Goodman said less than a quarter of Wilsonville residents can afford new homes near the median sales price. A household would need an income of $180,000, or 154% of the median family income, to be able to afford the median sales price of $585,000.

She said middle housing types, like townhomes and duplexes, may be affordable to those making between 80% and 120% of the median family income.

Future and existing housing mix

As of 2021, Wilsonville has 43% single-unit detached homes and 42% multi-unit buildings with five or more units. The remaining 15% of housing is divided between townhomes and duplexes, triplexes or quadplexes. While the presentation shows Wilsonville has a higher number of multi-unit buildings, compared to single-family homes, than the Portland area overall, Goodman said this spread is comparable to other cities in the region.

Since 2013, Wilsonville has issued 2,217 building permits at an average of 222 per year. Of those permits, 73%, or 1,615, were single family detached houses, 17%, or 375, were townhouses and 10%, or 227, were multifamily.

A graph shows the number of building permits peaking in 2015 at 379, of which 337 were single family units. The number of building permits steadily decreased through 2020, with bumps in 2021 and 2023.

According to the analysis document, a mix of 45%, or 1,267, new single-family detached homes, 15%, or 422, new townhouses, 35%, or 985, new multi-family housing, and 5%, or 141, new duplexes, triplexes and quadplexes is expected.

Compared to the forecast in a 2014 report and actual building permits issued since 2013, the expected mix shows a decrease in single family detached homes and increase in townhomes. The number of townhomes is expected to increase as detached homes become less affordable, the document says.

The number of homeowners versus renters is split 50/50, which Goodman said has not changed significantly since the 2000s. For renters, 80% live in multi-unit housing and 20% live in the other types of housing.

Goodman said state regulations require the city to plan for at least 50% of new housing to be either multi-family units or attached housing. She said Wilsonville would need a good reason to not follow that requirement and that she would be “hard-pressed” to find good reasons for the city to go that route.

With about 30% of forecasted new multi-family housing forecast being accounted for in the Villebois and Transit-Oriented Development projects, Goodman said for this housing analysis the city will be on track to meet forecasted growth for multifamily units if those projects are built . However, she said Wilsonville may run into problems remaining on track for forecasted growth in the next housing if no new housing is built in Town Center. She said the next housing needs analysis will occur in six years.

The Town Center Plan, enacted in 2019, envisions a more walkable Town Center with green spaces, shopping and restaurants. New housing is included in the plan. In the May 21 election, voters narrowly rejected using urban renewal to help fund projects for the plan. Urban renewal, or tax increment financing, reinvests property tax growth within a defined district back in to the district

Wilsonville demographics

According to the presentation, Wilsonville has more young people than the Portland region.

Based on census data between 2017 and 2021, the analysis said 33% of Wilsonville residents are between 20 and 39 years old, 25% are 40-59 years old and 20% are over 60 years old. Goodman noted in the presentation that the number of senior residents is growing.

In comparison, the Portland region has 30% of the population between 20 and 39 years old, 27% between 40 and 59 years old, and 21% over 60 years old.

According to the presentation and housing analysis documents, the younger population has many renters who will look for affordable homes as they age.

Councilor Katie Dunwell spoke on the importance of bringing in young people to Wilsonville, and having housing options affordable for that population.

“If I were to take what I think would be a model city, it would be a city that has young people in it. Individuals who have chosen to live here, they’re early in their careers, they’re in the earlier part of their earning potential, and they often aspire to eventually become homeowners,” Dunwell said.

Per a comment from Councilor Joann Linville, Goodman said those working on the housing analysis will determine the number of college-aged people, those aged 18 to 24 years old. Councilor Caroline Berry asked if younger people are coming to Wilsonville because of family, work or school opportunity, to which Goodman said there is no data on the reasons why certain people move to Wilsonville but believes it is a combination of Berry’s suggestions.

In the presentation, Goodman said Wilsonville has a growing Latine population, at 13% of residents compared to 12% in 2010 (growing by 1,073 people). She said the Latine population is younger on average, and needs larger housing that is affordable and accommodating to families or multi-generational households.

City councilors respond

Although Linville said she appreciates that the city has mandates it is required to meet, she said she does not believe rental housing is the solution to creating affordable housing.

“We assume that because it’s rental that (people) can afford living there, but clearly they can’t, when over half of them are cost burdened,” Linville said, adding she understands the city will have to identify what it will do. “Until we come up with some other strategies, I cannot now and I will not, probably, in the future, approve a strategy where 35% is rental housing.”

Goodman clarified that work on policy and strategies has not been completed. Dunwell added that she agrees with Linville, and wants to see what strategies can be found to help with affordable housing.

After another comment from Linville, Goodman said that this report does not propose increased density. It assumes development at the densities the city currently allows or plans for in areas with master plans, she said.

Senior planner Kimberly Rybold said the housing analysis is not a strategy in itself, but a tool to understand how the city has been planning and if that planning is adequate to meet future housing needs.

“It’s about understanding the spectrum of needs, and whether or not we have the land to accommodate that spectrum of needs, looking at the plans and policies that we’ve already adopted in the city,” Rybold said.