Wisconsin State Capitol (Wisconsin Examiner photo)
With just over 10 weeks until the November general election, Wisconsin Democrats say they’re going on offense to seize the opportunity new legislative maps have presented and win seats in the state Senate and Assembly. Republicans at the same time are attempting to defend their majorities.
“We have fair maps. We have our candidates. The primaries are over, and it is all systems go,” Chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party Ben Wikler said at a press conference last week. “For so long, we’ve been on defense. Now, we’re on offense. For so long, the best we can hope for was to be able to sustain the governor’s veto to prevent bad things from happening. Now, we can work to make good things happen.”
Melissa Baldauff, a former top aide to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and a consultant with GPS Impact, and Scott Jensen, former Republican Wisconsin Assembly Speaker, analyzed the upcoming state legislative races and the potential gains and losses for each party during a panel hosted by WisPolitics this week.
Baldauff said the recent boost in enthusiasm for Democrats spurred by President Joe Biden stepping out of the presidential election and Vice President Kamala Harris replacing him at the top of the Democratic ticket could bode well for the state legislative races.
“That enthusiasm trickles down. When people are excited to get out and vote on the top of the ticket, they’re going to learn about the candidates down ballot,” Baldauff said.
Jensen said Republicans are expecting to lose some seats this cycle, but that Republicans in the state Senate and Assembly have often outperformed the top of the ticket and they have the benefit of many incumbents in competitive races.
Seven sitting legislators lost their bid for reelection — they all faced colleagues also running for reelection. Other sitting legislators, Republican and Democrats alike, won their primaries against newcomers.
Four competitive seats to watch
Democrats have candidates running in all 16 Senate seats up for election this year, aiming to win some additional seats and laying the groundwork to flip the Senate in a future cycle.
Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein said last week that they are excited to compete for every seat in play this year, but that “this is just the beginning of our fight.”
“It’s not going to be completed until 2026 when every single legislative seat actually gets to have fair maps and be contested under those fair maps,” Hesselbein said.
The 8th Senate district race will likely be one of the most competitive of the cycle, Baldauff and Jensen said.
The district runs north of Milwaukee and includes Whitefish Bay, Mequon, Menomonee Falls, Germantown, Port Washington, Cedarburg and Grafton. According to a Marquette Law School analysis, the district has a 53% Republican lean.
Sen. Duey Stroebel (R-Saukville), who has served in the Senate since 2015, faces a challenge from Jodi Habush Sinykin, an environmental advocate. Habush Sinykin ran an unsuccessful campaign for the 8th Senate district in a special election against Sen. Dan Knodl (R-Germantown) last year. She ran a close race, coming within 2 percentage points of winning, in the district that under the old maps leaned more Republican.
Baldauff said the district is representative of the changes in Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — or WOW — counties, where Republican support has been slipping in recent elections. She said that reflects concerns, especially from suburban women, about choice in health care and economic issues.
“Women are talking with one another [and] when they're talking with their partners, with their families, they are really looking to which party has solutions for us… when it comes to paid parental leave, when it comes to policies that are going to help their families, help them be able to afford to buy a home, be able to be able to maybe afford to go on a vacation with their family,” Baldauff said.
“We are seeing things changing in some of those suburban areas outside of Milwaukee, and that's why we're seeing a candidate like Jodi be able to be successful in an area like that and be able to kind change what a race might look like in that area,” Baldauff said. She said she would “imagine that this is going to be an expensive legislative race,” and one where “there will be a lot of communication to voters.”
Jensen said Republicans are “absolutely” fearful of losing the seat, and it will be a “close fight.”
“It's one the Republicans have to hang on to… You have to have that one in order to maintain the majority in the long run,” Jensen said. “The Democrats understand that they need to find a way to take away a couple of seats here from Republicans in this cycle, so that in the ‘26 cycle, they can get the majority, and that this seat is the first one on their list that they need to take away from the Republicans.”
Jensen said, however, that Stroebel has been “working the doors very hard day after day after day.”
Another competitive Senate race to watch is the 14th Senate district, where Sen. Joan Ballweg (R-Markesan), who was first elected to the Senate in 2018, is running for reelection against Democrat Sarah Keyeski, a rural mental health provider from Lodi.
“[Ballweg is] gonna have a difficult battle there. She's gonna have to find a way to get as many votes as possible,” Jensen said. However, he said that he thinks that Keyeski is a “weak candidate” and that could be Ballweg’s “saving grace.”
“Keyeski, who is from Lodi, is not up to this job. This is one of those things where her positions are so far to the left, it works in Dane County, but it is not going to work in the other parts of the district,” Jensen said.
Baldauff disagreed, saying that Democrats have strong candidates.
Jensen said that the 14th and the 8th are two must-win districts for Republicans, and he thinks it’s likely Republicans could lose the top two other districts that Democrats are seeking to win.
Democrat Kristin Alfheim, a member of the Appleton Common Council, will face Republican Anthony Phillips, a Fox Valley cancer physician, in the race for the 18th district. Democrat Jamie Wall, a business consultant, will face Republican Jim Rafter, Allouez village president, in the race for the 30th district, which covers Green Bay.
Assembly majority is in play
Democrats are aiming to retake the majority in the Assembly this cycle, and are running candidates in 97 of 99 Assembly districts towards that goal. Republicans have candidates running in 84 seats.
Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) said last week that Democrats believe voters deserve a choice, which is why they recruited so many candidates.
“They deserve a choice between the same obstruction and backwards thinking that we've come to accept from our Republican colleagues or Assembly Democrats who will work to implement real meaningful policy that will improve the lives of working Wisconsinites,” she said.
Neubauer said Assembly Democrats will “put the people first when we retake the majority” in November.
Republicans currently hold a 64-seat majority, so Democrats would need to flip 15 seats to reverse that.
Baldauff said she thinks there are multiple paths to Democrat winning the Assembly majority, especially with the potential for turnout to be high in November.
“The opportunity to have fair legislative maps, have these competitive districts, to have communities, like Sheboygan, be able to vote as a community — Wausau, Chippewa Valley — seeing those communities be able to come together and have their voices heard in these competitive races where they get to vote as one, people are gonna show up,” Baldauff said. “And I think that opens up multiple paths to Democrats taking control in the Assembly.”
Joe Sheehan, a former superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District and executive director of the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corporation, is challenging Rep. Amy Binsfeld (R-Sheboygan) in the 26th Assembly district, which represents Sheboygan and has a 52.1% Democratic lean according to a Marquette analysis.
Rep. Patrick Snyder (R-Schofield) is running for reelection against Democrat Yee Leng Xiong, a Marathon County Board Supervisor, for the 85th Assembly district, which covers Wausau.
Jensen said it would be incredibly rare for a flip of 15 seats, but that Republicans know they’re going to lose some seats. There are seats that he still thinks can be won, however, including those where sitting legislators are running.
“Republicans were smart to get a lot of incumbents to run in these seats, even if the seat went from lean-Republican to lean-Democrat,” Jensen said. “They're still running there and… even if they split those, they hang on to the majority and historically, they have won almost all of those seats that are in the lean category.”
Jensen said the goal for Republicans this year and in the long run is to try to maximize the number of seats they keep.
“They're slowly going to bleed seats to the Democrats cycle after cycle throughout the rest of the decade,” Jensen said.
Jensen said Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2014 and recently lost his reelection bid for mayor of Dodgeville, has never had a favorable map, but has continued to win. In the race for the 51st Assembly district, Novak faces Democrat Elizabeth Grabe, a Mount Horeb real estate agent and farm manager, in November.
Rep. Jessie Rodriguez (R-Oak Creek), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2013, will face Democrat David Marsteller, a healthcare advocate and former businessman, in the race for the 21st Assembly District. The district leans Democratic under the new maps, Oak Creek and parts of Milwaukee and Greenfield. Jensen said he thinks that it will be close and she will have to “get every vote,” but he thinks Rodriguez could hang on to the seat.
“She's a mom with a kid in school, and she's worked for the district hard for a long time,” Jensen said. “If the Democrats had nominated a moderate Democrat, I'm not sure that there's any way she could hang onto the seat… It will be difficult for her to hold on. She will have to get every vote.”
Baldauff said that she agrees that Rodriguez has been an effective messenger for Republicans, but she still thinks the seat is winnable for Democrats.
“We've got a candidate who is an incredible advocate when it comes to talking about issues that people can relate to, especially somebody who's got an incredible health care story personally as somebody who is recipient of a heart transplant,” she said.
Another race to watch is the 61st Assembly district, where Rep. Bob Donovan (R-Greenfield) is running for reelection against LuAnn Bird, a former school board member and executive director of Wisconsin’s League of Women Voters. The two ran against each other once before in 2022, and Donovan won with 51% of the vote.
Jensen said that the incumbents have a “connection with the voters that supersedes” the presidential, Senate and Congressional races in Wisconsin.
“There's a personal connection that many of those people have built with voters over the years that's valuable, and it's not like it's a lock, it allows them to run three or four points ahead of the rest of the ticket and under the new maps,” he said. “There are a lot of seats that are in the range of three or four points, and Republicans should be able to hang on to a good number then and I think that's why they'll return in the majority there.”
Baldauff said that she is also confident that Democratic incumbents will win.
Rep. Jodi Emerson (D-Eau Claire), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2018, is running for reelection against Republican Michele Magadance Skinner, an Eau Claire County Board member.
Rep. Jill Billings (D-LaCrosse), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2011, will face Republican Cedric Schnitzler, who currently serves as chair of the Monroe County Board.
Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska), who was first elected to the Assembly in 2011, is running for reelection against Ryan Huebsch, Wisconsin Conservative Energy Forum Executive Director and son of former Rep. Mike Huebsch.
Baldauff said Doyle is someone who has been representing his district well over the years and has “shown up,” which gives her confidence in his chances for reelection. Jensen said that he thinks the race could become one about “change,” since Doyle has been in office for many years and Huebsch is young, and it will likely be close.
“It's a reasonable argument to say, ‘Give somebody else a chance to show some leadership in the area,” Jensen said.
Correction: This story was updated to correctly identify the 14th SD.
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