With Wisconsin’s ‘BOW’ counties trending less red, Democrats target Fox Valley voters

Lawrence University student Megan Eisenstein (left) speaking at a repreoductive rights roundtable in Appleton last week as Emily Tseffos (right), a Democratic Assembly candidate and chair of the Outagamie County Democratic party chair, listens. (Baylor Spears | Wisconsin Examiner)

FOX VALLEY — Democrat Emily Tseffos was stood up by her incumbent opponent Rep. Dave Murphy (R-Greenville), who is seeking his sixth term in the state Assembly, twice before she launched her campaign for Wisconsin’s 56th Assembly District.

The first time, Tesffos, a mother of three, said she got a babysitter and sat waiting at a restaurant in the district but he never showed up. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, she said she scheduled a second meeting. Then, it happened again.

“I was like, we pay your salary, sir, and you are supposed to be listening to people, even if it’s not aligned with what you believe to be true.” Tseffos, who also serves as chair of the Outagamie County Democratic Party, said. She said she later spoke with Murphy after visiting his office in the Wisconsin State Capitol (She was already there for a meeting about Child Care Counts). “I threw my hat in the ring shortly after that. We deserve better and I’m trying to run a campaign that reminds people that we deserve better.”

Outagamie County alongside Brown and Winnebago Counties make up Wisconsin’s ‘BOW’ counties — a growing population center in the Fox Valley that includes the cities of Green Bay and Appleton.

The battleground region could play a role in determining control of Wisconsin’s state Legislature as several newly competitive seats are up for grabs under recently adopted maps. Fox Valley voters could also determine the results of competitive federal races, including the presidential election. (The counties were identified by Politico as helping President Joe Biden win in 2020.)

The region has been trending less red in recent elections, and Democrats are hoping to accelerate that trend this election year up and down the ballot.

Outagamie County

“This is a super purple county, so the fact that we’re in the battleground state of the moment but then in a county that, for the first time in 15 years, went blue for [Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet] Protasiewicz — like, that’s huge to us,” Tseffos said. “So we recognize the responsibility of making sure we’re getting every single progressive and Democrat and independent that aligns with the Democratic ideals to turn out in November.”

Former President Donald Trump won Outagamie County in 2020 with 53.8% of the vote. Biden had 43.9%, representing an improvement for the Democratic candidate when compared to 2016. During the 2022 midterms, unsuccessful Republican candidate Tim Michels carried the county with almost 53% of the vote, while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers received almost 46%.

The following spring the county swung in favor of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose campaign focused heavily on restoring abortion rights, with 51.5% voting for her over conservative former Justice Dan Kelly.

The 56th Assembly District, which includes part of Outagamie County and Waupaca County, is not one of Democrats’ top target seats to flip, and CN Analysis rates the district as “Solid R”. Still, Tseffos has been knocking doors there every day.

On Friday last week, Tseffos drove 30 minutes outside of Appleton to Lebanon, Wis., a small town in Waupaca County, to knock on people’s doors in a rural part of the district.

“Just talking politics with strangers,” Tseffos would say when someone had a look of confusion by her presence. Sometimes she would joke about how that’s what everyone wants to do on a Friday. It was her way of easing into conversations with people at their front doors, in their yards and as they walked their dogs.

After breaking the ice, Tseffos asked people about the issues that matter the most to them and tried to find common ground. She listened to their concerns, then made her case for why they should vote for her — and other Democrats — next month.

Tim, an older white man who was in his garage when Tseffos walked up his driveway, said divided politics was a big concern for him, and that he was planning to vote a straight Democratic ticket.

“I’m tired of the Republicans,” he told Tseffos. By the end of the conversation, he agreed to let Tseffos put one of her yard signs in his front yard, but declined a Harris-Walz sign. He said his neighbor is a Republican and he wanted to keep things civil.

Tseffos heard about concerns about the state of roads from multiple people, and she told them she could be the “squeaky wheel” that would help get those projects done. A Trump voter spoke to her about his concerns about immigration, and how he thought the border was more secure during Trump’s presidency. She tried to steer the conversation towards state-level issues, including education, to see if she could get him to split his ticket.

A couple of people said they didn’t have any concerns or weren’t planning on voting in which case Tseffos gave them her spiel and tried to convince them that they should vote. She told these voters about her support for increasing public education funding, including special education funding, improving birth control affordability and accessibility and that she generally wants to work on bringing people together.

At the last door, Tseffos spoke to an older couple, Dale and Janice, who said they were Christians and don’t believe in abortion except for in extreme cases.

“We don’t like abortion,” Janice said at one point in the conversation. “There have been millions of babies tossed aside.”

Tseffos told the couple that she was a “fellow Christian,” who wouldn’t entertain abortion for herself, and as a mother, she knows “how precious life is.” However, as a victim of sexual violence, she said she also knows how terrible the world can be. She emphasized that bans could have an outsized impact on women late in pregnancy, who “desperately” want to have a baby, but are dealing with severe complications.

“That’s the problem with bans for me,” Tseffos said to the couple, adding that heartbeat bills are also problematic for her.

In the rest of the conversation, they touched on the cost of child care, school and the need for the inclusion of rural voices in government. Tseffos said, reflecting on the conversation, that she felt like she made progress because she was able to explain her thinking to them.

Winnebago County

Vice President Kamala Harris came to Ripon, Wisconsin , which sits just south of Winnebago County, last week to hold a rally with Liz Cheney, who made a pitch to Republican voters who don’t like Trump that they should support Harris. Chair of the Winnebago County Democratic Party Marcia Steele told the Examiner during the rally that enthusiasm for Harris has been unbelievable. Steele has served as party chair on and off for about 20 years.

“If it comes down to Wisconsin, more than likely would come down to Winnebago County, Brown County and Outagamie County… so we are very fortunate that we’re starting to get more enthusiasm in our area,” Steele said.

Steele said that the enthusiasm is helping, especially as Democrats seek to flip seats by running candidates in newly created districts in the state legislative races. A lot of volunteers are showing up to knock doors and make phone calls, she said.

“We’ve had… people that have never done it before. It’s just unbelievable — unbelievable. And the older people that have been doing it for a long time, recognize it and just keep saying, yes, sign me up for another shift,” Steele said. “In the Fox Valley, we’ve got the new 18th Senate District, which we can make it blue, which would be great, and then we’ve got the new 53rd [Assembly District], which we could make that blue, so it’ll be huge for the Legislature going in to have more people than it just all being a gerrymandered state.”

The 18th Senate District is made up of Appleton in Outagamie County and Menasha, Neenah and Oshkosh in Winnebago County. Kris Alfheim, a member of the Appleton Common Council, is running for the 18th Senate District against Republican Anthony Phillips, a cancer physician who wants to keep the district red.

The 53rd Assembly District encompasses Neenah, Menasha and part of Appleton. Democrat Duane Shukoski, a Neenah retiree, faces Republican Dean Kaufert, the former Neenah mayor and a former Assembly member.

The two races are some of Democrats’ top targets as they battle to gain more seats in the state Legislature. Republicans currently hold a 64-seat majority in the 99-seat Assembly and a 22-seat supermajority in the 33-seat Senate.

“If we can flip the Assembly or at least be close this year,… and get us closer to the Senate [majority] in 2026, we can be the forward Wisconsin it was when I moved here in ‘89,” Steele, who is originally from Michigan, said.

Reproductive rights

Reproductive health issues are one of the issues that Democrats in the area are hoping will bring voters out to the polls. Tseffos was surprised to see the large margin that Protasiewicz won by in Outagamie County in April 2023.

“Fair maps and reproductive health… that’s what they kept beating down,” Tseffos said. “It made us realize locally — continue to talk about reproductive health and what that means to people and what the realities are for folks.”

After her daily door knocking last week, Tseffos joined Alfheim and Shukoski at a roundtable event in Appleton to talk about reproductive health issues.

Lawrence University student Megan Eisenstein, who attended the event, explained that when Roe v. Wade was overturned, it changed the way she felt about going to school in Wisconsin. She’s from Illinois.

“I felt pretty safe there to make any choices that I needed to reproductive health-wise, but I knew that I was going to a state where I wasn’t able to make those choices after Roe v. Wade was overturned, and so I started to really dread going to college as a whole,” Eisenstein said.

Eisenstein, who is social chair for her campus’s college Democrats group and also interns with the state party, told the Examiner that she became politically active in 2022 after starting school.

“I didn’t really see politics as being something where you could actually make a difference,” Eisenstein said. “Coming here to Wisconsin, where every single voice matters, every door you knock matters, it really inspired me to get a little more involved.”

This will be her first time voting in a presidential election, and she has also been helping knock doors for Alfheim and other candidates. She said the issue is a good “rallying cry” for people.

“It serves as the foundation for a lot of liberal values, and so it becomes about more than just reproductive freedom, and it also becomes about freedom for other things, and also for caring for people who might not be like you,” Eisenstein said.

“Coming here to Wisconsin, where every single voice matters, every door you knock matters, it really inspired me to get a little more involved.”

– Megan Eisenstein, a Lawrence student

Democratic candidates in the district emphasized their support for access to abortion, birth control, infertility treatments and control of their health decisions.

“Democrats get it — people don’t want politicians in Madison or anywhere else making their personal health decisions for them,” Alfheim said. She said she would work towards restoring women’s access to reproductive health care if elected.

During the roundtable in Appleton, Alfheim sought to differentiate her position from her opponent Phillips. She commented on  Trump’s running mate JD Vance , that some Republican candidates’ public and private comments on reproductive health differ, and she sees this with her opponent, whom she described as “anti-choice.”

The Phillips campaign declined an interview request from the Wisconsin Examiner. On his campaign website, Phillips lists “Advocating for a culture of Life to protect the lives of the unborn” as one of the issues that matter to him. He previously told the Examiner that he would support a referendum on the issue, and believes people would favor some level of restrictions.

“You don’t get to take away what you say in private amongst your peers and then make me think it’s OK out here,” Alfheim said. “That’s an Integrity issue. We should be whoever we are. Own how you feel and be strong enough to say it out loud every time… We have seen it with everyone. They are clearly stating they are against it and then they are slowly backing away.”

Brown County

Brown County — home to the Green Bay Packers — is the last of the three competitive counties in the region where Democrats are aiming to improve their margins.

In 2016, Trump won the county with 52% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton only garnered 41%. Trump won the county, again, in 2020 with 52.7% of the vote. Biden got 45.5%, representing an improvement for Democrats compared to 2016.

During the 2022 midterms, unsuccessful Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels carried the county with 51% of the vote, while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers received 47%. The following spring the county swung in favor of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose campaign focused heavily on abortion, with 51.5% voting for her over conservative former Justice Kelly.

“We joke a lot in the office, ‘Welcome to the political epicenter of the country,’” Christy Welch, who chairs the county Democratic Party and is running for the state Assembly, said. “It is pretty wild… [it’s] the largest swing county in this critical state and this battle between the potential end of democracy or just being able to keep building on everything Biden-Harris got going.”

We joke a lot in the office, ‘Welcome to the political epicenter of the country,'

– Christy Welch, who chairs the Brown County Democratic Party and is running for the state Assembly

The region has had several visits from the Harris-Walz campaign. Vice presidential candidate Tim Walz plans to campaign in Green Bay next week, according to a media advisory issued Thursday. Other surrogates including U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and First Lady Jill Biden have also campaigned in the area.

Welch said population growth contributes to the changing political cast of the city but that there are also a lot of people who are opposed to the direction the Republican party has taken.

“I’m knocking a lot of doors and I have run into so many people that tell me that they used to vote Republican but they just don’t want anything to do with the Republican party, the way it’s operating today, and so they’re voting for Democrats,” Welch said. “The divisiveness and not focusing on actual policies and solutions, just always looking backward and blaming. They don’t want to have anything to do with that.”

Welch is also running in a competitive race against Republican Benjamin Franklin, a De Pere business owner, for the 88th Assembly District, which includes Bellevue, Allouez and De Pere.

In the Legislature, Welch said she has been speaking with voters about the cost of groceries, housing, health care and child care. Her priorities for the Legislature overlap with these issues. She said she wants to increase public education funding and continue funding for the state’s Child Care Counts program. She said she also wants Wisconsin to take the federal Medicaid expansion and to repeal the state’s 1849 law, which caused all abortions to cease in the state for more than a year after Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Through door knocking, Welch said that she has been able to let some voters know about the new legislative maps.

“Not everyone pays as close attention and some people just didn’t realize… It is nice to let people know, who consider themselves Democrats and are not totally in the loop on the maps, what that means. We’re definitely going to pick up more seats. Hopefully, we’re going to get the majority. That gives them some hope too,” Welch said.

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