Allies of President Biden seeking to beat back calls to remove him from the Democratic ticket are framing the debate within the Senate Democratic caucus as a choice between Biden and Vice President Harris, suggesting that Biden remains the safer bet.
These Biden supporters claim Harris would almost certainly be the replacement for Biden if he were to decide to not run for reelection.
But they argue she’s not a safer bet to win than Biden, particularly in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, despite Biden’s own political weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
In truth, it’s not entirely clear that Harris would be a lock to replace Biden if he were to decide not to run, though she would carry several key advantages heading into any fast-tracked selection process and would be seen as a favorite.
But by defining the choice as one between Biden and Harris, Democratic lawmakers are privately trying convince their skeptical colleagues to stick with the 81-year-old president, warts and all.
One Democratic senator firmly behind Biden’s reelection bid said Harris would no doubt win the nomination if Biden steps aside, even if party officials set up a rushed competition to pick a new nominee.
“How are you going to skip over the first vice president who is a woman of color,” asked the lawmaker, echoing an argument that other Democratic strategists have floated since Biden’s disastrous debate on July 27.
One Democratic strategist who argues that Biden can still beat former President Trump said “it is 99-percent guaranteed it’s Kamala Harris” who would become the nominee if Biden drops his reelection bid.
“I find it very hard for our structure to deny the vice president, who happens to be a Black female, an opportunity to represent the party,” the strategist said. “I just don’t think that’s going to happen that they’re going to pass her over.
“So then the question is can she be better in those six states,” the operative added, referring to the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democratic senators backing Biden have made similar arguments to colleagues in private conversations about whether to pivot to a new nominee, according sources familiar with those conversations.
A national poll from the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi released to Politico this week did show Harris doing better versus Trump than Biden. In the polling, Biden trailed Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent, while Harris led Trump 42 percent to 41 percent.
The Biden campaign itself reportedly has quietly done polling on Harris’s strength as a candidate in a head-to-head match-up against Trump. But some Democratic lawmakers and strategists suspect that is being done to show that Biden is a safer bet than Harris to beat Trump in November.
There have been no signs of air between Biden and Harris amid the political drama surrounding the White House.
Harris has insisted that Biden will be the nominee, while Biden himself praised Harris at his Thursday press conference as “the most qualified person” after himself to run for president, and he lauded her leadership on protecting women’s rights to make their own medical decisions, including on abortion, a top issue in this year’s race.
Senate Democrats up for reelection this year declined to talk about Harris as a potential nominee, given the drama swirling around Biden.
“That’s a question I don’t really want to get into,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said when asked whether the vice president would be a “viable” nominee for the top job.
Biden’s allies have painted any miniconvention or other competition to find a new nominee as something that would almost certainly result with Harris atop the ticket in November.
But Democratic lawmakers who are deeply skeptical about Biden’s chances of beating Trump have pushed back by arguing that other potential candidates would have a chance to make their cases to party delegates before they vote at the convention in Chicago next month.
“Given the complexities of selecting a replacement, that is a huge order,” one Democratic senator said but argued that if it’s clear Biden can’t win, “you try something else.”
Democratic strategist Steve Jarding argued that Harris or another new nominee would have an advantage in the general election because “she at least would have a chance to define herself,” while voters’ views of Biden are unlikely to change in the next few months.
Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, argued that Harris would make a strong nominee.
“I think she would be in the driver’s seat to get the nomination,” he said. “It would not be a coronation for Vice President Harris but she would be the strong favorite to win the nomination.”
“I think she is a much stronger national political figure than when she was named vice president,” he added. “She’s done a great job, publicly, the last several months, where there’s been a lot more scrutiny.”
Harris has a number of advantages to secure the nomination if Biden drops out.
She would have ready access to the more than $240 million that the Biden-Harris campaign reported in cash on hand at the end of June. And Democratic strategists assume that many of 3,894 delegates now pledged to Biden would flow to her as his running mate and partner for the past four years.
“I have no doubt Republicans would look to pick [Harris’s record] apart. She would have to make the case she is a Biden-style Democrat. Every candidate would have challenges, that would be hers,” Kessler added.
At the same time, Harris would come with some political advantage that those involved in the congressional debates about Biden are familiar with.
Harris famously struggled to define her views on health care during the 2020 election, when she pledged support for Medicare-for-all but then stumbled on the question of whether that would entail the elimination of private health insurance.
She also backed publicly funded health care for immigrants in the country illegally in the 2020 Democratic primary, something that Biden also signaled he would support as he battled for liberal voters before clinching the nomination.
“I am opposed to any policy that would deny in our country any human being from access to public safety, public education or public health period,” she told CNN’s Jake Tapper in 2019, a statement Republicans are sure to resurface if she becomes the nominee.
Jarding said the truth is that “we don’t know how good” Harris would be as a nominee. He said those suggesting she’d be the definite nominee if Biden dropped out — and a weaker nominee at that — are looking for an excuse.
“People complain and say, ‘She hasn’t done much as vice president.’ Who the hell does a lot as vice president? Very few do. I think it’s an excuse because they have no other excuse,” Jarding added of Biden allies who want to shift the focus to Harris’s possible weaknesses.
“It doesn’t help the party to say, ‘Well, I don’t know if [Biden] can win but, boy, Harris can’t win and we know we’d lose bigger so let’s go with Biden.’ That’s a false narrative,” he said.
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