Massachusetts has the fewest number of contested state legislative primaries in 2024, while Wisconsin has the most

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 16, 2024, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Massachusetts has the fewest number of contested state legislative primaries in 2024, while Wisconsin has the most
2. A closer look at Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District Republican primary
3. 95 years ago today: Texas voters defeated an amendment that would have added six justices to the state supreme court

Massachusetts has the fewest number of contested state legislative primaries in 2024, while Wisconsin has the most

Twenty-six states have held state legislative primaries, and 19 have yet to hold primaries. Since 2010, we’ve analyzed how many candidates run per seat, how many seats are open, and how many contested primaries will take place. For data on all the states we’ve analyzed so far this year, click here.

Today, we turn our attention to Massachusetts and Wisconsin. The former has the fewest number of contested state legislative primaries since 2010, while the latter has the most in the same period.

All 200 seats of the Massachusetts General Court are up for election this year.

There are 33 contested state legislative primaries—27 Democratic and six Republican—representing 8.3% of all possible primaries that could have occurred in the Bay State this year. That is below the average for both parties from 2010 to 2022 when an average of 36.9 Democratic primaries and an average of 8.3 Republican primaries were contested.

There are also 181 incumbents running for reelection, which is higher than the average of 179.7 from 2010 to 2022. Eighteen incumbents, or about 9.9%, are facing primary challengers in 2024. Between 2010 to 2022, an average of 19.1, or 10.6% of incumbents faced a primary challenger. There is also a below-average number of retiring incumbents. Nineteen incumbents did not file for reelection in 2024, while the average number of retirements from 2010 to 2022 was 20.3.

Massachusetts has had a Democratic trifecta since 2023, when Gov. Maura Healey (D) assumed office. Since 1992, the state has had 10 years of Democratic trifectas and no Republican trifectas.

Wisconsin has 50 contested state legislative primaries this year, representing 22% of all possible primaries that could have occurred and the highest since 2010. Twenty-three of these primaries are for Democrats, a 156% increase from the nine contested primaries in 2022. Twenty-seven primaries are for Republicans, a decrease of 7% from the 29 contested primaries in 2022.

This is due largely to a new high of 27 incumbents facing primary challenges, representing 31% of all incumbents running for re-election. The previous high was 15 incumbents in 2012. The average number of primaries to feature an incumbent each election cycle from 2010 to 2022 was nine. Four of the 27 incumbents facing primary challenges are Democrats, and 23 are Republicans.

The number of open seats this year in Wisconsin also ties with 2022 as the most open seats since 2010.

In total, 269 major party candidates—145 Democrats and 124 Republicans—filed to run. All 99 State Assembly seats and 16 of the 33 Senate seats are up for election. Thirty of those seats are open, meaning no incumbents filed. The average number of open seats each cycle from 2010 to 2020 was 21.

Wisconsin is one of 10 states with a divided government. The state was a Republican trifecta from 2011 until 2019 when Governor Tony Evers (D) assumed office. Republicans currently have a 64-35 majority in the State Assembly and a 22-10 majority in the Senate.

Through June, Ballotpedia has covered 22,830 elections in 52 states this year. Of that total, 16,702 (73%) were uncontested and 6,128 (27%) were contested. Across 44 states, 85 state legislative chambers are holding regular legislative elections this year. These elections are for 5,793 of the country’s 7,386 state legislative seats (78%).

Republicans control 54.91% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats hold 44.33%. Republicans hold a majority in 56 chambers, and Democrats hold the majority in 41 chambers. Two chambers (Alaska House and Alaska Senate) are organized under multipartisan, power-sharing coalitions.

A closer look at Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District Republican primary

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Republican primary in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District on Aug. 1. Two candidates are running: incumbent Andy Ogles (R) and Courtney Johnston (R). Race ratings outlets describe the general election as Solid/Safe or Likely Republican. Ogles defeated Democrat Heidi Campbell (D) with 56% of the vote in 2022.

Ogles was first elected in 2022 after winning the Republican nomination with 35.4% of the vote in a 10-candidate primary. According to Hoodline, “One of the standout concerns among local Republicans is the need for a united front against Ogles, who is often viewed as an inflexible incumbent.” A third candidate, Tom Guarente (R), filed to run but withdrew from the primary. The Nashaville Banner’s Stephen Elliott quoted Guarente as saying that a “split ticket would make unseating Ogles harder.”

Ogles is running on his record, saying he “has always been a fighter, whether for limited government, better economic policies, or more freedom.” Ogles said he is “committed to his mission of upholding the Constitution and excelling in the representation of Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District.” Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Ogles on May 11, 2023.

Johnston is a member of the Nashville Metro Council. Johnston said she is running because Ogles has not delivered for the district during his first term, saying the district “deserves a Member of Congress who is interested in fighting for our beliefs instead of just fighting for headlines.” Johnston is running on her council record, saying she secured funding for parks and law enforcement and fought tax increases.

As of June 18, Ogles has raised $139,852 in fundraising and had $95,349 cash on hand. Johnston had not reported any fundraising. Ogles’ fundraising total was the second-lowest for any U.S. House incumbent running for re-election, surpassing only Rep. Scott DesJarlais’ (R) $134,518. Ogles’ cash-on-hand total was the 15th-lowest among any House incumbent running for re-election.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) beat Joe Biden (D) 54.5%-43.2%.

Two U.S. House incumbents have lost in primaries so far this year.

95 years ago today: Texas voters defeated an amendment that would have added six justices to the state supreme court

On this date in 1929, voters defeated Texas Proposition 1, a constitutional amendment that would have increased the membership of the Texas Supreme Court from three to nine members and required a continuous session of the Court. The vote was 49,681 (39.2%) to 77,066 (60.8%).

Voters changed their minds in 1945, approving Texas Proposition 2, which increased the size of the Texas Supreme Court from three to nine. The vote was 92,114 (53.7%) to 79,295 (46.26%).

Today, Texas is one of six other states with nine-member supreme courts.

Our coverage of this measure is part of Ballotpedia’s Historic Ballot Measures project (HBM), which will document nearly 200 years of direct democracy in the U.S. This ongoing research effort will provide an unparalleled resource for researchers, reporters, and the voting public on how ballot measures have evolved, the issues they’ve covered, and the role they have played in our civic life.