Eleven vulnerable trifectas this November

Welcome to the Thursday, July 25, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Eleven vulnerable trifectas this November
2. Voter identification initiative certified in Nevada for November ballot
3. In this episode of On the Ballot – How minor party candidates could affect this year’s elections

Eleven vulnerable trifectas this November

Every year, Ballotpedia releases an annual report on trifecta vulnerability. This year’s report found that 11 state government trifectas could break up, and nine new ones could form in the November elections. Of the 11 vulnerable trifectas, seven are Democratic and four are Republican.

Our report looks at what is required for each individual component of a state government trifecta to change party control. For more on our methodology, click here.

A trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers. There are currently 40 trifectas: 23 Republican and 17 Democratic. The remaining 10 states have divided governments. This is the most trifectas since at least 1992 when our data on trifectas began. As of January 2024, approximately 41.7% of Americans live in states with a Democratic trifecta, 41.0% in states with a Republican trifecta, and 17.4% in states with a divided government.

Trifecta control is significant because policy changes often follow changes in trifecta status, allowing a political party to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or, in some cases, maintaining a divided government—often becomes a major election priority for state parties.

Eleven states are holding gubernatorial elections this year. There will also be elections for 85 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers. Trifecta status is at stake in 44 states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices are taking place in:

• 20 of the 23 states with Republican trifectas
• 15 of the 17 states with Democratic trifectas
• Nine of the 10 states with divided governments

Recent changes in state government trifectas

Heading into this year’s elections, Louisiana is the most recent state to become a trifecta after Republicans won the governorship in 2023. The 2022 elections resulted in Republicans losing a trifecta in Arizona, where Democrats won the governorship. Democrats gained four trifectas in 2022—Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota—and lost one in Nevada. Between 2010 and 2023, 80 state government trifectas were broken or gained.

There were 40 trifectas across the country as a result of the 2023 elections. Between 1992 and 2024, the most trifectas for each party were 18 for Democrats (1993) and 26 for Republicans (2018).

Democratic state government trifectas

Based on the methodology used in our report, the Democratic trifecta in Oregon is highly vulnerable. Oregon will not hold a gubernatorial election this year, but Democrats have a 17-12-1 majority in the state Senate and a 35-24-1 majority in the state House. Republicans need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and seven seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

Democratic trifectas in Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota are moderately vulnerable. Democratic trifectas in Connecticut, Delaware, and Washington are considered somewhat vulnerable.

Republican state government trifectas

Based on the methodology used in our report, New Hampshire and Texas are highly vulnerable Republican trifectas. The New Hampshire governor’s race is rated as a Toss-up, and Democrats need to win three seats to win the state Senate and seven seats to win the state House. There is also no gubernatorial election in Texas this year. However, Democrats need to win four seats to win the state Senate and 12 seats to win the state House.

The Republican trifecta in Georgia is classified as moderately vulnerable, and the Republican trifecta in Iowa is rated somewhat vulnerable.

Divided state governments

We also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states currently with divided governments. Possible Democratic trifecta pickups are Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Possible Republican trifecta pickups include Alaska and Nevada. Either party could establish a trifecta in North Carolina and Vermont.

Voter identification initiative certified in Nevada for November ballot

Nevada’s Secretary of State’s Office placed an initiative that would require photo identification to vote on the November ballot.

Currently, 35 states require voters to present identification to vote at the polls on Election Day. Of these states, 24 require photo identification and 11 accept other forms of identification. The remaining 15 states do not require voters to present identification to vote at the polls on Election Day. Nevada is one of these 15 states.

Seven states voted on ballot measures to enact voter identification requirements. Voters approved six. Voters rejected one in Minnesota in 2012. Nebraska is the most recent state to vote on a photo identification ballot measure. In 2022, voters approved Initiative 432 65.45% to 34.55%.

The Nevada initiative would require residents to present a form of photo identification to verify their identity when voting in person. Acceptable forms of photo identification would include a driver’s license, a state or federal government-issued identification card, government-issued employee photo identification, a U.S. passport, a U.S. military card, a Nevada public college-issued student photo identification card, a tribal photo identification card, a Nevada concealed firearms permit, or another form of government-issued photo identification the state legislature may approve.

If a voter is voting by mail, they would have to verify their identity using the last four digits of their driver’s license or social security number. They could also use the number the county clerk provided when the voter registered to vote if the voter does not have a driver’s license or social security number.

Nevada Republican Party chairman Michael J. McDonald said, “The initiative to require photo identification or secure personal information for voting purposes is crucial for maintaining the integrity and transparency of our electoral system.”

Silver State Voices executive director Emily Persaud-Zamora said, “The proposed voter ID measure would dramatically change our voting system and complicate voting for individuals in our communities … Voter ID laws disproportionately impact voters of color and do nothing to make our elections more secure.”

For the amendment to go into effect, Nevada voters will have to approve the amendment in two subsequent general elections—2024 and 2026. Nevada is the only state that requires a majority vote for initiated constitutional amendments in two subsequent elections for approval.

On today’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Ballotpedia Podcast Producer Frank Festa interviews Barry Burden, professor of American politics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, about minor party presidential candidates and how they will factor into this year’s election.

Festa and Burden discuss the current minor party presidential candidates and how they compare to minor party candidates in the 19th and 20th centuries. They also discuss legal barriers that have limited minor party influence, whether there’s a demand for prominent minor parties, how a two-party system came to dominate U.S. politics, and what the future of minor parties may look like.

Subscribe to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app to learn more about Burden’s work on minor parties! This episode will drop Thursday morning.